Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 20%
This question is a side competition with the RAND Forecasting Initiative’s forecasting of this question. Their consensus forecast today—>
10–12 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Pakistan India hostilities 2025
News from various sources:
The content primarily discusses the political and military tensions between India and Pakistan in 2025, focusing on claims made by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a ceasefire between the two nations. Key points from the information are:
1. **Claims of Mediation**: U.S. President Donald Trump frequently asserted that his administration mediated the cessation of hostilities between India and Pakistan, claiming he helped prevent a war. Trump has reiterated these claims over 40 times, although this has been contested by Indian officials.
2. **India’s Position**: India maintains that the ceasefire was achieved through direct talks between India and Pakistan, without third-party mediation, despite Trump’s claims.
3. **Military Conflict Claims**: There was a mention of a conflict in May 2025, where India reportedly claimed it shot down six Pakistani fighter jets during a four-day conflict. However, this claim was strongly rejected by Pakistan, with Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stating that no Pakistani aircraft was hit. He described India’s claim as “implausible” and a “desperate attempt” to cover up failures.
4. **Diplomatic Oversight**: The U.S., under Secretary of State Marco Rubio, stated it was closely monitoring the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, acknowledging its fragility and emphasizing challenges in maintaining peace in volatile regions.
In summary, the tensions between India and Pakistan in 2025 are marked by conflicting narratives over military engagements and the role of U.S. mediation. India denies any involvement of the U.S. in its ceasefire agreement with Pakistan, whereas Trump aggressively claims credit for resolving these hostilities.
Fact-checking news summary:
To evaluate the possibility of hostilities resulting in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between June 2, 2025, and September 30, 2025, let’s reconstruct and verify specific facts from the summary:
1. **Fact**: U.S. President Donald Trump claimed his administration mediated the cessation of hostilities between India and Pakistan over 40 times.
– **Correctness**: True/False – Verification of this claim would require confirmation from reliable sources or records of Trump’s statements by reputable news outlets or official U.S. government records.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – While this may provide context about the U.S.’s political role, it does not directly impact the casualty count.
– **Relevance**: False – Claims of mediation do not directly relate to the casualty question.
2. **Fact**: India maintains that the ceasefire was achieved through direct talks between India and Pakistan.
– **Correctness**: True/False – Requires checking India’s official stance or statements from key Indian officials from credible sources.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – Provides context but does not directly relate to the casualty count itself.
– **Relevance**: False – This fact pertains to diplomatic processes rather than military engagement and casualties.
3. **Fact**: India claimed it shot down six Pakistani fighter jets during a conflict in May 2025.
– **Correctness**: True/False – This requires verification through military reports or statements from India or third-party validation like international monitoring.
– **Importance**: Important – If true, military engagements typically increase the likelihood of casualties, which is directly related to the question.
– **Relevance**: True – A relevant military conflict could relate to uniformed casualties.
4. **Fact**: Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated no Pakistani aircraft was hit.
– **Correctness**: Presumably true – As it is a statement from an official source, it generally is assumed to be true unless proven otherwise.
– **Importance**: Important – counters the claim regarding military engagements which impacts potential casualties.
– **Relevance**: True – Relevant as it challenges the occurrence of military engagements leading to casualties.
5. **Fact**: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the ceasefire was fragile and being closely monitored.
– **Correctness**: True/False – Requires official statements or confirmations from the State Department during that time.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – Does not directly impact the number of casualties, but provides context on diplomatic relations.
– **Relevance**: False – Does not have a direct bearing on the casualty outcome.
In conclusion, each fact does provide a piece of the overall context, but the most critical and relevant facts are those directly concerning military actions and engagements. Verification of the military conflict claims and corresponding casualty reports is crucial to predicting whether the specified casualty threshold might be reached.
Fact-checked summary:
To assess the possibility of hostilities between Pakistan and India resulting in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between June 2, 2025, and September 30, 2025, it is important to focus on the military conflict and engagement facts. The claim that India shot down six Pakistani fighter jets in May 2025 is notably important because military engagements typically increase the likelihood of casualties, making it directly relevant to the question. However, this claim requires verification through military reports or authoritative third-party sources. Additionally, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif’s statement that no Pakistani aircraft was hit is presumed to be true as it comes from an official source, countering the claim of military engagements, which impacts the potential for casualties. These conflicting reports indicate that the situation’s resolution depends on further verification of these claims. Understanding the actual military actions during this period is crucial for estimating whether the specified casualty threshold might be reached.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 15%,
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Historical India-Pakistan conflicts involving 100+ casualties, 0.3
Recent diplomatic engagements or peace talks, -0.2
Incidents of military conflict in the past 12 months, 0.4
International diplomatic pressure, -0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
P(A|B) = [P(B|A) * P(A)] / P(B). P(A) represented by base rate of 0.15. Influence of recent incident reports increases likelihood to moderate (P(B|A) = 0.5). Additional factors cause it to shift to 0.25, accounting for historical instances and diplomatic efforts.
Bayesian base rate: 0.25
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 42
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined using historical conflict data between India and Pakistan, along with the frequency of significant military engagements resulting in 100 or more casualties in recent history. The low occurrence of events reaching this casualty threshold provides a cautious base estimate.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Verification of military engagements via independent military reports would improve the forecast. Additionally, updated intelligence or expert assessments on diplomatic communications or military postures from both nations is needed.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Conflicting reports about military engagements may lead to a reevaluation of the probability if further evidence arises. An absence of confirmed military engagements could prevent the situation from escalating to the extent anticipated.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Verification of military engagements occurring between India and Pakistan. Likelihood: Moderate.
– Escalation of tensions leading to military confrontations between the two nations. Likelihood: Moderate.
– Total uniformed casualties reaching at least 100, including at least one death. Likelihood: Low to Moderate.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.08 – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 4)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 4)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.06
MAPD: 0.08
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.18
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value: 20%
The reasoning across the different AI analyses highlights that, despite recent tensions and unverified claims of military engagements such as fighter jets being shot down between India and Pakistan, the historical likelihood of such conflicts resulting in 100+ casualties remains low. This is attributed to the historical base rate for large-scale hostilities being approximately 15% and the lack of confirmed large-scale confrontations during the observed timeframe, most of which has already passed. Statements from Pakistani officials denying losses further reduce the likelihood of escalation. However, some AIs caution that ongoing information warfare or the potential for rapid escalation in the remaining days could lead to unanticipated outcomes, particularly if the claims of engagements are later validated. Furthermore, the possibility of third-party influences or misinterpretations based on public statements could affect the accuracy of current predictions.
Runtime: 143 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy’s bots —>
Source: https://kashmir.liveuamap.com/
