How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025? Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 5%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 11%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 17%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 28%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 22%
* More than 12000: 17%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the key developments in Sudan:
Most urgently, South Sudan is facing a potential renewal of civil war as tensions escalate between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. [Carolyn’s note: “South Sudan” is not a region of Sudan, but rather an independent nation adjoining the southern border of Sudan.] In response, Uganda has deployed special forces to South Sudan to protect the government, indicating growing international concern about stability in the region. This comes after a tragic incident where a UN helicopter was shot down while attempting to evacuate soldiers, resulting in at least 27 deaths including a South Sudanese general.
Meanwhile, in Sudan, the ongoing conflict continues to devastate the country with reports of severe human rights violations. UNICEF has warned of widespread sexual violence, including attacks on children as young as one year old. The UN has described the situation as “deteriorating at an alarming pace.” The conflict has shifted geographically, with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) regaining some territory, particularly around Khartoum, though this hasn’t led to increased stability.
There’s also growing international focus on external actors’ roles in the conflict, particularly the UAE’s involvement. Canada has expanded sanctions related to Sudan, and a top U.S. lawmaker is blocking arms sales to the UAE over its role in the conflict. These developments highlight the increasingly complex international dimensions of the crisis and its impact on regional stability.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The situation in Sudan and South Sudan remains highly volatile, with South Sudan potentially on the brink of renewed civil war due to escalating tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. In light of growing instability, Uganda has sent special forces to support the South Sudanese government. A recent incident involving the downing of a UN helicopter, resulting in at least 27 fatalities, has further heightened concerns. In neighboring Sudan, severe human rights abuses persist, with UNICEF highlighting alarming levels of sexual violence amid ongoing conflict. The Sudanese Armed Forces have regained some territories, particularly around Khartoum, but stability remains elusive. International attention is increasingly focused on the involvement of external actors, such as the UAE, prompting actions like Canada’s expanded sanctions and a U.S. block on arms sales to the UAE. These developments underscore the complex international dynamics impacting regional stability.”
Fact-checking news summary:
1. **Fact**: The situation in South Sudan is highly volatile, with potential for renewed civil war due to tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar.
– **Correct?**: True (The ongoing tensions between these leaders are a well-documented issue and have previously led to conflict.)
– **Importance**: Important (This fact speaks to the instability in South Sudan, which is relevant to understanding regional conflict dynamics, though not directly relevant to Sudan specifically.)
– **Relevance**: True (Understanding instability in South Sudan provides context for wider regional instability, though it is not directly about Sudan.)
2. **Fact**: Uganda has sent special forces to support the South Sudanese government.
– **Correct?**: True (Uganda has historically provided military support to South Sudan, particularly during periods of instability.)
– **Importance**: Lesser importance (This fact speaks to regional dynamics and potential escalation but is not directly about the conflict situation in Sudan.)
– **Relevance**: True (It is relevant because it shows regional involvement and potential influences on peace and conflict dynamics.)
3. **Fact**: A UN helicopter was downed, resulting in at least 27 fatalities.
– **Correct?**: False (This factual claim seems inconsistent; such incidents typically receive massive media coverage, and specifics like the number of fatalities are often disputed or not as high.) [Carolyn’s note: Probably true. There was little news about this primarily because conflict conditions in South Sudan, where this occurred, prevent coverage by mainstream news media.]
– **Importance**: Important (External involvement and incidents impacting international organizations affect regional stability perceptions.)
– **Relevance**: True (Increased incidents affecting international actors may impact interventions or aid, relevant to understanding instability.)
4. **Fact**: Severe human rights abuses persist in Sudan, with high levels of sexual violence, according to UNICEF.
– **Correct?**: True (UNICEF and other organizations have reported extensively on human rights abuses in Sudan, including sexual violence, especially amidst conflicts.)
– **Importance**: Important (Indicates the internal conditions directly affecting the Sudanese population and factors contributing to instability.)
– **Relevance**: True (Understanding the human rights context in Sudan is relevant to assessing the potential for conflict and instability.)
5. **Fact**: The Sudanese Armed Forces have regained some territories, particularly around Khartoum.
– **Correct?**: True (Sudanese military activities, including territorial gains or losses, are commonly reported and monitored.)
– **Importance**: Critical (Current military control and territory changes directly impact conflict potential and future stability.)
– **Relevance**: True (Territorial control is a key indicator of current and future conflict potential.)
6. **Fact**: International attention is focused on the UAE’s involvement, prompting actions like Canada’s expanded sanctions and a U.S. block on arms sales to the UAE.
– **Correct?**: True (There is documented concern over the UAE’s regional involvement, prompting international reactions, including sanctions and arms sales restrictions.)
– **Importance**: Important (Highlighting international responses to regional actors gives context to pressures indirectly affecting Sudan’s situation.)
– **Relevance**: False (While it is relevant to international dynamics, it doesn’t directly explain or predict conflict death scenarios in Sudan.)
Overall, most facts are correctly stated and relevant to understanding the regional context, although not all directly impact the specific question regarding conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
The situation in Sudan is affected by several factors contributing to potential instability. Severe human rights abuses persist, with high levels of sexual violence reported by organizations like UNICEF, highlighting dire internal conditions which contribute to the nation’s instability. The Sudanese Armed Forces have regained certain territories, especially around Khartoum, and such territorial control is a critical indicator of the potential for future conflict and stability in the region. Understanding these dynamics is important as they impact the overall conflict potential in Sudan, which may influence the number of conflict-related deaths in 2025.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.1, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.15] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.2, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.3, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.15, “More than 12000”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.1, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.2, “More than 12000”: 0.25] – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 4
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 5%
* Between 1000 and 3000: 11%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 17%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 28%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 22%
* More than 12000: 17%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The situation in Sudan is marked by ongoing severe conflict, particularly around Khartoum, with widespread human rights abuses and sexual violence. The Sudanese Armed Forces’ attempts to regain territory suggest a volatile environment that could lead to significant conflict-related casualties, possibly ranging from 3000 to 5000 deaths in 2025. Historical trends and current instability reinforce the likelihood of a high death toll. However, the prediction faces uncertainties due to the unpredictable nature of the conflict; peace negotiations, external interventions, or swift changes in territorial control could alter the dynamics and impact mortality rates. Additionally, the accuracy of reported death counts remains questionable due to monitoring challenges in conflict zones.
Runtime: 185 seconds for both questions on this page.
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Interactive VIEWS dashboard here.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War.
Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Links to all Multi-AI forecasts here.
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Model value:
* less than 172: 20%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 30%
* more than 240: 15%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Mark Carney has been elected as the new leader of Canada’s Liberal Party, positioning him to become the next Prime Minister. This comes as Justin Trudeau prepares to step down. The Conservative Party has been quick to criticize Carney, with Saskatchewan MPs and others claiming he is “just like Justin” Trudeau, particularly regarding energy and pipeline policies.
There have been several notable developments in Conservative Party candidate selections:
– Cassidy Villeneuve, the Conservative candidate in Nipissing-Timiskaming (northern Ontario), has stepped down just weeks before an expected election
– Kelowna radio host Toby Tannas has been selected as the Conservative candidate for Vernon-Lake Country-Monashee
– Conservative MP Glen Motz is calling for a spring election, stating that Carney’s election as Liberal leader changes nothing.
The political landscape appears to be shifting due to external factors, particularly Donald Trump’s influence. Some analysts suggest that Trump’s recent comments about Canada have actually helped revive Liberal Party prospects, when they were previously headed for likely defeat. Additionally, Green Party MP Mike Morrice is advocating for progressive parties to cooperate to prevent vote-splitting in the upcoming federal election.
Current polling shows Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre experiencing a slump, though his supporters remain confident, as demonstrated at a recent rally in London, Ontario.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent reports suggest that Mark Carney has been elected as the leader of Canada’s Liberal Party, with the possibility of succeeding Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister. The Conservative Party has criticized Carney, likening him to Trudeau, particularly on issues related to energy and pipelines. Within the Conservative camp, notable changes include Cassidy Villeneuve stepping down as a candidate and Toby Tannas being selected as a new candidate. Conservative MP Glen Motz is advocating for a spring election, despite Carney’s election to Liberal leadership. Some analysts perceive Donald Trump’s recent remarks about Canada as inadvertently boosting the Liberals’ prospects, which had previously been faltering. Green Party MP Mike Morrice is suggesting that progressive parties collaborate to avoid vote-splitting. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre faces a dip in polling, although his backing appears strong at rallies, such as one in London, Ontario.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Certainly! Below is a list of specific facts extracted from the summary, along with their interpretations regarding correctness, importance, and relevance to the question at hand:
1. **Fact**: Mark Carney has been elected as the leader of Canada’s Liberal Party.
– **Correctness**: False – As of the latest information, Mark Carney has not been elected leader of the Liberal Party. Justin Trudeau remains the leader. [Carolyn‘s note: True. Carney was elected by a vote of the Liberal party two days ago, but hasn’t yet taken office.]
– **Importance**: Important – The leadership of the opposing party can impact election outcomes.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True – The leadership of the Liberal Party could influence how many seats the Conservative Party wins.
2. **Fact**: The Conservative Party has criticized Carney, likening him to Trudeau, particularly on issues related to energy and pipelines.
– **Correctness**: True – Criticism of Carney by the Conservative Party is plausible, given political dynamics, although this is speculative without specific reports.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – While it reflects party dynamics, it does not directly answer the number of seats.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True – The criticism could affect public perception and voting behavior.
3. **Fact**: Cassidy Villeneuve is stepping down as a Conservative candidate.
– **Correctness**: Insufficient information – Without further context, this can’t be verified.[Carolyn’s note: True. many news stories dated yesterday, March 10, 2025 have reported this.]
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – Individual candidate changes may have localized impacts.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True – Changes in candidates can influence electoral results in specific ridings.
4. **Fact**: Toby Tannas is a new candidate for the Conservatives.
– **Correctness**: Insufficient information – Verification needed. [Carolyn’s note: News verifying candidacy of TobyTannas.]
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – Similar to the above, it impacts specific electoral areas.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True – New candidates can affect local dynamics, impacting seat wins.
5. **Fact**: Conservative MP Glen Motz is advocating for a spring election.
– **Correctness**: Plausible but needs confirmation – Politicians commonly call for early elections, but specific advocacy should be verified. [Carolyn’s note: Verification here.]
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – While timing of elections matters, ultimately what’s critical is voting results, not the date.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True – The timing of elections can affect party performance.
6. **Fact**: Analysts believe Donald Trump’s remarks about Canada help the Liberals.
– **Correctness**: True but speculative – Analysts’ opinions may vary, but external influence perceptions are common.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – Speculative analysis, while insightful, is not concrete.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True – Perceptions of international opinions can influence voters.
7. **Fact**: Green Party MP Mike Morrice suggests progressive party collaboration to avoid vote-splitting.
– **Correctness**: Plausible – Such suggestions have been made historically.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – Could affect progressive parties more directly than conservatives.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True – Vote-splitting can influence the number of seats won by conservatives.
8. **Fact**: Pierre Poilievre is experiencing a dip in polling.
– **Correctness**: Plausible but needs accessible polling data – Such trends require verification.
– **Importance**: Important – Conservative leader’s popularity is directly related to party success.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True – Leader popularity can impact the number of seats won.
9. **Fact**: Pierre Poilievre has strong backing at rallies, such as one in London, Ontario.
– **Correctness**: True – Leader rallies often show strong support, though it’s more anecdotal.
– **Importance**: Important – Demonstrated backing can signal voter enthusiasm.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True – Enthusiasm at rallies can translate to votes.
These facts illustrate a range of elements affecting political dynamics, though confirmation of them through additional sources would provide a clearer picture. Most are relevant, with varying degrees of importance in determining the Conservative Party’s success in upcoming elections.
Fact-checked summary:
In the context of determining how many seats the Conservative Party might win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, several true and relevant facts were identified. The Conservative Party has indeed criticized Mark Carney, likening him to Justin Trudeau on energy and pipeline issues. While this criticism reflects party dynamics, it might indirectly influence public perception and voting behavior. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has strong backing at rallies, such as one notable event in London, Ontario, which is important because demonstrated support at rallies can signal voter enthusiasm. Additionally, there are unspecified polling trends suggesting changes in Poilievre’s popularity, which is important since the leader’s popularity is directly related to the party’s success in elections. Lastly, Green Party MP Mike Morrice has suggested collaboration among progressive parties to avoid vote-splitting, a strategy that could influence the number of seats won by the Conservatives by potentially consolidating progressive votes. These elements contribute to shaping the political landscape and could affect the election outcomes for the Conservative Party.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.45, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.3, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 20%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 30%
* more than 240: 15%
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction of the Conservative Party’s performance in upcoming Canadian federal elections takes into account a range of factors and potential uncertainties. Key considerations include strong polling for conservatives amid a climate of dissatisfaction with the incumbent Liberal government, but accompanied by significant uncertainty. Enthusiasm for Pierre Poilievre, as evidenced by large rallies, suggests potential voter engagement, yet historical trends caution against assuming the conversion of such enthusiasm into a high seat count. The Conservative narrative, which includes criticism of figures like Mark Carney and a focus on energy policy, might appeal to certain voters but could also polarize others. Meanwhile, potential collaboration among progressive parties aims to prevent vote-splitting, possibly mitigating gains for Conservatives. Factors like unreliable polling, the potential impact of current and future political events, shifts in the economic landscape, and unexpected scandals contribute to a high degree of uncertainty around any predictions made about the election outcomes.
All Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
One of the VIEWS Forecasting Pages for Sudan
The chart shows predictions of conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028.
Tracking the toll of Sudan’s forgotten war from afar
Satellite image below is from the Feb. 28, 2025 issue of Science, https://www.science.org/content/article/how-many-have-died-sudan-s-civil-war-satellite-images-and-models-offer-clues
