Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, May 28, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025?

Today, May 28, Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 25%

Here’s how his Multi-AI Oracle bot calculated this:

Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire May 2025
News from various sources:

I can see this HTML markup contains search results for Israel-Hamas ceasefire news from May 2025, but I cannot actually visit URLs or browse the internet to read the full articles. I can only see the headlines, snippets, and metadata provided in the markup. Based on the snippets and headlines visible in the markup, here’s what I can summarize about the most recent developments:

**Current Ceasefire Negotiations Status (May 2025):**
The most recent content shows ongoing disputes between Israel and Hamas over ceasefire proposals. According to headlines from the past 24 hours, Hamas has reportedly agreed to a Gaza ceasefire proposal, but Israel has dismissed it as unacceptable. A Palestinian-American academic named Bishara Bahbah has emerged as a key backchannel between the Trump administration and Hamas in ceasefire negotiations. The proposed deal appears to involve around 60-70 days of ceasefire and the release of approximately 10 hostages.

**Humanitarian Crisis:**
Recent reports indicate a severe humanitarian situation in Gaza, with Israel having maintained a blockade for over 2.5 months. Israel recently launched a new food distribution system using “hubs” for weekly rations, but this was quickly overwhelmed by desperate Palestinians and had to be suspended. The situation has pushed Gaza to the brink of famine, with thousands of hungry people mobbing aid distribution areas.

**International Pressure:**
According to The Economist (16 hours ago), Israel is facing “triple trouble” as furious allies are distancing themselves. There are also reports of continued Israeli airstrikes killing dozens of Palestinians even as ceasefire talks continue, highlighting the ongoing violence despite diplomatic efforts.
To get complete summaries of these articles, you would need to visit the URLs directly, as I cannot access external websites.

Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The newsfeed presents ongoing and complex developments regarding ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas as of May 2025. Despite reports that Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire proposal involving a 60-70 day truce and the release of approximately 10 hostages, Israel has dismissed the proposal as unacceptable. A Palestinian-American academic named Bishara Bahbah is reportedly acting as a key backchannel between the Trump administration and Hamas. Meanwhile, a severe humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Gaza, exacerbated by a prolonged Israeli blockade and inadequate food distribution efforts. Internationally, Israel is experiencing increasing pressure as allies express frustration and reports of continued Israeli airstrikes raise concerns about ongoing violence. The situation remains highly volatile, with negotiations and humanitarian issues reflecting deep tensions in the region.”

Fact-checking news summary:
To evaluate the potential cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas, I’ll list the specific facts stated in the summary and analyze each one in terms of correctness, importance, and relevance to the outcome of a potential ceasefire:

1. **Fact**: Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire proposal involving a 60-70 day truce and the release of approximately 10 hostages.
– Correctness: To determine if it’s true or false, we would need to verify this information with current credible news sources. (Assumption: unable to verify without current data)
– Importance: Important (The agreement or disagreement on the terms of ceasefire directly impacts the likelihood of a ceasefire)
– Relevance to Outcome: True (Directly relevant as it relates to the ceasefire terms)
2. **Fact**: Israel has dismissed the ceasefire proposal as unacceptable.
– Correctness: Again, needs verification from up-to-date sources. (Assumption: unable to verify without current data)
– Importance: Important (Israel’s acceptance or rejection influences the likelihood of a ceasefire)
– Relevance to Outcome: True (Critical to whether a ceasefire is possible)
3. **Fact**: Bishara Bahbah is acting as a key backchannel between the Trump administration and Hamas.
– Correctness: Needs verification for current correctness. (Assumption: unable to verify without current data)
– Importance: Lesser (While potentially facilitating dialogue, backchannel negotiations are less impactful than official agreements on the likelihood of an immediate ceasefire)
– Relevance to Outcome: True (Relevant as it contributes to understanding negotiation dynamics)
4. **Fact**: There is a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza due to a prolonged Israeli blockade and inadequate food distribution efforts.
– Correctness: Generally acknowledged as true by multiple sources, historically consistent with reported conditions.
– Importance: Important (Humanitarian crises can exert international pressure, affecting ceasefire negotiations)
– Relevance to Outcome: True (Impacts international pressures and urgency for a ceasefire)
5. **Fact**: Israel is experiencing increasing international pressure due to allies’ frustrations and ongoing airstrikes.
– Correctness: Typically consistent with patterns seen in similar situations, verification required for current context.
– Importance: Important (International pressure can influence decisions regarding ceasefires)
– Relevance to Outcome: True (Relevant as international pressure may affect Israel’s decisions)
6. **Fact**: Negotiations and humanitarian issues reflect deep tensions in the region.
– Correctness: Consistently acknowledged as true in the context of Middle East conflicts.
– Importance: Lesser (General background context; has an indirect impact on ceasefire outcomes)
– Relevance to Outcome: False (The statement is contextually truthful but does not directly affect the immediate likelihood of a ceasefire)

The overall scenario represents a complex interplay of diplomatic negotiations and humanitarian concerns, with specific points needing real-time verification to accurately assess the likelihood of a ceasefire in May 2025.

Fact-checked summary:
The potential declaration of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in May 2025 hinges on several important and true factors. There is currently a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza due to a prolonged Israeli blockade and inadequate food distribution efforts, a situation acknowledged by multiple sources. This humanitarian crisis is important as it can exert international pressure on the involved parties, potentially affecting ceasefire negotiations. Moreover, Israel is experiencing increasing international pressure due to allies’ frustrations and ongoing airstrikes. This pressure is crucial as it may influence Israel’s decisions regarding the acceptance or rejection of a ceasefire. These elements are significant as they impact the international landscape and urgency for a resolution, making them relevant to the ceasefire’s possible realization.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 30%.
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Humanitarian Crises, 0.35
International Pressure, 0.3
Past Ceasefire Attempts, 0.25
Domestic Political Climate, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
The Bayesian probability is calculated by adjusting the base rate with historical factors and current conditions. Assuming the base rate is primarily influenced by humanitarian crises and international pressure, with updates from recent conditions suggest a moderately increased probability. P(Updated|Evidence) ≈ [P(Previous)] * [(0.35 * 0.8) + (0.3 * 0.7) + (0.25 * 0.5) + (0.1 * 0.6)] = 0.3 * (0.28 + 0.21 + 0.125 + 0.06) = 0.3 * 0.675 = 0.2025.
Bayesian base rate: 20.25%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: case_based_decision_theory
Expected time (days) until question close: 30 (Carolyn’s note: Error! Only three days including today. Consequently the forecast of 25% likelihood is far too high.)
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is determined by examining historical data of similar resolutions in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Previous ceasefire agreements were intermittently reached but difficult to maintain, influenced by international pressure and severe humanitarian issues, hence a base rate of 30%.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Ideal information would include internal discussions within Israel’s government and Hamas, as well as detailed data on international diplomatic engagements. Changes in military tactics or deployments could also signal shifts likely to influence the potential for a ceasefire.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Current high humanitarian pressure could accelerate or complicate negotiations, and geopolitical shifts with Israel’s allies may lead to different outcomes than past situations. Additionally, domestic political changes in Israel or Hamas could sway the likelihood in either direction.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Humanitarian crisis in Gaza motivates international actors to apply pressure for negotiations.
– Sufficient international pressure on Israel leads to consideration of ceasefire.
– Hamas agrees to conditions that Israel would accept for a ceasefire.
– Israel’s government, in light of domestic and international positioning, decides to pursue a ceasefire.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 8)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.16
MAPD: 0.26666666666667
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.59
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 25%

The likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared by the end of May 2025 appears low, primarily due to the tight time constraints with only a few days left in the month and the complexities of the negotiation process, which typically requires more time to align all necessary conditions. Historically, ceasefires occur roughly 30% of the time, often in response to significant international pressure, which is currently present due to a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Nonetheless, the challenges of reaching an agreement, influenced by domestic political factors, the volatile nature of the conflict, and the reliability of information, contribute to the skepticism about a ceasefire occurring imminently. Although unforeseen developments such as secret negotiations or emergency diplomatic interventions could hasten the process, these remain less likely scenarios under the current circumstances.

Runtime: 100 seconds.