Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 25%
11–13 minutes read time
Here’s how it reached this answer:
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire August 2025
News from various sources:
The content revolves around ongoing efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict as of August 2025, and the continued military and humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza.
Key developments include:
1. **Ceasefire Negotiations**: Egypt, Qatar, and the United States are collaborating on a deal to establish a 60-day ceasefire that would include the release of some hostages and Palestinian detainees and facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Previous talks in July collapsed due to disagreements, particularly with Hamas withdrawing after the US and Israel did the same.
2. **Humanitarian Situation in Gaza**: The humanitarian crisis is severely worsening, with reports indicating starvation and malnutrition, particularly among children. Aid supplies are minimal, and there are considerable constraints on food and essential supplies entering Gaza. Moreover, Israeli plans to forcefully displace a significant portion of the population have raised international concerns about potential violations of international humanitarian law.
3. **Israel’s Military Strategy**: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated intentions to regain military control over Gaza, aiming to remove Hamas and establish a governance model that does not advocate for Israel’s destruction. This strategy includes heavy criticisms internally and externally, with opposition parties and military officials warning about the escalation of the humanitarian crisis and risks to Israeli hostages.
4. **International Reactions**: Australia, among other countries, has urged Israel to reconsider its military expansion plans, emphasizing the worsening humanitarian conditions. France and Canada have pledged to recognize a Palestinian state under certain conditions, highlighting an international push for a political solution.
5. **Protests and Public Sentiment**: Within Israel, the situation is causing division, with public protests demanding an end to the war and the release of hostages. Many Israelis are expressing fatigue over the prolonged conflict and are urging a negotiated settlement.
6. **Media and Public Opinion**: The international media continues to document the dire conditions in Gaza, with reports of significant infrastructure damage and challenges in delivering humanitarian aid. This has contributed to a growing international outcry against current military strategies, coupled with increasing calls for an immediate ceasefire.
Overall, the situation remains volatile with a complex mix of international diplomacy, military strategy, and humanitarian considerations playing a role in shaping the future of the Gaza conflict.
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, with an evaluation of their correctness, importance, and relevance:
1. **Ceasefire Negotiations Involving Egypt, Qatar, and the United States**: Egypt, Qatar, and the United States are working on a deal for a 60-day ceasefire involving hostages and aid.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent; external verification required.
– **Importance**: Critical; central to ceasefire prospects.
– **Relevance**: True; directly impacts the question of a ceasefire.
2. **Previous Talks in July Collapsed**: Talks failed due to disagreements, with Hamas withdrawing after the US and Israel.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent; external verification required.
– **Importance**: Important; indicates challenges to negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True; relevant to ongoing ceasefire efforts.
3. **Worsening Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza**: Severe malnutrition and constraints on supplies, with plans for forced displacement raising legal concerns.
– **Correctness**: Likely true, given historical context but specifics require verification.
– **Importance**: Important; impacts humanitarian considerations in ceasefire talks.
– **Relevance**: True; influences international and domestic pressure for ceasefire.
4. **Israel’s Military Strategy for Gaza**: Netanyahu’s aim to regain control and criticisms of this approach.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent; external verification needed.
– **Importance**: Important; affects dynamics of ceasefire negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True; informs understanding of military context.
5. **International Urgings Against Military Expansion**: Countries like Australia urge Israel to reconsider, with some countries pledging future recognition of Palestinian statehood.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent; individual country statements need verification.
– **Importance**: Important; international stance influences negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True; affects diplomatic pressure on ceasefire.
6. **Protests and Public Sentiment in Israel**: Public protests for dissolution and a peaceful resolution.
– **Correctness**: Generally true, assuming a volatile situation; specific levels of public sentiment would need accurate data.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance; indirect impact as public opinion is one of many factors.
– **Relevance**: True; pressures government, relevant to negotiation dynamics.
7. **Media and Public Opinion Internationally**: Reports on infrastructure damage and aid challenges increasing calls for ceasefire.
– **Correctness**: Likely true; requires checking specific outlets and narrative trends.
– **Importance**: Important; shapes international narrative and pressure.
– **Relevance**: True; contributes to global calls for ceasefire.
Overall, while the specifics of each development require external verification for full accuracy, most facts seem internally consistent and relevant to ongoing ceasefire considerations in August 2025.
Fact-checked summary:
In August 2025, efforts towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas are being actively pursued, with Egypt, Qatar, and the United States negotiating a 60-day ceasefire deal that involves hostages and aid, which is a critical aspect of ceasefire prospects. Previous negotiations in July collapsed due to disagreements, particularly after Hamas withdrew following the United States and Israel stepping away, indicating the challenges in reaching an agreement. The worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, characterized by severe malnutrition and restricted supplies, coupled with legal concerns over potential forced displacements, significantly impacts the humanitarian considerations within ceasefire talks. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s military strategy towards Gaza, aimed at regaining control, is an important factor affecting the dynamics of these negotiations. Furthermore, international pressure from countries such as Australia, urging Israel to reconsider its military expansion, adds a critical layer of diplomatic influence on the potential for a ceasefire. Public protests within Israel advocating for peaceful resolutions, although of lesser importance, contribute indirectly by pressuring the government in negotiation processes. International media coverage highlighting infrastructure damage and aid challenges plays an important role in shaping the narrative and amplifying global calls for a ceasefire.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Previous ceasefire attempts, 0.4
International diplomatic pressure, 0.3
Humanitarian crises in conflict regions, 0.2
Internal political dynamics in Israel and Palestine, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
P(success) = P(ceasefire|factors) * P(factors). Using the base rate of 0.3 and adjusting for increased international pressure and humanitarian crisis, estimated P(success) = 0.4.
Bayesian base rate: 0.4
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 60
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived from the frequency of previous ceasefires, historical diplomatic intervention outcomes, and the unique constraints posed by the current humanitarian crisis.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information on the internal political discussions within Israel and Hamas, as well as details on the negotiation terms and responses from other key stakeholders, would enhance the forecast.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Factors such as internal political instability in Israel or a change in the military strategy of either party could negatively impact the likelihood of a ceasefire.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Successful negotiation of a 60-day ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Possible
– Hostages exchanged as part of the ceasefire agreement. Possible
– Humanitarian aid successfully delivered to Gaza. Probable
– Sustained international pressure influencing Israel’s military strategy. Probable
– Reduction in military activity from both parties during negotiation efforts. Possible
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (Error: Mistral is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.1
MAPD: 0
Confidence: 4.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.17
Reverse Mellers: 0.33
Theory of Mind: 0.125 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.68
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 2
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value: 25%
The predictions regarding the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in August 2025 are primarily influenced by historical precedents, ongoing international mediation, and the challenging political and military dynamics between the parties involved. Past experiences suggest a low probability of successful negotiations within the remaining timeframe, especially given the recent collapse of talks and structural obstacles in the mediation process. However, worsening humanitarian conditions and international pressure could potentially catalyze a rapid agreement if there are undisclosed back-channel negotiations or if a major crisis emerges. While the base rate and current dynamics indicate low odds, unforeseen developments, such as shifts in mediation strategies or political landscapes, could lead to a more favorable outcome.
Runtime: 228 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Source: Gaza Monitor https://acleddata.com/gaza-monitor/
