Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?
Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Considering all factors, I estimate:
Probability: 3%
38–49 minutes read Condensed version here —> 11–14 minutes read
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s start by breaking down the query. The user wants to know if there will be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025. The search results provided are from July 2025, so they’re recent and relevant.
First, I need to go through each search result to extract the most pertinent information. The user mentioned the Answer should start with a list of 10 citations, but since there are only 4 search results, I’ll proceed with those.
Looking at [1], it’s from ABC News on July 29th. Netanyahu is considering annexing territories in Gaza if Hamas doesn’t agree to a ceasefire. The article mentions stalled talks and accusations from Hamas about negotiating in bad faith. This indicates that ceasefire negotiations are struggling, with both sides blaming each other.
Result [2] is from Politico, also July 29th. It discusses a plan involving the UK’s potential recognition of Palestine, contingent on a ceasefire and release of hostages. This suggests that some external pressure or initiatives might be attempting to influence a ceasefire, but it’s still in the planning stages and hasn’t been confirmed.
Result [3] is a YouTube video transcript from July 28th. It talks about Israel facing tough choices, with talks stalled. The video mentions Israel continuing military pressure and humanitarian aid, but Netanyahu states the war isn’t over. This implies that Israel is prepared to continue military actions rather than rush into a ceasefire.
[4] from the London Review of Books is dated July 24th. It provides more of a retrospective analysis, discussing the failure of past peace processes and the current war as a continuation of historical conflicts. It doesn’t directly address current ceasefire talks but gives context that a resolution might be difficult.
Now, evaluating the likelihood of a ceasefire in July 2025. The most recent articles (29th and 28th) indicate stalemate. Result [1] and [2] mention ongoing negotiations with challenges, while [3] shows Israel’s stance of considering other options if talks don’t proceed. The UK’s plan in [2] has conditions that might not be met soon, like Hamas releasing all hostages.
Authoritative sources like the UK government indicate that achieving a ceasefire before September (for the UN General Assembly) is uncertain, depending on Hamas’s actions. However, the latest updates from July 29th show no resolution, with Netanyahu looking at alternative options and Hamas accusing bad faith negotiations.
No resolution criteria are provided, but based on the sources, achieving a ceasefire in July 2025 seems unlikely. The sources highlight ongoing hostilities, failed negotiations, and contingency planning rather than concrete agreements.
Therefore, the answer should summarize the current impasse, cite the sources with dates, and conclude that a ceasefire by July 2025 is improbable based on recent developments.
Here’s a detailed analysis of current developments regarding Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations, synthesized from recent sources up to July 29, 2025:
—
### **Key Developments & Sources**
1. **Netanyahu Considers Annexation of Gaza Territories**
*Source:* ABC News (July 29, 2025)
Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is weighing annexation of Gaza territories as a response to stalled ceasefire talks, with “alternative options” under consideration to retrieve hostages and end Hamas’s rule. Hamas accused Israel and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff of negotiating in bad faith, claiming progress in prior rounds before talks collapsed[1].
2. **UK Plan Ties Palestinian Recognition to Ceasefire & Hostage Releases**
*Source:* Politico Europe (July 29, 2025)
The UK is exploring a path to recognize Palestinian statehood at the September UN General Assembly, contingent on a ceasefire and full hostage release. A proposed plan includes post-conflict governance arrangements (excluding Hamas) and humanitarian aid phases, signaling potential international pressure to revive talks[2].
3. **Israel Expands Military Pressure Amid Stalled Diplomacy**
*Source:* YouTube (July 28, 2025 transcript)
With talks stalled, Israel is intensifying military operations (e.g., demolishing Hamas tunnels) while maintaining minimal humanitarian aid. Netanyahu affirmed the war’s continuation, stating Israel is “winning” but not ready to end hostilities[3].
4. **Structural Barriers to Peace Identified**
*Source:* London Review of Books (July 24, 2025)
Long-term analysis highlights systemic failures in past peace processes, particularly neglect of historical grievances (e.g., 1948 displacement) and reliance on symbolic diplomatic formulas. Recent escalations are framed as a “revenge of the past” against unsustainable occupation policies[4].
—
### **Resolution Outlook**
No concrete ceasefire deal has materialized as of July 29. Key obstacles include:
– **Hamas-Rejectionist Stance**: Accusations of Israeli-U.S. bad faith and demands for immediate withdrawal and aid[1].
– **Israeli Hardline Options**: Netanyahu’s annexation threats signal diminished appetite for diplomatic concessions[1][3].
– **UK Preconditions**: Recognition hinges on Hamas’s full compliance, which remains uncertain[2].
Expert assessments (e.g., Politico, London Review of Books) suggest protracted conflict, with September’s UN session emerging as a potential inflection point for international intervention[2][4].
**Verdict**: A July 2025 ceasefire appears improbable given current hostilities, position rigidity, and unresolved hostage/free withdrawal disputes.
—
**Citations**: [1][2][3][4]
Grok response:
Below is a detailed rundown of the most relevant news and information on the question of whether there will be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in July 2025. As a research assistant, my role is to provide context based on available sources, prioritizing the most recent ones up to the current date (July 30, 2025). This includes updates on negotiations, proposals, and statements from key parties, drawing from a variety of news outlets, official reports, and social media sentiment for broader context. I will not produce any forecasts; instead, I’ll emphasize recent developments, expert opinions, and any indications of progress or stalemate.
First, as planned, here’s a list of 10 citations based on the most relevant and recent sources. These include articles, reports, and posts that directly address ceasefire negotiations, proposals, and related diplomatic efforts. Each entry includes the title, a brief description, the date of publication, and a three-sentence summary of the relevant content.
### List of 10 Citations:
1. **Title:** 2025 Gaza war ceasefire – Wikipedia
**Description:** An overview of ceasefire efforts in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, including UN resolutions and negotiation updates.
**Date of Publication:** July 25, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This page details the UN Security Council’s adoption of Resolution 2735 in June, which backed a ceasefire proposal and called on Hamas to accept it, but notes Israel’s insistence on not ending the war prematurely. It highlights Hamas’s amendments to the proposal, including demands for a permanent ceasefire and troop withdrawals, which the U.S. deemed unworkable. Recent updates emphasize ongoing disagreements, with Netanyahu stating in July that only a partial ceasefire would be acceptable, contributing to stalled talks.
2. **Title:** Hamas says Israel rejected ceasefire deal releasing all captives in Gaza
**Description:** An article from Al Jazeera reporting on Hamas’s accusations regarding Israel’s stance on a ceasefire proposal.
**Date of Publication:** July 18, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The piece reports Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida accusing Israel of rejecting a deal that would release all captives, emphasizing no return to partial agreements if negotiations fail. It underscores the complexities in mediation efforts involving Qatar and Egypt. The article reflects ongoing tensions, with Hamas prioritizing a full end to hostilities as a non-negotiable condition.
3. **Title:** Where Do Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Negotiations Stand?
**Description:** A New York Times analysis of the current state of ceasefire talks, focusing on key sticking points.
**Date of Publication:** July 16, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This article outlines disagreements over aid distribution and a permanent end to hostilities, noting that talks for a two-month truce have stalled. It mentions U.S. involvement in mediation but highlights unresolved issues that could prolong the conflict. Expert opinions from diplomats suggest that without concessions, progress remains unlikely in the near term.
4. **Title:** While Gaza ceasefire remains elusive, UN readies for conference around Israel-Palestine two-State solution
**Description:** A UN News report on the challenges of achieving a ceasefire amid preparations for a broader peace conference.
**Date of Publication:** July 28, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The report describes the UN’s efforts to convene a conference on a two-state solution, acknowledging the distant prospect of peace given the October 2023 attacks and subsequent escalation. It notes that ceasefire negotiations have not advanced significantly, with Hamas and Israel holding firm on their positions. UN officials emphasize the humanitarian crisis in Gaza as a key factor pressuring for resolution, though no breakthroughs are reported.
5. **Title:** US, Israel recall teams from Gaza ceasefire talks after Hamas proposal
**Description:** An Al Jazeera article covering the U.S. and Israel’s withdrawal from negotiations due to Hamas’s response.
**Date of Publication:** July 24, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This piece details U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff accusing Hamas of lacking desire for a ceasefire, leading to the recall of negotiation teams. It highlights Hamas’s proposed amendments, such as timelines for permanent ceasefires and withdrawals, which were deemed unacceptable. The article indicates a setback in talks, with experts warning that this could delay any agreement into August or beyond.
6. **Title:** Israel and the U.S. Pull Back From Cease-Fire Talks With Hamas
**Description:** A New York Times report on the suspension of negotiations and its implications.
**Date of Publication:** July 24, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article explains that the U.S. and Israel pulled back from talks after deeming Hamas’s proposals unworkable, with President Trump’s envoy exploring alternative options for hostage releases. It cites diplomatic sources indicating a lack of progress on core issues like troop presence and governance in Gaza. Analysts suggest this move reflects growing frustration, potentially hardening positions on both sides.
7. **Title:** July 25, 2025 – Israel-Gaza news
**Description:** A CNN live update on the latest developments in the Israel-Gaza conflict, including ceasefire negotiations.
**Date of Publication:** July 25, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This update reports that Israel and the U.S. recalled negotiators from ceasefire talks after Hamas’s response, amid worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza. It notes accusations of bad faith from both sides, with starvation emerging as a critical concern. Experts from aid organizations highlight the urgency for a deal, but no immediate resolution is indicated.
8. **Title:** U.S., Israel cut short Gaza ceasefire talks, accuse Hamas of bad faith
**Description:** A National Post article on the breakdown of negotiations and mutual accusations.
**Date of Publication:** July 24, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article covers the decision to cut short talks after Hamas’s response to a 60-day truce proposal, with Israel blaming Hamas for unreasonable demands. It details ongoing disputes over aid flows and control of areas post-ceasefire. Commentators warn that this impasse could lead to further escalation, based on statements from U.S. and Israeli officials.
9. **Title:** Trump on Hamas: ‘They want to die’
**Description:** A POLITICO piece quoting President Trump’s comments on Hamas during ceasefire discussions.
**Date of Publication:** July 25, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This article features President Trump’s remarks criticizing Hamas for not wanting a deal and prioritizing leverage through hostages, made amid stalled negotiations. It links his statements to broader U.S. efforts to facilitate a truce, though without concrete outcomes. Experts interpret these comments as reflecting U.S. frustration, potentially influencing diplomatic pressure on Hamas.
10. **Title:** The Latest: Israeli official says a Hamas ceasefire proposal is ‘workable’
**Description:** A Newsday report on an Israeli assessment of Hamas’s latest proposal.
**Date of Publication:** July 23, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article states that an Israeli official described Hamas’s ceasefire proposal as “workable,” marking a potential shift in tone despite ongoing reviews. It outlines key elements like prisoner swaps and withdrawals but notes unresolved differences. Observers suggest this could be a step toward dialogue, though skepticism remains about actual implementation.
### Detailed Rundown of Relevant News and Context
Based on the citations above and additional recent sources, ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in July 2025 have been marked by significant stalemates and mutual accusations, with no definitive declaration as of July 30, 2025. Recent updates indicate a pullback in talks by the U.S. and Israel following Hamas’s response to a proposed 60-day truce, which included amendments for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawals—demands that U.S. and Israeli officials have labeled as unworkable. For instance, sources from late July (e.g., Al Jazeera and The New York Times) highlight that Hamas has consistently prioritized stopping hostilities and addressing humanitarian issues, while Israel has maintained its red lines, such as not fully ending the war before achieving security goals. This has led to a pattern of proposals and rejections, with no authoritative resolution source (like the UN Security Council) reporting a formal ceasefire agreement by the end of the month.
Key recent developments include the UN’s preparation for a conference on a two-state solution, as noted in a July 28 report, which underscores the broader context of elusive peace efforts amid the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Expert opinions from diplomats and UN officials emphasize the urgency, with statements from U.S. envoys and Israeli leaders suggesting that while some proposals show minor improvements (e.g., an Israeli official calling one “workable”), the lack of consensus on core issues like governance and aid distribution has prevented progress. Social media sentiment on platforms like X reflects divided opinions, with posts from commentators indicating frustration and blame on both sides, though these should be treated as inconclusive reflections of public discourse rather than factual evidence.
There are no specific numerical statistics or data points directly tied to this question, as ceasefire declarations are qualitative events rather than quantifiable metrics. However, historical context from the past year shows seasonal fluctuations in diplomatic intensity, often peaking in summer months like July due to international pressure, but dropping off without concrete outcomes. For authoritative sources, the UN Security Council’s Resolution 2735 from June 2025 remains a key reference, calling for acceptance of the proposal, but updates as recent as July 25 indicate no movement toward its full implementation. Overall, while there have been no recent breakthroughs signaling an imminent ceasefire, the ongoing negotiations and expert calls for compromise highlight the fluid nature of the situation.
Asknews Deep Search Error: ForbiddenError: 403000 – Only spelunker, analyst, and enterprise users can access Deep News. Please go to https://my.asknews.app/plans to upgrade.
Asknews Search Error: ForbiddenError: 403000 – API access is reserved for Spelunker and Analyst tiers only. Please upgrade your Pro plan at https://my.asknews.app/plans
GPT News Summary:
To provide a relevant and concise analysis for the superforecaster on the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in July 2025, here’s a brief rundown of recent developments from news sources:
1. **International Diplomatic Efforts**: According to a report from Al Jazeera dated July 28, 2025, there has been intensified diplomatic activity by the United Nations and key players such as the United States and Egypt to broker a temporary ceasefire. Talks are ongoing, with diplomats expressing cautious optimism about a potential breakthrough. However, no official agreements have been announced as of yet.
2. **Military Activity**: The Jerusalem Post on July 29, 2025, reported an escalation in hostilities, with both sides engaging in significant retaliatory strikes. Despite this, anonymous sources within the Israeli government hint at backchannel communications focused on de-escalation, suggesting a potential softening in stance if the conditions are favorable.
3. **Humanitarian Concerns**: Reuters reported on July 30, 2025, that the humanitarian situation in Gaza has worsened significantly. The growing humanitarian crisis is reportedly increasing international pressure on both parties to agree to a ceasefire, albeit temporarily, to allow for aid to reach affected civilians.
4. **Statements from Leaders**: On July 29, 2025, The Times of Israel quoted an unnamed senior official indicating that the Israeli government remains open to a ceasefire, but only under “reasonable conditions” that ensure long-term security. Meanwhile, on July 30, 2025, statements from a Hamas spokesperson suggested a willingness to consider a ceasefire if Israel ceases its military operations immediately.
5. **Public Opinion**: A recent poll conducted by Haaretz and published on July 30, 2025, shows that a majority of the Israeli public supports a ceasefire to prevent further loss of life, though there is significant division regarding the terms under which this should occur.
These recent developments provide both opportunities and obstacles to a ceasefire agreement being reached in the next couple of days. The convergence of increasing international diplomatic pressure and the mounting humanitarian crisis could push parties toward an agreement, although escalations on the ground and political conditions likely introduce complications. The superforecaster should weigh these elements carefully to determine the likelihood of a ceasefire being announced by the end of July 2025.
Extracted resolution criteria links:
[]
Adjacent Markets Research:
No relevant and active prediction markets found.
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Reasoning Rationale
## Analysis of Current Situation (as of July 30, 2025)
Based on the research assistant information, I need to determine the likelihood of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in the remaining days of July 2025 (essentially just July 31, given today is July 30).
The most recent evidence from July 29-30 shows:
1. **Stalled negotiations**: Multiple sources indicate talks have stalled, with Israel and the US recalling negotiation teams after deeming Hamas’s proposals unworkable.
2. **Hardening positions**: Netanyahu is considering annexation of Gaza territories as an alternative to ceasefire, suggesting Israel is moving away from a diplomatic solution.
3. **Mutual accusations**: Both sides accuse each other of negotiating in bad faith, with Hamas rejecting partial agreements and Israel rejecting Hamas’s conditions.
4. **International pressure**: While there are international efforts (UK plan, UN preparations), they appear aimed at September timelines rather than immediate resolution.
## Timeline Considerations
The critical factor is that there is only ONE DAY remaining in July 2025. This extremely compressed timeframe makes a ceasefire declaration highly unlikely, regardless of other factors. Even if negotiations suddenly restarted, the process of drafting, agreeing, and formally declaring a ceasefire typically takes multiple days to weeks, especially given the complexity of this conflict.
## Historical Base Rates
Looking at past Israel-Hamas conflicts:
– Ceasefires typically follow periods of intensive diplomatic efforts spanning weeks
– They often require multiple rounds of negotiations
– They typically need buy-in from international mediators (Egypt, Qatar, US)
– Final agreements usually require face-to-face meetings of negotiating teams
None of these conditions appear to be present as of July 30, with negotiating teams having been recalled and talks stalled.
## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: A sudden breakthrough could occur within 24 hours
**Probability of incorrectness**: 95% – Almost certainly incorrect given the current state of talks and recalled negotiating teams
2. **Assumption**: International pressure could force a rapid agreement
**Probability of incorrectness**: 90% – Highly likely incorrect given the hardened positions and lack of immediate pressure mechanisms
3. **Assumption**: The parties could declare a unilateral ceasefire
**Probability of incorrectness**: 85% – Very unlikely given Netanyahu’s statements about continuing the war and Hamas’s insistence on permanent ceasefire terms
## Probability Calculation
Given the extremely short timeframe (1 day) and the current state of negotiations (stalled with teams recalled), the probability of a ceasefire declaration is extremely low.
Base probability: 0.5% (representing the extremely unlikely scenario of a sudden breakthrough)
Adjusted for international pressure: +0.5% (slight possibility of unexpected intervention)
Adjusted for possibility of unilateral declaration: +0.5% (remote possibility)
Accounting for uncertainty in my reasoning and potential unknown factors: +0.5%
Probability: 2%
The extracted probability is: 2%
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Reasoning Rationale
I need to assess the probability of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared in July 2025, with today being July 30, 2025, and the resolution date being August 1, 2025. This gives only a 2-day window for a ceasefire to be declared.
## Analysis of Current Situation
From the research assistants’ reports, I can gather several key points:
1. **Current status of negotiations**: Multiple sources indicate talks have stalled or broken down:
– U.S. and Israel recalled negotiation teams after deeming Hamas’s proposals “unworkable” (July 24-25)
– Netanyahu is considering annexation options rather than ceasefire (July 29)
– Hamas has accused Israel and U.S. envoy of bad faith negotiations
2. **Key barriers to agreement**:
– Fundamental disagreements on terms (permanent vs. partial ceasefire)
– Hamas demands full withdrawal and permanent ceasefire
– Israel insists on continuing military operations until security goals met
– Netanyahu stated the war “isn’t over” (July 28)
3. **External pressure**:
– UK proposal linking Palestinian recognition to ceasefire (contingent on full hostage release)
– UN preparing for conference on two-state solution (July 28), but acknowledging distant prospects
– Humanitarian crisis creating urgency but not yet forcing compromise
## Time Constraints and Precedent
With only July 31 remaining in the month, a ceasefire would need to be declared tomorrow to resolve positively. This is an extremely tight timeframe given:
1. The reported breakdown in talks as recently as July 24-25
2. The continuing hostile rhetoric from both sides through July 29
3. The lack of any reported active negotiations in the most recent days
4. Historical precedent of Middle East ceasefires typically requiring weeks or months of negotiations, especially when positions are entrenched
## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: The reported breakdown in negotiations is accurate and current.
**Probability of being wrong**: 20% (Some backchannel negotiations could be occurring despite public statements)
2. **Assumption**: No significant external event will occur in the next 24 hours forcing an immediate ceasefire.
**Probability of being wrong**: 5% (Such events are rare but possible)
3. **Assumption**: The current positions of Hamas and Israel are too far apart to bridge in a single day.
**Probability of being wrong**: 15% (Compromise positions may be closer than publicly stated)
Even if we consider the possibility that some of these assumptions are wrong, the extremely short timeframe makes a ceasefire declaration highly unlikely.
## Final Assessment
Given:
– The stalled negotiations reported as recently as July 29
– The hardening of positions on both sides (Netanyahu considering annexation, Hamas demanding full withdrawal)
– Only 1 day remaining in July 2025
– No reports of active, promising negotiations in the most recent updates
– Historical precedent for ceasefire negotiations typically taking weeks or months
I assess that a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in July 2025 is highly unlikely. The combination of entrenched positions, recent breakdown in talks, and extremely limited time remaining makes this event very improbable.
Accounting for some uncertainty in my assumptions, I estimate:
Probability: 3%
The extracted probability is: 3%
________________________
Anthropic Binary response:
# Reasoning Rationale
To analyze the likelihood of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in July 2025, I need to carefully assess the current state of negotiations based on the most recent information available.
## Current Situation Analysis
From the research assistant reports, several key points emerge:
1. **Negotiations are currently stalled**: As of July 29-30, 2025, multiple sources indicate that ceasefire talks have broken down. The US and Israel have withdrawn from negotiations after deeming Hamas’s proposals “unworkable” (around July 24-25).
2. **Hardening positions**: Netanyahu is considering annexation of Gaza territories as an alternative to ceasefire, indicating a shift away from negotiated settlement. Hamas has accused Israel and US envoys of negotiating in bad faith.
3. **International pressure**: The UK is developing a plan that would recognize Palestinian statehood, contingent on a ceasefire and hostage releases, potentially aimed at the September UN General Assembly.
4. **Military operations continue**: Israel is maintaining or intensifying military pressure, with Netanyahu stating the war is continuing.
5. **Humanitarian situation**: The humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to worsen, creating international pressure for resolution.
## Time Constraints
Today is July 30, 2025, with the resolution date of August 1, 2025. This means there are only 2 days remaining in July for a ceasefire to be declared. This extremely short timeframe is critically important to my forecast.
## Base Rates and Historical Patterns
In previous Israel-Hamas conflicts, ceasefire negotiations typically took weeks or months to reach resolution, often with multiple failed attempts before success. The current conflict has been particularly prolonged and intractable, with negotiations repeatedly stalling.
Ceasefires typically require:
– Agreement on basic terms by both parties
– External mediator involvement (usually Egypt, Qatar, or the US)
– Time for technical implementation details to be worked out
None of these conditions appear to be in place as of July 30, 2025.
## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: The current reported state of negotiations (breakdown/stalemate) is accurate.
– Probability of being incorrect: 15%
– Impact if incorrect: If talks are secretly progressing more positively than reported, a ceasefire could be announced suddenly.
2. **Assumption**: Major breakthroughs in negotiations typically require days/weeks of preparation, not hours.
– Probability of being incorrect: 10%
– Impact if incorrect: If a pre-arranged framework is ready, implementation could be very rapid.
3. **Assumption**: Netanyahu’s reported consideration of annexation signals a move away from ceasefire.
– Probability of being incorrect: 30%
– Impact if incorrect: This could be a negotiating tactic rather than a genuine policy shift.
## Timeline Analysis
Given the extremely short timeframe (just 2 days), and the reported state of broken negotiations as of July 29-30, the likelihood of a sudden breakthrough is very low. Typically, ceasefire announcements follow a pattern of:
– Resumed negotiations
– Reports of “progress” in talks
– Hints from mediators about “nearing agreement”
– Preliminary statements from parties
– Formal announcement
None of these precursors are evident in the current reporting.
## Final Assessment
Based on the recent breakdown in talks, hardening positions, continued military operations, and extremely limited time remaining in July 2025, I assess that a ceasefire declaration is highly unlikely before August 1. However, I must account for:
– Limited visibility into secret negotiations
– Potential for sudden diplomatic breakthroughs
– Possible pressure from third parties (UK, Egypt, Qatar)
– The fluid nature of Middle East conflict dynamics
Weighing these factors and the time constraints heavily, I conclude that the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in the remaining days of July 2025 is very low.
Probability: 7%
The extracted probability is: 7%
Gemini Binary response:
## Forecast: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?
**Reasoning Rationale:**
The current date is July 30, 2025, and the resolution date is August 1, 2025. This means a ceasefire must be formally declared today, July 30, or tomorrow, July 31, to meet the criteria. The extremely narrow timeframe is a critical factor in this forecast.
Analysis of recent information from multiple reputable sources, up to July 30, 2025, strongly indicates that a ceasefire declaration within this window is highly improbable.
1. **Stalled Negotiations and Mutual Accusations:** Multiple reports from late July consistently highlight a breakdown in ceasefire talks. On July 29, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu squarely blamed Hamas’s “obstinacy” for preventing a deal, stating that negotiations have been ongoing but Hamas remains uncooperative. Similarly, on July 24, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff accused Hamas of “a lack of desire to reach a ceasefire,” leading to the recall of negotiation teams by both the U.S. and Israel. Hamas, in turn, has accused Israel of blocking an agreement and has also withdrawn its delegation from Doha for discussions in Turkey, signaling a significant setback.
2. **Continuation of Military Operations and Hardline Stances:** Despite international pressure, Israel continues military operations. Netanyahu has affirmed the war’s continuation, with discussions reportedly underway about “alternative options,” including the annexation of parts of Gaza, if Hamas does not agree to terms. Israeli officials have also stated that demands for a permanent ceasefire are “a distorted campaign of international pressure” that “ain’t gonna happen.” Hamas, conversely, continues to push for a full Israeli withdrawal and an end to the conflict, which Israel has rejected.
3. **Lack of Imminent Breakthrough Indicators:** While there is ongoing diplomatic activity and increasing international pressure due to the dire humanitarian situation, these factors are not translating into an immediate agreement. Reports from July 28-30 describe ongoing efforts to convene conferences on a two-state solution or discuss future governance, but explicitly state that ceasefire negotiations “have not advanced significantly” and that peace seems “as far away as ever.” The UN warns of an unfolding famine that cannot be reversed unless humanitarian access is unimpeded, yet this urgent need has not, to date, resulted in a ceasefire.
4. **Conflicting Messages and Uncertainty:** Although a July 23 report mentioned an Israeli official calling a Hamas proposal “workable” [10 – *Note: This citation might be from the research assistant’s initial review, as the provided search results show it under Newsday, not a Google search result. The actual search result 10 (Hamas delegation leaves Qatar for Turkey) doesn’t mention “workable”.* However, even if true, this was quickly overshadowed by the breakdown of talks on July 24-25.], the overwhelming sentiment from later and more comprehensive reports is one of impasse. A Haaretz report on July 30 mentioned Hamas receiving “conflicting messages” regarding the possibility of restarting indirect talks, but this highlights uncertainty rather than an impending declaration.
5. **Extremely Short Timeframe:** With only today (July 30) and tomorrow (July 31) remaining in July, a formal declaration would require an immediate and unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough. All current and highly recent reporting points to the opposite, with negotiators having been recalled, public blaming, and stated positions remaining far apart.
**Assumptions and their Potential Impact:**
* **Assumption 1: No major, unannounced diplomatic breakthrough will occur in the next 48 hours.** This is a critical assumption. If an unpublicized agreement has been reached or is on the verge of being declared, this forecast would be significantly off. However, given the nature of such a high-stakes agreement, it is highly unlikely to happen without prior indications, especially after public breakdowns in talks. The probability of this assumption being incorrect (i.e., a surprise breakthrough happens) is extremely low.
* **Assumption 2: A “ceasefire declared” requires a formal, public announcement by both parties or a recognized third party on their behalf, not just a de-escalation or temporary pause in fighting.** This is consistent with the common understanding of a ceasefire. If the criteria could be met by a less formal or unannounced halt in hostilities, the probability might slightly increase, but there is no indication of such a quiet agreement.
Given the overwhelming evidence of stalemate, continued hostilities, and the extremely short remaining time in July, the probability of a formal ceasefire being declared is very low.
Probability: 1%
The extracted probability is: 1%
All predictions: [1, 2, 3, 7]
Filtered predictions: [2, 3]
Median reasoning:
# Reasoning Rationale
I need to assess the probability of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared in July 2025, with today being July 30, 2025, and the resolution date being August 1, 2025. This gives only a 2-day window for a ceasefire to be declared.
## Analysis of Current Situation
From the research assistants’ reports, I can gather several key points:
1. **Current status of negotiations**: Multiple sources indicate talks have stalled or broken down:
– U.S. and Israel recalled negotiation teams after deeming Hamas’s proposals “unworkable” (July 24-25)
– Netanyahu is considering annexation options rather than ceasefire (July 29)
– Hamas has accused Israel and U.S. envoy of bad faith negotiations
2. **Key barriers to agreement**:
– Fundamental disagreements on terms (permanent vs. partial ceasefire)
– Hamas demands full withdrawal and permanent ceasefire
– Israel insists on continuing military operations until security goals met
– Netanyahu stated the war “isn’t over” (July 28)
3. **External pressure**:
– UK proposal linking Palestinian recognition to ceasefire (contingent on full hostage release)
– UN preparing for conference on two-state solution (July 28), but acknowledging distant prospects
– Humanitarian crisis creating urgency but not yet forcing compromise
## Time Constraints and Precedent
With only July 31 remaining in the month, a ceasefire would need to be declared tomorrow to resolve positively. This is an extremely tight timeframe given:
1. The reported breakdown in talks as recently as July 24-25
2. The continuing hostile rhetoric from both sides through July 29
3. The lack of any reported active negotiations in the most recent days
4. Historical precedent of Middle East ceasefires typically requiring weeks or months of negotiations, especially when positions are entrenched
## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: The reported breakdown in negotiations is accurate and current.
**Probability of being wrong**: 20% (Some backchannel negotiations could be occurring despite public statements)
2. **Assumption**: No significant external event will occur in the next 24 hours forcing an immediate ceasefire.
**Probability of being wrong**: 5% (Such events are rare but possible)
3. **Assumption**: The current positions of Hamas and Israel are too far apart to bridge in a single day.
**Probability of being wrong**: 15% (Compromise positions may be closer than publicly stated)
Even if we consider the possibility that some of these assumptions are wrong, the extremely short timeframe makes a ceasefire declaration highly unlikely.
## Final Assessment
Given:
– The stalled negotiations reported as recently as July 29
– The hardening of positions on both sides (Netanyahu considering annexation, Hamas demanding full withdrawal)
– Only 1 day remaining in July 2025
– No reports of active, promising negotiations in the most recent updates
– Historical precedent for ceasefire negotiations typically taking weeks or months
I assess that a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in July 2025 is highly unlikely. The combination of entrenched positions, recent breakdown in talks, and extremely limited time remaining makes this event very improbable.
Accounting for some uncertainty in my assumptions, I estimate:
Probability: 3%
=== Forecast Result ===
{
“probability_yes”: 0.025,
“probability_yes_per_category”: null,
“continuous_cdf”: null
}
=== Reasoning ===
# Reasoning Rationale
I need to assess the probability of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas being declared in July 2025, with today being July 30, 2025, and the resolution date being August 1, 2025. This gives only a 2-day window for a ceasefire to be declared.
## Analysis of Current Situation
From the research assistants’ reports, I can gather several key points:
1. **Current status of negotiations**: Multiple sources indicate talks have stalled or broken down:
– U.S. and Israel recalled negotiation teams after deeming Hamas’s proposals “unworkable” (July 24-25)
– Netanyahu is considering annexation options rather than ceasefire (July 29)
– Hamas has accused Israel and U.S. envoy of bad faith negotiations
2. **Key barriers to agreement**:
– Fundamental disagreements on terms (permanent vs. partial ceasefire)
– Hamas demands full withdrawal and permanent ceasefire
– Israel insists on continuing military operations until security goals met
– Netanyahu stated the war “isn’t over” (July 28)
3. **External pressure**:
– UK proposal linking Palestinian recognition to ceasefire (contingent on full hostage release)
– UN preparing for conference on two-state solution (July 28), but acknowledging distant prospects
– Humanitarian crisis creating urgency but not yet forcing compromise
## Time Constraints and Precedent
With only July 31 remaining in the month, a ceasefire would need to be declared tomorrow to resolve positively. This is an extremely tight timeframe given:
1. The reported breakdown in talks as recently as July 24-25
2. The continuing hostile rhetoric from both sides through July 29
3. The lack of any reported active negotiations in the most recent days
4. Historical precedent of Middle East ceasefires typically requiring weeks or months of negotiations, especially when positions are entrenched
## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: The reported breakdown in negotiations is accurate and current.
**Probability of being wrong**: 20% (Some backchannel negotiations could be occurring despite public statements)
2. **Assumption**: No significant external event will occur in the next 24 hours forcing an immediate ceasefire.
**Probability of being wrong**: 5% (Such events are rare but possible)
3. **Assumption**: The current positions of Hamas and Israel are too far apart to bridge in a single day.
**Probability of being wrong**: 15% (Compromise positions may be closer than publicly stated)
Even if we consider the possibility that some of these assumptions are wrong, the extremely short timeframe makes a ceasefire declaration highly unlikely.
## Final Assessment
Given:
– The stalled negotiations reported as recently as July 29
– The hardening of positions on both sides (Netanyahu considering annexation, Hamas demanding full withdrawal)
– Only 1 day remaining in July 2025
– No reports of active, promising negotiations in the most recent updates
– Historical precedent for ceasefire negotiations typically taking weeks or months
I assess that a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in July 2025 is highly unlikely. The combination of entrenched positions, recent breakdown in talks, and extremely limited time remaining makes this event very improbable.
Accounting for some uncertainty in my assumptions, I estimate:
Probability: 3%
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Source: Gaza Monitor https://acleddata.com/gaza-monitor/
