Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 20%
This question is a side competition with the RAND Forecasting Initiative’s forecasting of this question. Their consensus forecast today—>
9–12 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Pakistan India hostilities 2025
News from various sources:
The provided web content concerning ‘Pakistan-India hostilities 2025’ includes several important points amidst a vast array of irrelevant links and unrelated news headlines:
1. **Nobel Peace Prize Nomination**:
– Pakistan has nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, crediting his “decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership” during the India-Pakistan conflict. Trump claimed to have played a significant role in easing tensions, although Indian authorities have disputed this.
2. **Nuclear Tensions**:
– Articles discuss the nuclear dimension of India-Pakistan relations, highlighting concerns of escalation into nuclear conflict due to both countries’ proximity and nuclear capabilities. Conventional wars between the two could potentially lead to nuclear exchanges.
3. **Operation Sindoor and Military Responses**:
– Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized that India’s response to the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, 2025, and the subsequent de-escalation with Pakistan were independent actions, not influenced by U.S. mediation. Modi detailed Operation Sindoor, highlighting precise and non-escalatory strikes on terrorist targets within Pakistan.
– Modi communicated to U.S. President Trump that hostilities ceased due to direct military communication between India and Pakistan, refuting any third-party mediation or related U.S.-India trade deals during the conflict.
4. **Further Discussions**:
– The conversation between Modi and Trump also covered other geopolitical issues, including the Israel-Iran conflict and the Indo-Pacific region. Modi and Trump discussed the strategic role of the QUAD and planned future meetings, with Trump accepting an invitation to India.
The rest of the content largely consists of miscellaneous news headlines and unrelated topics.
Fact-checking news summary:
Below is a list of specific facts stated in the summary, along with an analysis of their correctness, importance, and relevance to the question:
1. **Fact**: Pakistan nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 for his role in the India-Pakistan conflict.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent but cannot be externally verified (False due to unverifiable nature).
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. This does not directly impact the military casualties count.
– **Relevance**: False. This fact is not relevant to determining military casualties.
2. **Fact**: Tensions between India and Pakistan include nuclear concerns, with the possibility of conventional wars escalating into nuclear exchanges.
– **Correctness**: True based on historical context and consistent reporting on India-Pakistan relations.
– **Importance**: Important. The nuclear dimension underscores the seriousness of potential hostilities but does not directly mention casualties.
– **Relevance**: False. While this sets context for hostilities, it does not address casualty figures.
3. **Fact**: Operation Sindoor involved precise and non-escalatory strikes by India on terrorist targets in Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack in April 2025.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent but no external confirmation provided (False due to lack of external validation).
– **Importance**: Important. Military operations could lead to casualties and are thus important to consider.
– **Relevance**: True. Relevant as it relates directly to military actions that could cause casualties.
4. **Fact**: Hostilities ceased due to direct military communication between India and Pakistan, not due to U.S. mediation or trade deals.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, but no external source cited (False due to lack of verification).
– **Importance**: Important. The cessation of hostilities impacts the likelihood of further casualties.
– **Relevance**: True. Relevant as it impacts potential for casualties if hostilities resume.
5. **Fact**: Discussions between Modi and Trump included the Israel-Iran conflict, the Indo-Pacific region, QUAD, and Trump’s planned visit to India.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent but lacks external validation (False due to verification limitations).
– **Importance**: Unimportant. Does not impact India-Pakistan casualties.
– **Relevance**: False. Not relevant to the casualty count between India and Pakistan.
The main facts relevant to the question of casualties (facts 3 and 4) lack external verification, undermining their reliability, though they are important in context. The verification of possible operations and communications is crucial in assessing the risk of casualties, but this summary does not provide sufficient details to make a definitive causal connection to the casualty threshold specified in the original question.
Fact-checked summary:
The original question concerns the possibility of at least 100 uniformed casualties (with at least one death) resulting from hostilities between Pakistan and India between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025. Two facts are relevant but lack external verification: one pertains to Operation Sindoor, which involved precise and non-escalatory strikes by India on terrorist targets in Pakistan following an attack in April 2025, and the other concerns hostilities ceasing due to direct military communication between India and Pakistan. These facts are important as they relate to military actions and the cessation of hostilities, both of which can directly affect the casualty count. However, without external validation, their reliability is uncertain, making it difficult to conclusively predict whether the casualty threshold will be reached within the specified timeframe.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 15% likelihood
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.20.250.30.25
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
P(Event|Historical Factors) = (P(Historical Factors|Event) * P(Event)) / P(Historical Factors). Given the historical engagements and the current diplomatic efforts, assuming uniform priors and average historical impacts, P(Event|Historical Factors) = (0.3 * 0.15) / 0.5 = 0.09.
Bayesian base rate: 0.09
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 0 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 91
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived by examining past conflicts between India and Pakistan over the last decade, particularly post-2019 events including military engagements and attempts at peace. Diplomatic interventions have often reduced the severity of hostilities, implying a lower probability of high casualties.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional high-quality intelligence on the verification of Operation Sindoor and the outcomes of direct military communication would improve accuracy. Monitoring changes in regional alliances or shifts in military deployment could also affect predictions.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Any unforeseen incident such as a major cross-border terrorist attack or internal political pressure within either country could escalate hostilities beyond what historical patterns suggest. Conversely, a breakthrough diplomatic agreement may further reduce the likelihood.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Renewed military hostilities between Pakistan and India resulting in significant engagement (Likelihood: Moderate)
– Escalation of conflicts leading to substantial uniformed casualties (Likelihood: Low)
– Failure of diplomatic or military communication to maintain peace (Likelihood: Moderate)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.08 – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
MAPD: 0.11333333333333
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.22
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value: 20%
The prediction of significant India-Pakistan hostilities with over 100 uniformed casualties during June to September 2025 is considered moderate due to several factors. Historically, such high-casualty conflicts have been rare, with a base rate of 0.15, especially post-2019 when diplomatic interventions and active military communication have tempered the severity of confrontations. Recent events like Operation Sindoor indicate non-escalatory military actions, suggesting cautious engagement. However, there is an undercurrent of unpredictability due to potential major terrorist incidents, political pressures, or misinformation about diplomatic activities such as Operation Sindoor. These factors could swiftly escalate tensions despite the current frameworks that typically constrain them. The short timeframe adds another layer of uncertainty, as any significant incident could rapidly alter the probabilities outlined by historical patterns.
Runtime: 196 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy’s bots —>
Source: https://kashmir.liveuamap.com/
