How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in July 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
* Less than 500: 3%
* Between 500 and 1000: 10%
* Between 1000 and 1500: 20%
* Between 1500 and 2000: 30%
* Greater than 2000: 37%
12–14 minutes read time
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Ukraine conflict deaths July 2025.
News from various sources:
The extracted content from the web on the topic “ACLED Ukraine conflict deaths 2025” provides a detailed look into the current situation of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, with a focus on the year 2025. Here is a summary of the key points:
1. **Increased Hostilities and Death Toll**: The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reports a significant increase in Russian aerial assaults on Ukrainian cities, such as Kyiv and Kharkiv, including the use of drones and missiles. This escalation has resulted in monthly civilian deaths and casualties, reported to be hundreds each month. The Ukrainian Air Force claims an increase in Russian drone and missile attacks from 1,269 in December 2024 to 2,436 in May 2025. Civilians bear a high portion of these casualties amidst the ongoing conflict.
2. **Ukraine Conflict’s Impact on Death Rates**: As hostilities have ramped up, Ukraine has recorded a spike in civilian deaths by 59% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year. The humanitarian situation remains dire, with the UN reporting at least 13,279 civilian deaths and 32,449 injuries since February 2022.
3. **Western Reactions and Aid**: Despite continued international efforts to negotiate for peace, the conflict persists with opposing demands and complex geopolitics affecting potential resolutions. U.S. aid to Ukraine continues though with reported reductions in certain defense supplies due to decreased stockpiles. Meanwhile, the U.S. has faced criticism about its arms supply strategy after halting shipments of specific weapons.
4. **Bilateral Negotiations and Ceasefire Attempt**: There have been intermittent attempts at negotiations, with a particular focus on a brokered ceasefire. Nonetheless, these talks have so far been fruitless due to the lack of consensus and mutual demands between the conflicting parties.
5. **International Diplomacy**: Diplomatic meetings continue on global platforms such as the UN and NATO, with nations like Türkiye playing active roles in facilitating dialogue. Despite these efforts, progress remains impeded by ongoing strategic and territorial disputes.
6. **Civilian and Infrastructure Impact**: Alongside fatal attacks, significant infrastructure and economic damage have affected Ukraine. Increased drone production by Russia, notably through collaborations with countries like Iran, has intensified the war’s collateral damage on Ukrainian infrastructure and resources.
7. **Political Adjustments**: The war has driven major political adjustments within Ukraine, evidenced by governmental reshuffles and evolving defense strategies focusing on increased domestic production of military equipment.
Overall, the situation in Ukraine remains volatile with significant humanitarian impacts and complex geopolitical dynamics challenging efforts towards a peaceful resolution.
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts extracted from the summary, along with an analysis of their correctness, importance to the question, and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** ACLED reports a significant increase in Russian aerial assaults on Ukrainian cities in 2025, resulting in hundreds of monthly civilian deaths and casualties.
– **Correctness:** True (Internal consistency is assumed, but external consistency with ACLED data would require verification).
– **Importance:** Important (Provides context on the conflict’s intensity and its effects on death tolls).
– **Relevance:** True (Directly relates to conflict deaths).
2. **Fact:** Ukrainian Air Force reports an increase in Russian drone and missile attacks from 1,269 in December 2024 to 2,436 in May 2025.
– **Correctness:** True (Assumed within the scope of the summary; requires external verification).
– **Importance:** Important (Highlights the escalation over time, impacting death rates).
– **Relevance:** True (Relevant to understanding the changing nature of hostilities).
3. **Fact:** Ukraine recorded a 59% increase in civilian deaths in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year.
– **Correctness:** True (Internal consistency checked; external data needed for full verification).
– **Importance:** Critical (Directly informs on the trend of civilian deaths).
– **Relevance:** True (Directly relevant to estimating conflict deaths).
4. **Fact:** The UN reports at least 13,279 civilian deaths and 32,449 injuries since February 2022.
– **Correctness:** True (Internal data check; would require UN data for full verification).
– **Importance:** Important (Provides a cumulative figure against which monthly figures could be compared).
– **Relevance:** True (Provides baseline figures essential for understanding the scale of conflict).
5. **Fact:** U.S. aid to Ukraine continues, with reductions in certain defense supplies due to decreased stockpiles.
– **Correctness:** True (Consistent within the report; external verification needed).
– **Importance:** Lesser (Indicates external influences but not directly related to death counts).
– **Relevance:** False (Does not directly impact the outcome of estimated death tolls).
6. **Fact:** Attempts at a ceasefire have been fruitless due to lack of consensus and mutual demands.
– **Correctness:** True (Internally consistent; agreement requires external context).
– **Importance:** Important (Affects the potential for changes in conflict intensity).
– **Relevance:** True (Attempts at peace could influence future death tolls).
7. **Fact:** Increased drone production by Russia, partly due to collaborations with Iran, has intensified damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure.
– **Correctness:** True (Internal consistency presumed; requires external verification).
– **Importance:** Lesser (Important context but not directly related to reported deaths).
– **Relevance:** False (Infrastructure impact, though serious, is not directly counted in death tolls).
8. **Fact:** Ukraine experiences major political adjustments and defense strategy changes due to the war.
– **Correctness:** True (Consistent internally; corroborating external data needed).
– **Importance:** Lesser (Contextual, with indirect effects on military readiness and death impacts).
– **Relevance:** False (Political changes are indirectly connected to the question of death counts).
In summary, the most critical and relevant facts relate to reported increases in death rates, ACLED’s conflict reporting, and specific escalations in hostilities. These factors are essential to estimating the number of conflict deaths for July 2025 in Ukraine according to ACLED.
Fact-checked summary:
The most critical and relevant facts for estimating the number of state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine in July 2025, according to ACLED, highlight significant increases in conflict intensity and civilian casualties. ACLED reports a considerable increase in Russian aerial assaults on Ukrainian cities in 2025, resulting in hundreds of monthly civilian deaths, providing important context on the conflict’s intensity and its direct impact on death tolls. Ukraine recorded a 59% increase in civilian deaths in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year, which is crucial for understanding the trend in civilian casualties. Furthermore, comprehensive UN data cites at least 13,279 civilian deaths since February 2022, giving a baseline for assessing the scale of ongoing conflicts. Additionally, attempts at a ceasefire remain unsuccessful due to a lack of consensus, which affects the potential for changes in conflict intensity and subsequent death tolls. These facts are critical in projecting the reported conflict deaths for July 2025, providing a context for both historical and current escalation trends in the conflict.
OpenAI gives a base rate of greater than 2000 deaths
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Previous month conflict deaths, 0.4
Current trend in aerial assaults, 0.3
Seasonal conflict pattern, 0.3
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factor weightings, we estimate the probability based on increased conflict trends. Assume the suicide rate continues upward as seen in the current year. P(current | historical factors) = 0.9. Applying Bayesian probability formula: Posterior probability = [(Likelihood * Prior) / Evidence] = [(0.9 * 0.7) / 0.8] = 0.7875.
Bayesian base rate: 0.7875 (Carolyn‘s note: This means the likelihood of the base rate projecting ~2000 deaths for July is ~79% likely to be close to the actual death toll. That’s fuzzy math!)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 14
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was derived from analyzing the recent trend of a 59% increase in civilian casualties, historical data from past months, and failed diplomatic efforts, suggesting a continued upward trend in conflict deaths.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
It would be beneficial to have access to classified military assessments, real-time civilian and military casualty reports, and more detailed information on failed or ongoing peace negotiations to refine the forecast further.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential breakthroughs in peace talks or unforeseen diplomatic interventions could reverse the current trend, decreasing the July 2025 death toll significantly.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued high intensity of conflict through July 2025 (likely)
– Increased aerial assaults as seen in earlier 2025 months (likely)
– No successful ceasefire agreements (highly likely)
– Sustained or increased civilian casualties as in the first quarter of 2025 (likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.15, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.25, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.3, “Greater than 2000”: 0.25] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (Error: Mistral is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.01, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.15, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.3, “Greater than 2000”: 0.49] – confidence: 7)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6.5
MAPD: Avg: 0, Max: 0
# LLM responses: 2
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value:
* Less than 500: 3%
* Between 500 and 1000: 10%
* Between 1000 and 1500: 20%
* Between 1500 and 2000: 30%
* Greater than 2000: 37%
The various AIs predict an increase in civilian casualties in July 2025 based on several factors, including a 59% rise in fatalities during the first quarter of the year, persistent high-intensity conflict as shown by historical data, and an increase in Russian aerial assaults on Ukrainian cities. The lack of successful ceasefire negotiations and ongoing conflict escalation support this prediction. However, the AIs also highlight potential uncertainties that could affect their predictions, such as the possibility of sudden diplomatic breakthroughs, changes in reporting methodologies, underreporting, and seasonal or strategic shifts in conflict dynamics.
Runtime: 192 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Jeremy’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. The VIEWS Ukraine dashboard is pictured below. (Carolyn’s note: VIEWS is using ACLED data to score its competitors, given the tendency of nations to minimize their own fatalities and exaggerating those of their enemies.)
Source: Views machine forecasting competition https://data.viewsforecasting.org/
