How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of May 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
Model value:
* Less than 100: 18%
* Between 100 and 250: 28%
* Between 250 and 500: 26%
* Between 500 and 1000: 17%
* Greater than 1000: 11%
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: ACLED Syria conflict deaths May 2025
Results from around the web:
Okay, let’s tackle this query step by step. The user is asking for current web results related to ACLED Syria conflict deaths in May 2025, including a summary, tables of relevant data, and a time series analysis. They also want the URLs of the sources used.
First, I need to check the provided search results to see which ones are relevant. The search results include sources from ACLED, Wikipedia, EFE, and SNHR. Let’s go through each one:
1. **Result [1]**: ACLED data from March 2025 mentions mass graves and unclear civilian casualties in the coastal region of Syria. However, the date is March, not May, so this might not be directly relevant but could provide context.
2. **Result [2]**: The ACLED homepage, which is just a general description of the organization. Not directly useful for specific May 2025 data.
3. **Result [3]**: Wikipedia page on Southern Syria clashes in April-May 2025. This seems very relevant as it includes specific numbers like 30 killed, 73 Druze fighters killed, and incidents on May 1st and 2nd. There’s mention of Israeli airstrikes and Turkish involvement. This source has detailed events in early May 2025.
4. **Result [4]**: EFE article from March 2025 reporting over 4,700 civilian deaths in the first 100 days after Assad’s ouster. This includes a breakdown of casualties but is from March, so again, context rather than May-specific data.
5. **Result [5]**: SNHR report from March 2025 documenting 803 extrajudicial killings, including women and children. Again, March data, not May.
Since the user is asking specifically for May 2025 data, the most relevant source is result [3] from Wikipedia, which details clashes in early May. The other sources are from March and provide background but not the requested time frame.
Now, constructing the summary: The key points are the clashes in early May, casualties (both civilian and combatant), involvement of Israeli and Turkish forces, and specific incidents like the explosion in Suwayda and airstrikes.
For the tables, since the data is limited to early May, I can create a table summarizing the incidents, dates, casualties, and responsible parties. However, the user also asked for a time series with statistical measures. Given the data is only for a few days in May, calculating mean, median, etc., might not be feasible unless we extrapolate, but that’s not accurate. The available data points are sparse, so maybe a table showing daily casualties from May 1-3, 2025, with change from previous day, but since there’s no prior data (April isn’t covered here), the ‘change’ might not be possible. This could be a limitation, but I should present what’s available.
URLs to include: The sources used are [1], [3], [4], [5] (even though [4] and [5] are from March, they provide context on the conflict’s severity). Result [2] is the ACLED homepage and doesn’t add specific data, so it might be excluded unless the user specifically wants it mentioned.
Potential issues: The user asked for “current web results” but the latest data provided is up to early May 2025. If the current date in the system prompt is May 8, 2025, then the Wikipedia article covers up to May 3, which is recent but not the entire month. The answer should note that data for the full month of May isn’t available yet.
Also, the user requested tables in tabbed or comma-separated format. Since the answer is in Markdown, using a Markdown table is appropriate. The time series might be challenging due to limited data points, but I can structure it with the available days.
In conclusion, the summary will focus on the early May clashes, the tables will present the incident details and statistical measures based on the available data, and the sources will be listed at the end.
The latest reports on conflict-related deaths in Syria during May 2025 highlight escalating violence in the southern and coastal regions, particularly involving Israeli airstrikes, Turkish air operations, and sectarian clashes. Below is a structured summary of key events and data from verified sources:
—
## **Key Incidents (1–3 May 2025)**
– **1 May**:
– Hussam Waruar (Sahnaya Municipality head) and his son killed in Suwayda[3].
– Explosion at a Suwayda farm linked to an unidentified drone (possibly Israeli) killed four individuals[3].
– **2–3 May**:
– Israeli airstrikes targeted Rif Dimashq, Hama, and Daraa Governorates, causing 1 civilian death and 4 injuries[3].
– Turkish fighter jets deployed electronic jamming measures over Idlib and Aleppo in response to Israeli air operations[3].
– Israeli helicopters evacuated injured Druze civilians to Ziv Hospital in Safed[3].
—
## **Conflict Fatality Data**
### Civilian and Combatant Deaths (Early May 2025)
### Sectarian Violence Context (March 2025)
– **4,700+ civilians killed** in the first 100 days post-Assad’s ouster (Dec 2024–Mar 2025), including 1,805 sectarian executions[4].
– **803 extrajudicial killings** documented between 6–10 March 2025, including 39 children and 49 women[5].
—
## **Statistical Overview (March–May 2025)**
*Note: Limited data for May 2025 restricts robust statistical analysis.*
—
## **Sources**
1. [ACLED Syria Conflict Update (March 2025)] (https://acleddata.com/2025/03/14/q-a-what-happened-in-the-coastal-region-of-syria-last-week/)
2. [Southern Syria Clashes – Wikipedia] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Syria_clashes_(April%E2%80%93May_2025))
3. [EFE: Syria’s Deadly Fallout] (https://efe.com/en/latest-news/2025-03-18/syrian-civilians-killed/)
4. [SNHR: Extrajudicial Killings Report] (https://snhr.org/blog/2025/03/11/803-individuals-extrajudicially-killed-between-march-6-10-2025/)
Data for late May 2025 remains unavailable as of 8 May 2025
.
OpenAI gives a base rate of Probability of death count category (Carolyn’s note: OpenAI failed to return a value.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.3-0.20.50.4
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Base rate adjusted by weighing military involvement high due to recent escalations plus historical factors leading to increased casualties such as prolonged conflicts and lack of ceasefire. This results in an adjusted probability of death counts being 250 or more.
Bayesian base rate: 0.45
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 23
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by assessing historical instances where intense conflict, coupled with international military interventions, led to high casualty numbers. Specific focus was on the current escalation in violence and historical precedent following Assad’s ouster.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional data from ACLED or similarly reputable conflict databases would enhance the precision of estimates. An update on current geopolitical dynamics, including ceasefire negotiations or new military strategies, would also be valuable.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Ceasefire agreements or successful peace negotiations occurring unexpectedly could drastically reduce the likelihood of higher death counts. Alternatively, an unforeseen geopolitical shift or new alliances could either escalate or de-escalate conflict.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Intense and prolonged conflict in specific regions of Syria at levels corresponding to higher death counts, e.g., 250 or more people killed (Moderate to High likelihood)
– Continuation of current involvement from Israeli and Turkish military forces in the region (High likelihood) – Lack of effective conflict resolution efforts or ceasefire agreements (Moderate likelihood)
– Significant, possibly unforeseen escalation in fighting or shifts in military strategies that increase casualty rates (Low to Moderate likelihood)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.15, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.35, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.25, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.15, “Greater than 1000”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.7, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.2, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.07, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.02, “Greater than 1000”: 0.01] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 100”: 0.1, “Between 100 and 250”: 0.25, “Between 250 and 500”: 0.3, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.25, “Greater than 1000”: 0.1] – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 5
MAPD: Avg: 0.17333333333333, Max: 0.4
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 100: 18%
* Between 100 and 250: 28%
* Between 250 and 500: 26%
* Between 500 and 1000: 17%
* Greater than 1000: 11%
The various AI analyses predict a continuation of the Syrian conflict involving multiple parties such as Israeli and Turkish forces, yet at a potentially moderating level compared to previous months. While May 2025 began with significant but restrained death tolls, the data suggests casualties may be fewer than earlier in the year, possibly ranging between 100-500. However, the prediction remains cautious due to potential interventions, such as escalated military actions by involved nations, unforeseen geopolitical shifts, or incomplete data that could either exacerbate or mitigate the current trends. Peace negotiations or changes in conflict dynamics could also affect the predicted outcomes significantly.
Runtime: 114 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Syria in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment with VIEWS.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
