How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
Less than 1,000: 5%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 12%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 18%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 26%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 21%
More than 12,000: 18%
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: state-based conflict deaths Sudan 2026
News from various sources:
It seems the content you’ve provided primarily consists of prompts such as “Continue reading” and “More for You,” which are typical placeholders on web pages that encourage further exploration of the site. Unfortunately, there is no substantial information provided within your message to extract or summarize.
If you are looking for information regarding “state-based conflict deaths in Sudan for the year 2026,” please ensure that the content includes specific data or articles related to that topic. This could include reports or statistics on conflict-related casualties, analyses by organizations monitoring such events, or news articles covering the situation. If you have access to such information, feel free to share it, and I’ll be happy to help summarize or analyze it.
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability (Open AI failed to return a value)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.50.30.2
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Utilizing historical data from previous years, if total deaths were estimated to have been reported as 7,000 in the last year (2025), and assuming an increase in the conflict, the probability is incrementally raised by the percentage of increase seen historically in similar situations.c
Bayesian base rate: 0.3
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: reference_class
Expected time (days) until question close: 365
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was established by examining historical data from ACLED and similar conflict reporting agencies, considering the frequency and intensity of conflicts reported in Sudan over the past few years, and the accuracy of the data provided.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Detailed, current statistical data on conflict-related deaths in Sudan would be ideal, as well as any recent changes in political climates that could impact conflict resolution.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Sudan may see a sudden decrease in conflict due to unexpected peace negotiations or increased international intervention, leading to fewer deaths than anticipated.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued state-based conflict in Sudan throughout 2026 – likely.
– Accurate data collection and reporting by ACLED – highly likely.
– Non-intervention or lack of diplomatic resolution to conflicts – somewhat likely.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.12, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.18, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.23, “More than 12000”: 0.17] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.15, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.25, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.15, “More than 12000”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.1, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.2, “More than 12000”: 0.3] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.058888888888889, Max: 0.13333333333333
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value:
Less than 1,000: 5%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 12%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 18%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 26%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 21%
More than 12,000: 18%
The reasoning behind the predictions regarding conflict deaths in Sudan is largely grounded in historical data and recent trends of instability and civil unrest. Multiple AI analyses emphasize the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces, noting consistent high levels of casualties, systemic civilian targeting, and a lack of a clear resolution. They highlight an entrenched conflict with persistent military capabilities on both sides, suggesting that without significant changes—such as decisive military victory, comprehensive peace agreements, or major international interventions—the trend of high annual death tolls is likely to continue. The predictions note the possibility of unforeseen developments, such as effective diplomatic resolutions, international interventions, or shifts in conflict dynamics that could alter expected outcomes. However, current patterns suggest a high probability of casualties remaining within the 5,000-10,000 range annually, with potential for higher numbers if escalation occurs.
Runtime: 66 seconds.
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Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.
Source: VIEWS machine forecasting competition
Control of territory, Sept. 2025. Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/9/30/war-in-sudan-humanitarian-fighting-control-developments-september-2025