How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election? Here’s what Jeremy‘s new version of his Multi-AI Oracle says.
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election
Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, let’s start by understanding the user’s query. They want current web results related to the Conservative Party of Canada in the ongoing 2025 federal election, including news, Wikipedia pages, official party sites, and prediction markets. They also want tables of relevant data and possibly a time series.
First, I need to go through the provided search results to find information about the Conservative Party. The results include multiple news articles from Global News, National Post, and others, as well as Wikipedia pages and polls.
Looking at the search results, the key points are:
1. **Polling Data**: The most recent polls from Ipsos (March 24-26, 2025) show the Liberals leading with 44% and Conservatives at 38% nationally. Earlier in January, the Conservatives had a larger lead, but that has narrowed. The Liberals are gaining in Ontario and Quebec, which are critical for seat counts. [1][4][7][9][15][16][17]
2. **Campaign Issues**: The top issue is handling U.S. President Trump’s tariffs and trade policies. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, are focusing on tax cuts, crime, and housing, but there’s internal criticism about not addressing Trump’s threats enough. Meanwhile, Liberal leader Mark Carney is seen as better equipped to handle international relations and economic challenges. [9][12][15][17][19]
3. **Internal Party Dynamics**: There are reports of internal strife within the Conservative Party, with strategists like Kory Teneycke criticizing the campaign’s focus. Despite this, Poilievre is drawing large crowds, though this doesn’t always translate to electoral success. [1][9][17]
4. **Historical Context**: The 2022 Conservative leadership election where Poilievre won overwhelmingly is relevant. The current election is a snap election called by Carney, with the Conservatives aiming to regain power after the Trudeau era. [2][12][17]
5. **Seat Projections**: While the popular vote is close, seat distribution is crucial. The Liberals lead in Ontario and Quebec, which are high-seat regions. Historical data from past elections (like 2021) shows seat counts don’t always align directly with popular vote percentages. [5][10][17]
6. **Policy Platforms**: The Conservatives have proposed tax cuts, GST removal on certain home purchases, and tougher crime policies. The Liberals focus on economic management and responding to U.S. tariffs. [17][19]
Now, constructing the answer. The summary should include current polling numbers, key issues, internal party dynamics, historical context, and policy differences. Tables would be useful to show polling trends and seat projections.
I need to ensure citations are accurate, using the provided search result indices. For example, the Ipsos poll from March 24-26 is in [15], and the seat counts from the 2021 election are in [10][17]. Also, the internal Conservative Party issues are discussed in [9] and [17].
Time series data: The available data points are from January (Conservatives at 43%, Liberals 25%) [16], March 18 (Liberals 42%, Conservatives 35%) [15], and March 24-26 (Liberals 44%, Conservatives 38%) [1][15]. These can be formatted into a table showing the changes over time.
Seat projections based on current polling can be inferred from historical patterns, though exact seat counts aren’t provided. The 2021 results and 2015 comparisons (where 39% gave a majority) suggest the Liberals might be approaching majority territory with 44% [4][7][17].
Finally, the answer should be structured with headers, bullet points for clarity, and tables where appropriate. Ensure all key points are covered and properly cited.
The Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, is navigating a tightening race in the 2025 federal election, with recent polls showing a narrowing gap against Mark Carney’s Liberals.
Below is a synthesis of key developments and data:
—
### **Current Polling and Trends**
Recent Ipsos polling (March 24–26, 2025) shows the Liberals at **44%** support among decided voters, while the Conservatives sit at **38%** [15]. This represents a shift from January 2025, when the Conservatives held a 21-point lead (43% to 22%) [16], underscoring the volatility of the campaign. Regional breakdowns highlight:
– **Ontario**: Liberals lead by 7 points (49% to 42%) [7].
– **Quebec**: Liberals dominate with 49%, compared to 20% for the Bloc Québécois and 18% for the Conservatives [7].
– **British Columbia**: A three-way tie between Liberals (33%), Conservatives (32%), and NDP (31%) [15].
Summary of Polling Data:
—
### **Key Campaign Issues**
1. **Affordability and U.S. Tariffs**:
– Trump’s threats of auto tariffs (effective April 2, 2025) and annexation rhetoric have eclipsed domestic issues like housing and inflation [9][12].
– **Liberals**: Carney’s $2B auto-sector fund and $5B infrastructure plan aim to offset U.S. trade disruptions [4][12].
– **Conservatives**: Poilievre has focused on tax cuts (e.g., reducing the lowest income bracket from 15% to 12.75%) and GST exemptions for housing under $1.3M [19], but faces criticism for not adequately addressing Trump’s tariffs [9].
2. **Leadership Perceptions**:
– Carney leads Poilievre by 11 points (44% to 33%) as the preferred PM, with stronger ratings on handling Trump and economic crises [15].
– Poilievre is perceived as having a “hidden agenda” and being “in over his head” by 18-point margins [15].
### **Internal Conservative Challenges**
– **Strategy Criticisms**: Senior strategists like Kory Teneycke argue the party is “missing the ballot question” on Trump’s tariffs, while internal polls show a 15-point deficit in Ontario [9][17].
– **Base Mobilization**: Despite trailing in polls, Poilievre draws larger crowds than Stephen Harper did during his successful campaigns, signaling strong grassroots support [9][17].
### **Seat Projections and Historical Context**
– The Liberals’ **44% national support** places them near majority territory, comparable to their 2015 majority win with 39.5% [5][17].
– In 2021, the Conservatives won 119 seats with 33.7% of the vote, but recent polling suggests seat losses in Ontario and Quebec could hinder their path to power [10][17].
—
### **Policy Contrast**
### **Outlook**
The Conservatives’ path to victory hinges on reclaiming suburban Ontario and Quebec ridings, where they currently trail. However, Carney’s pivot to centrism and Trump-driven nationalism has reshaped the campaign, eroding Poilievre’s earlier advantage on affordability [7][12]. With the election on April 28, volatility remains high, particularly as Trump’s actions dominate headlines.
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of Conservatives winning majority
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 28
(Carolyn’s note: Lack of a numerical probability for the base rate is a bug, not yet fixed, sorry.)
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is influenced by recent Ipsos polls showing Conservative support at 38%, down from earlier in the year. Historical data from the 2021 election shows similar polling numbers resulted in 119 seats. The focus on regional support in key areas like Ontario and Quebec where the Liberals lead is crucial.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information on internal polling, potential shifts in voter turnout, and the impact of last-minute campaign strategies would improve forecast accuracy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
A significant shift could occur if the Conservative Party manages to effectively counter the Liberals’ economic policies or if there are major missteps in the Liberal campaign. Trump’s trade policies could also unpredictably affect voter preferences.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Conservatives gain sufficient seats in Ontario Possible
– Conservatives address Trump’s trade issues effectively Unlikely
– Conservatives improve campaign strategy and public perception Possible
– Conservatives recapture support in Quebec Unlikely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.65, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.08, “more than 240”: 0.02] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.3, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 45%
* between 172 and 205: 35%
* between 206 and 240: 15%
* more than 240: 5%
The various summaries suggest that the Conservative Party is currently trailing in crucial regions such as Ontario and Quebec, impacting their ability to secure a majority under the first-past-the-post electoral system. Historical trends indicate that with similar polling numbers, the Conservatives only managed to win 119 seats, illustrating their challenge in translating popular support into electoral victories. Internal criticism and their handling of trade issues related to Trump pose additional hurdles. Meanwhile, Liberal leader Mark Carney’s popularity and the Liberal Party’s strong leads in Ontario and Quebec bolster their position. However, some argue there is potential for change due to factors such as possible polling inaccuracies, the Conservative Party’s grassroots mobilization, or shifts in campaign dynamics, which might tilt the political landscape before the election. Unforeseen events and strategic adjustments, particularly in economic messaging, could yet alter the current predictions significantly.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
