Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman: US military strike against Venezuela? Forecast of Nov. 13, 2025

Will the US officially announce completion of any military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: 5%

10–13 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: US military strike Venezuela 2025

News from various sources:
The content describes escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela in 2025, driven by military activities and political confrontations. The U.S., under President Donald Trump, has deployed substantial military forces, including the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group, to the Caribbean, ostensibly to combat narcotics trafficking. However, Venezuela views these moves as a preparation for possible military intervention aimed at regime change, given Trump’s critical stance against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Key Developments:
1. **Military Movements**: The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the Caribbean. This includes stationing thousands of troops, deploying the largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, and numerous other naval and air assets purportedly for anti-narcotics operations.
2. **Venezuelan Response**: In reaction to the U.S. buildup, Venezuela has mobilized its military nationwide, involving both regular troops and civilian militia, as part of a defensive strategy termed “Independence Plan 200.” This is seen as an attempt to bolster national defense against perceived “imperialist threats.”
3. **Political Context**: Trump has expressed strong opposition to Maduro’s government, associating it with narcoterrorism and expressing a desire for regime change. Trump has conducted military strikes on alleged drug-smuggling operations associated with Venezuela, further heightening tensions.
4. **Risk of Conflict**: Experts warn that the situation could escalate into a conflict due to heightened military activities and political rhetoric. Ernesto Sagás, a Latin American politics expert, noted the U.S. may lean towards military intervention, although the aftermath of such actions poses significant risks and uncertainties.
5. **Strategic Challenges**: Both U.S. and Venezuelan experts recognize the challenges of a potential conflict. The U.S. might struggle with post-intervention consequences if a regime change is attempted without clear ground support. Venezuela’s defense strategy focuses on asymmetric and guerrilla tactics due to the conventional mismatch with U.S. forces.
6. **International Reactions**: Some international observers, including France, have expressed concern over U.S. military actions in the region, highlighting the risks of destabilization and violation of international law.

The situation remains volatile, with military maneuvers and diplomatic tensions signaling a potential for further conflict, although direct confrontation has yet to materialize.

Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the summary, let’s extract specific facts, verify their accuracy, assess their importance to the question about a U.S.-led military strike, and determine their relevance to the outcome.

1. **Fact**: The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the Caribbean, including deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group for anti-narcotics operations.
– **Correctness**: Assuming a futuristic setting (2025), this statement cannot be verified for correctness. However, the deployment of military forces for anti-narcotics operations has historical precedent.
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
2. **Fact**: Venezuela has mobilized its military nationwide as part of a defensive strategy known as “Independence Plan 200”.
– **Correctness**: Cannot be verified for 2025, but mobilizing troops as a defensive strategy aligns with traditional military responses.
– **Importance**: Lesser
– **Relevance**: True
3. **Fact**: Trump has expressed strong opposition to Maduro’s government, associating it with narcoterrorism.
– **Correctness**: While historically Trump has taken a critical stance on Venezuela, this cannot be verified for 2025.
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
4. **Fact**: Trump has conducted military strikes on drug-smuggling operations associated with Venezuela.
– **Correctness**: Cannot be verified for 2025, but the past administration considered similar actions.
– **Importance**: Critical
– **Relevance**: True
5. **Fact**: Experts warn the situation could escalate into conflict due to military activities and political rhetoric.
– **Correctness**: Hypothetical, but a reasonable analysis.
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
6. **Fact**: Ernesto Sagás noted the U.S. may lean toward military intervention.
– **Correctness**: Cannot verify opinion without sources, but consistent with speculative analysis in tense situations.
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
7. **Fact**: The U.S. might struggle with post-intervention consequences without clear ground support, and Venezuela focuses on guerrilla tactics.
– **Correctness**: Speculative but aligns with military strategy analyses.
– **Importance**: Lesser
– **Relevance**: True
8. **Fact**: International observers, including France, express concern over U.S. actions, citing destabilization and international law violations.
– **Correctness**: Cannot be verified without further details, but possible based on historical foreign policy reactions.
– **Importance**: Important
– **Relevance**: True
The most critical fact to determining if the U.S. will officially announce a military strike is the one stating Trump conducted military strikes on alleged drug-smuggling operations. However, the veracity of this fact is unverified at this time. Other facts outline the geopolitical landscape, which indirectly contributes to the likelihood of such an announcement.

Fact-checked summary:
Unfortunately, there are no facts in the list that are both definitely true and directly address whether the U.S. will officially announce a military strike against Venezuela between November 6, 2025, and the end of 2025. The key fact about military strikes on drug-smuggling operations is unverified for 2025, and the other items are either speculative or relate to broader geopolitical circumstances, rather than confirming specific future military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela. Therefore, there is no definitive, relevant, and verified information available to directly answer the original question.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.02 (2%)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Past U.S. intervention in Latin America, 0.4
Current U.S.-Venezuela relations and tensions, 0.3
Political climate within the U.S., 0.2
International reaction and support, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors, assign probabilities based on each factor: 0.01 for past interventions, 0.02 for current tensions, 0.005 for U.S. political climate, and 0.003 for international support. Calculating the weighted sum: (0.4 * 0.01) + (0.3 * 0.02) + (0.2 * 0.005) + (0.1 * 0.003) = 0.0139. (Carolyn‘s note: My spreadsheet insists that the answer is 0.0113. I’ll believe that superintelligence is almost here when Generative AIs like the ones working together here can do not only arithmetic, but also all higher math reliably.)
Bayesian base rate: 0.0139 (~1%)

Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 48

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived from the rarity of U.S. military actions specifically against countries in Latin America, without significant provocation or geopolitical consequences. The calculation considers historical instances and current geopolitical tensions, which are relatively low between the U.S. and Venezuela.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Ideally, detailed reports on U.S. defense strategies, intelligence insights into Venezuelan actions, and statements from key political figures in the U.S. would provide a clearer picture.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
An unexpected event, such as a direct threat to U.S. interests or a sudden escalation in Venezuelan actions, could increase the likelihood. Furthermore, a shift in U.S. political climate or international alliances could alter the scenario.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The U.S. government decides a military strike against Venezuela is necessary due to threats or geopolitical interests. [Improbable] – A significant and credible threat or event occurs that warrants a military response from the U.S. [Unlikely] – There is sufficient domestic and international political support for a U.S. military action. [Doubtful] – Logistical and strategic preparations are made discreetly to allow for such an operation. [Uncertain]

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.03 – confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 3)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.05
Base rate: 0.02 (2% from OpenAI)
SD: 0.01
MAPD: 0.013333333333333
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.01
Reverse Mellers: 0.13
Theory of Mind: 0.1 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.01
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 5%

The consensus among the AI analyses is that the likelihood of the U.S. announcing a military strike against Venezuela before the end of 2025 is quite low. This conclusion is based on historical data showing that U.S. military operations in Latin America are rare without significant provocation. Currently, there are no strong geopolitical tensions or credible threats from Venezuela that would necessitate military action. Factors such as the lack of political and logistical support, the absence of immediate threats to U.S. interests, and the Biden administration’s preference for diplomacy contribute to this low probability. However, potential uncertainties include the possibility of undisclosed intelligence threats, sudden escalations, or changes in political dynamics that could increase the likelihood of a strike.

Runtime: 167 seconds.