Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, July 16, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?

8-10 minutes read time

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 25%. Here’s how it reached this answer:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire July 2025
News from various sources:

The web content contains information about the ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas as of July 2025. Key points include:
1. **Ceasefire Talks**: US President Donald Trump indicated that ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are progressing. However, efforts to establish a 60-day ceasefire have faced obstacles, with Israel and Hamas blaming each other for hindrances in negotiations. The talks are taking place indirectly in Qatar.
2. **Sticking Points**: One of the main issues is Israel’s insistence on maintaining military presence in certain areas of Gaza, which Hamas opposes. Israel proposes to maintain control over approximately 40% of the territory, which Hamas rejects as it could limit movement and freedom within Gaza.
3. **Proposed Agreement**: The proposed agreement, mediated with the help of Qatar and Egypt, includes a temporary ceasefire and potentially a prisoner exchange. Israel demands the disarmament of Hamas and a permanent truce but is struggling with demands for a complete military withdrawal from Gaza.
4. **Casualties and Ongoing Conflict**: The situation remains volatile, with continued military actions resulting in casualties. Accusations are exchanged over the intransigence and intentions of both parties regarding the ceasefire and peace deal.
5. **Political Implications**: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces domestic and international pressure regarding the negotiations. His stance is seen partly as a strategy to retain political power amid criticisms and opposition.
6. **Human Impact**: The humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, with significant casualties reported and critical shortages of necessities like fuel.

The situation remains complex with high stakes for both sides, as international mediators seek a resolution to over 21 months of conflict.

Fact-checking news summary:
Let’s analyze the facts presented in the summary:
1. **Ceasefire Talks**:
– **Fact**: US President Donald Trump indicated that ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are progressing.
– **Correctness**: False. As of my knowledge cutoff in October 2021, Donald Trump is not the US President in July 2025. The talks could not be progressing under his announcement.
– **Importance**: Important for understanding who is influencing the negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True, as it relates to the progress of the ceasefire talks.
2. **Negotiation Efforts**:
– **Fact**: Efforts to establish a 60-day ceasefire have faced obstacles, with Israel and Hamas blaming each other.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent within the document, but specific external verification needed for the exact nature of the 60-day proposal.
– **Importance**: Important for understanding the state of negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True, as it affects the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement.
3. **Negotiation Location**:
– **Fact**: The talks are taking place indirectly in Qatar.
– **Correctness**: Unverifiable with the information provided, but plausible as Qatar often acts as a mediator.
– **Importance**: Lesser, as the specific location doesn’t significantly impact the negotiations’ outcome.
– **Relevance**: True, but peripheral to the ceasefire result.
4. **Sticking Points**:
– **Fact**: Israel’s insistence on maintaining a military presence in Gaza and controlling approximately 40% of the territory.
– **Correctness**: Verification required, but generally consistent as such issues are typical negotiation points.
– **Importance**: Critical, as this directly affects the feasibility of a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, as it influences negotiation success.
5. **Proposed Agreement**:
– **Fact**: The proposed agreement includes a temporary ceasefire and potentially a prisoner exchange, with demands for Hamas’s disarmament and a permanent truce.
– **Correctness**: Such proposals are typical, but specific external verification required.
– **Importance**: Important, as these terms are part of negotiation goals.
– **Relevance**: True, directly related to the potential ceasefire.
6. **Casualties and Ongoing Conflict**:
– **Fact**: Continued military actions and casualties.
– **Correctness**: Likely true as ongoing conflicts typically cause casualties.
– **Importance**: Important for understanding the urgency and context of negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True, as ongoing conflict pressures parties towards a ceasefire.
7. **Political Implications**:
– **Fact**: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure regarding negotiations.
– **Correctness**: False, he was not Prime Minister as of October 2021. Verification needed for July 2025 leadership.
– **Importance**: Important, as it reflects political dynamics influencing decisions.
– **Relevance**: True if accurate, since political pressure affects negotiation strategies.
8. **Human Impact**:
– **Fact**: Humanitarian situation in Gaza deteriorates with shortages and casualties.
– **Correctness**: Likely true, as conflicts typically exacerbate humanitarian crises.
– **Importance**: Important to consider humanitarian pressures in negotiation.
– **Relevance**: True, as resolving these issues may motivate a ceasefire.

Overall, while some details require verification given the futuristic context, the facts mostly reflect typical patterns in negotiations, emphasizing military presence, humanitarian issues, and political dynamics.

Fact-checked summary:
Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas are reportedly experiencing obstacles, with both sides blaming each other for the difficulties in reaching an agreement. The talks are taking place indirectly in Qatar, a typical mediator in such conflicts. A significant sticking point is Israel’s demand to maintain a military presence and control 40% of Gaza, a critical issue that impacts the feasibility of a ceasefire. The proposed agreement includes a temporary ceasefire, a potential prisoner exchange, and demands for Hamas’s disarmament and a permanent truce. The urgency is underscored by ongoing military actions resulting in casualties and the worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza, which is characterized by shortages and escalating casualties, stressing the need for urgent resolution. These factors collectively highlight the challenges and motivations driving the negotiations.

Base rate: 20% (from OpenAI)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 25% – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 30% – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 20% – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 25%

SD: 0.04
MAPD: 0.066666666666667
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.4 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.11
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 25%

The AIs generally agree that the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared by the end of July 2025 is low due to several significant challenges. These include the limited timeframe remaining in the month, Israel’s demands regarding territorial control in Gaza, and the inherent complexities typical of such negotiations. Historical trends indicate that ceasefire agreements in similar conflicts usually require extended periods for resolution. Nevertheless, factors such as the ongoing humanitarian crisis and potential international pressure could create urgency that might shift the dynamics unexpectedly. However, unless there are sudden breakthroughs or key concessions, the complexities and entrenched positions on both sides suggest a ceasefire is unlikely within the remaining days of July.

Runtime: 255 seconds.