Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 25%
This question is a side competition with the RAND Forecasting Initiative’s forecasting of this question. Their consensus forecast today—>
8–10 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Pakistan India hostilities 2025
News from various sources:
The content extracted discusses the strategic military cooperation between India and the United States amidst geopolitical tensions in 2025. Key points include:
1. **India-US Military Talks**: India and the US are engaged in discussions over the possible sale of fifth-generation fighter jets, like the F-35, to India. These talks are part of broader discussions about strengthening military cooperation between the two nations.
2. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The discussions occur amidst rising geopolitical tensions, specifically focusing on India’s relations with Pakistan. India remains committed to non-escalatory measures in response to hostilities, emphasizing its preference for resolving issues with Pakistan through bilateral dialogue rather than involving third-party mediation.
3. **India’s Strategic Autonomy**: The dialogue highlights India’s intent to maintain strategic autonomy and national interest, even as it explores deepening its defense partnerships, particularly with the US.
4. **Indo-US Strategic Partnership**: The partnership is characterized by shared interests and mutual trust, reflecting a broader alignment of strategic goals between India and the United States.
The rest of the content contains general information about website browsing and categories, along with other unrelated news headlines and sections.
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with an assessment of their accuracy, importance to the resolution of the question, and relevance:
1. **Fact**: India and the US are engaged in discussions over the possible sale of fifth-generation fighter jets, like the F-35, to India.
– **Correctness**: Unable to verify as of October 2023. (Unverifiable within the scope of current knowledge)
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. (It relates to broader military cooperation but not directly to immediate hostilities or casualties)
– **Relevance**: False. (Does not directly impact the question about hostilities or casualties)
2. **Fact**: The discussions occur amidst rising geopolitical tensions, specifically focusing on India’s relations with Pakistan.
– **Correctness**: True, assuming the description is accurate for the context. (Rising tensions in Indo-Pak relations are a common geopolitical reality)
– **Importance**: Important. (Setting context for potential hostilities)
– **Relevance**: True. (Relevant in terms of assessing the likelihood of hostilities)
3. **Fact**: India remains committed to non-escalatory measures in response to hostilities, emphasizing its preference for resolving issues with Pakistan through bilateral dialogue rather than involving third-party mediation.
– **Correctness**: Broadly accurate. (India generally prefers bilateral dialogue with Pakistan)
– **Importance**: Important. (Indicates India’s approach, affecting likelihood of major conflict)
– **Relevance**: True. (Relevant to assessing potential for hostilities)
4. **Fact**: The dialogue highlights India’s intent to maintain strategic autonomy and national interest, even as it explores deepening its defense partnerships, particularly with the US.
– **Correctness**: True. (India’s policy is to maintain strategic autonomy)
– **Importance**: Lesser importance. (While relevant to military talks, not directly about Indo-Pak hostilities)
– **Relevance**: False. (Not directly relevant to Indo-Pak conflict concerns)
5. **Fact**: The Indo-US partnership is characterized by shared interests and mutual trust, reflecting a broader alignment of strategic goals between India and the United States.
– **Correctness**: True. (The US and India share strategic interests)
– **Importance**: Unimportant. (Background information on Indo-US relations)
– **Relevance**: False. (Does not directly affect Indo-Pak hostilities and casualties)
In conclusion, the summary contains a mix of relevant context (Item 2 and 3) and background information primarily about India-US relations, which is less directly pertinent to the specific question of Indo-Pak hostilities resulting in uniformed casualties.
Fact-checked summary:
India and Pakistan are experiencing rising geopolitical tensions, which is an important context for assessing the potential for hostilities. India remains committed to resolving issues with Pakistan through non-escalatory measures and bilateral dialogue, which is crucial in evaluating the likelihood of significant conflict or casualties. These facts are relevant to understanding the potential for hostilities to result in uniformed casualties between June and September 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 15%
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.40.30.20.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors, we calculate the Bayesian estimate considering: Past conflicts (40%), Current diplomatic efforts (30%), Regional geopolitical stability (20%), and Global political climate (10%). Assuming diplomatic efforts lower the probability by 30%, the calculated Bayesian probability is: (0.4 * 0.7) + (0.3 * 0.3) + (0.2 * 0.5) + (0.1 * 0.5) = 0.28
Bayesian base rate: 28%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 30
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate considers the historical frequency of conflicts between India and Pakistan, where escalations occur occasionally but not frequently result in uniformed casualties. The current commitment to non-escalatory measures further decreases the likelihood within the specified timeframe.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information on military movements, public statements from both governments, and international diplomatic interventions would enhance the forecast accuracy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Any unexpected political incident or provocation could lead to a rapid escalation in hostilities, which would diverge significantly from the base rate. Additionally, changes in domestic politics in either country could affect the diplomatic stance, influencing the probability of conflict.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– A significant escalation in geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan occurs. – Efforts for bilateral dialogue fail, leading to increased hostilities. – Both countries engage in military actions resulting in uniformed casualties.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.12 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.06
MAPD: 0.086666666666667
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.25 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.06
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value: 25%
The predictions regarding the likelihood of a significant conflict between India and Pakistan resulting in 100 or more uniformed casualties are based on historical analysis and current diplomatic stances. Historically, major escalations are rare, and the base rate of such a conflict is estimated at 0.15. Both countries have committed to non-escalatory measures and diplomatic dialogue, which reduces the probability of hostilities. With the evaluation period ending on September 30, 2025, the limited timeframe further constrains the possibility of escalation. Despite these mitigating factors, the predictions acknowledge a risk of incorrectness if unexpected incidents such as terrorist attacks, political provocations, or rapid escalations occur. Historical precedents like the Kargil conflict highlight the potential for quick deterioration of relations, emphasizing the importance of remaining cautious given the volatile geopolitical landscape.
Runtime: 127 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy’s bots —>
Source: https://kashmir.liveuamap.com/
