Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast of Nov. 17, 2025

Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza still be in effect on 31st December, 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today: 25%

11–13 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire Gaza
News from various sources:

The situation between Israel and Hamas remains tense despite a recent ceasefire agreement intended to end the ongoing conflict that has affected the Gaza Strip and the broader Middle East. Several key actions and developments have occurred:

1. **Ceasefire and Exchange**: Following years of hostilities, a ceasefire was brokered, during which Israel and Hamas have exchanged hostages and detainees. Israel released around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for living hostages previously held by Hamas. However, both sides accuse each other of ceasefire violations.
2. **Fragile Peace**: Tensions remain high, as both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of breaching the ceasefire. Israel has conducted military operations in response to alleged Hamas attacks, while Hamas denies involvement and criticizes Israel for violating the agreement.
3. **International Involvement**: A peace summit co-hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump and Egypt in Sharm el-Sheikh indicated that further diplomatic efforts are needed to secure a lasting peace. Although some hope for normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states, public outrage over the conflict, especially in Arab countries, has complicated these efforts.
4. **Humanitarian Concerns**: The United Nations and other organizations are concerned about the humanitarian situation in Gaza. The ceasefire agreement mandates increased aid into Gaza, but Israel has restricted it, citing security concerns over hostages still believed to be in Gaza. The health and infrastructure crises are severe, with widespread destruction, medical evacuations, and food shortages reported.
5. **Prisoners and Hostages**: In the exchange, Hamas claims that Israel has concealed the full details of Palestinian detainees, while Israel claims some bodies of their hostages remain unrecovered. This issue adds complexity to the continuing negotiations and humanitarian efforts.
These developments underscore the fragility of the ceasefire and the deep-rooted challenges in achieving sustainable peace and addressing human rights concerns in the region.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with evaluations of their accuracy, importance, and relevance to the question of whether the ceasefire in Gaza will still be in effect by the end of 2025:
1. **Fact:** A ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Hamas, involving an exchange of hostages and detainees.
– **Correctness:** True, generally. Ceasefires and exchanges have occurred historically between Israel and Hamas.
– **Importance:** Important to critical, as the ceasefire is central to the question.
– **Relevance:** True, very relevant to the outcome.
2. **Fact:** Israel released around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for living hostages held by Hamas.
– **Correctness:** Potentially true, needs specific historical verification. The number could vary according to the specific event.
– **Importance:** Important, as it illustrates commitment levels and potential dissatisfaction.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant in assessing the situation’s dynamics.
3. **Fact:** Both Israel and Hamas accuse each other of ceasefire violations.
– **Correctness:** True, historically they have accused each other after ceasefires.
– **Importance:** Important, as violations can lead to ceasefire breakdown.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant to the potential breakdown or continuation.
4. **Fact:** Israel has conducted military operations in response to alleged Hamas attacks.
– **Correctness:** True, this is a common response in the region.
– **Importance:** Important, as it contributes to assessing ceasefire stability.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant to ongoing conflict dynamics.
5. **Fact:** A peace summit co-hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump and Egypt was held.
– **Correctness:** False, there is no record of such a peace summit involving Trump and Egypt specifically about this recent context.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance, as peace summits are periodic but can indirectly influence outcomes.
– **Relevance:** False, if inaccurate, makes it irrelevant.
6. **Fact:** There is hope for normalization between Israel and Arab states, but public outrage over the conflict complicates these efforts.
– **Correctness:** True, historical peace agreements (like the Abraham Accords) had similar hopes and reactions.
– **Importance:** Lesser, as it is more about broader regional dynamics than the specific ceasefire.
– **Relevance:** True, indirectly relevant through regional stability influences.
7. **Fact:** Humanitarian concerns in Gaza are severe, with the UN and others worried.
– **Correctness:** True, ongoing humanitarian issues in Gaza are well-documented.
– **Importance:** Important, as humanitarian crises can influence ceasefire viability.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant since it affects ongoing peace and aid decisions.
8. **Fact:** Israel has restricted aid into Gaza citing security concerns over hostages.
– **Correctness:** True, as restrictions often occur for security reasons.
– **Importance:** Important, as it affects humanitarian conditions and political tension.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant because it affects ceasefire dynamics and public opinion.
9. **Fact:** Hamas claims Israel concealed details of detainees, while Israel claims some bodies of hostages remain.
– **Correctness:** True, similar claims have been part of the ongoing dialogue.
– **Importance:** Important, as unresolved prisoner and body issues hinder long-term peace.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant to understanding ongoing negotiation difficulties.
Overall, these facts are important to consider when evaluating the potential continuation of the ceasefire in Gaza by the end of 2025. Their relevance and truthfulness are crucial in analyzing the context and determining potential outcomes.

Fact-checked summary:
A ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Hamas involving an exchange of hostages and detainees, an important and central event to the question of whether this ceasefire will be effective by the end of 2025. Historically, after ceasefires, both parties have accused each other of violations, which is highly relevant, as such violations can precipitate a breakdown of the ceasefire. Additionally, Israel has conducted military operations in response to alleged Hamas attacks, which is a common occurrence and relevant to assessing the stability of the ceasefire. Humanitarian concerns in Gaza are severe and well-documented, influencing ceasefire viability as these conditions can affect ongoing peace and aid decisions. Israel has restricted aid into Gaza due to security concerns over hostages, an important factor that affects humanitarian conditions and political tension. Lastly, unresolved issues regarding detainees and hostages between Hamas and Israel further complicate long-term peace efforts. These factors collectively provide essential context when evaluating the likelihood of the ceasefire’s continuation by the end of 2025.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.35 (35%)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.30.20.250.25
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors and recent data on ceasefires, we estimate each factor’s impact. Prior probability P(Ceasefire effective) is 0.4, considering history of failures. Likelihood of adherence given current events and factors: 0.5. Updating via Bayes: P(Ceasefire effective | Current events) = (0.4 * 0.5) / (0.4 * 0.5 + 0.6 * 0.5) = 0.35 (Carolyn’s note: My spreadsheet gets 0.4, or 40%.)
Bayesian base rate: 0.35 (or 35%)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 44
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is determined by the historical tendency for ceasefires to break down due to violations, combined with the impact of humanitarian issues and security concerns. Diplomatic efforts are relatively consistent but have varying success rates.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Further detailed reports on internal political dynamics within Hamas and Israel, and more comprehensive data on humanitarian and economic conditions in Gaza would improve the forecast.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential for unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in leadership could drastically change likelihoods. Conversely, any major act of provocation or failure in humanitarian support could lead to immediate breakdown.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued adherence to the terms of the ceasefire by both Israel and Hamas, with a likelihood of moderate.
– Resolution of detainee and hostage issues between Israel and Hamas, with a likelihood of low.
– Continued international diplomatic pressure and involvement to ensure implementation, with a likelihood of high.
– Improvement in humanitarian conditions in Gaza, with a likelihood of low.
– Prevention of major escalations due to military operations or provocations, with a likelihood of low.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
MAPD: 0.1
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.4 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.93
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 25%

The reasoning presented by the AIs emphasizes the fragility of ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, noting that historically these have been short-lived due to mutual violations and provocations. Key factors jeopardizing the current ceasefire include unresolved hostage and detainee exchanges, severe humanitarian conditions in Gaza, and Israel’s security-driven aid restrictions. Despite international diplomatic pressure, there are significant challenges in achieving long-term stability. Some AIs suggest that the ceasefire’s survival may be encouraged by political and international incentives, especially given the short timeframe remaining until the end of 2025. However, while there is potential for unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in leadership that could enhance the ceasefire’s chances, the overall prediction remains pessimistic due to the inherent instability and complex issues involved.

Runtime: 175 seconds.