Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Aug, 20, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 35%

Here’s how it reached this answer:

11–14 minutes read time

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire August 2025
News from various sources:

In August 2025, Israel is considering a 60-day ceasefire offer from Hamas. This proposal involves a temporary truce and includes the potential release of hostages on both sides. Specifically, Hamas has suggested releasing 10 living hostages and the bodies of 18 deceased individuals in exchange for the release of 200 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Additionally, the ceasefire proposal includes clauses for a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and increased humanitarian aid into the region. This development comes amid ongoing negotiations facilitated by Egypt and Qatar, which are aimed at resuming peace talks under a U.S.-backed plan.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to make a decision on the proposal; however, Israel insists on the release of all hostages before agreeing to end the war. Hamas has already accepted the ceasefire proposal, which is seen as a step towards ending confrontations that have resulted in over 62,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza over nearly two years of conflict. The proposal also aims to address severe famine conditions faced by the 2.2 million residents of Gaza, caused in large part by the extended conflict and blockade.

While Hamas has agreed to the ceasefire, Israel’s acceptance hinges on specific concessions. The discussion is ongoing, and a decision from Netanyahu is expected soon. Meanwhile, international bodies and various countries are involved, hoping for an eventual resolution to the prolonged hostilities.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary along with an analysis of their correctness, importance, and relevance:
1. **Fact**: In August 2025, Israel is considering a 60-day ceasefire offer from Hamas.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, but verifying externally would depend on current future developments.
– **Importance**: Important, as it’s directly related to the question of whether a ceasefire will be declared.
– **Relevance**: True, because it directly pertains to the possibility of a ceasefire.
2. **Fact**: The ceasefire proposal involves a temporary truce and includes the potential release of hostages on both sides.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, but the specifics of hostage release would need external verification.
– **Importance**: Important, as it impacts the conditions under which a ceasefire might be declared.
– **Relevance**: True, because it affects the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement.
3. **Fact**: Hamas has suggested releasing 10 living hostages and the bodies of 18 deceased individuals in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, but specifics would require external verification.
– **Importance**: Important, as these terms are part of the negotiation details for a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, since this could influence Israel’s decision on the ceasefire.
4. **Fact**: The ceasefire proposal includes clauses for a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and increased humanitarian aid into the region.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, would need external updates to verify.
– **Importance**: Important, as these are key components that could affect Israel’s decision-making.
– **Relevance**: True, because these conditions might impact the outcome of ceasefire negotiations.
5. **Fact**: The proposal comes amid ongoing negotiations facilitated by Egypt and Qatar, aimed at resuming peace talks under a U.S.-backed plan.
– **Correctness**: Generally consistent with known diplomatic efforts, though specifics would require confirmation.
– **Importance**: Important, as international facilitation can significantly impact negotiation outcomes.
– **Relevance**: True, since international negotiations might lead to a ceasefire.
6. **Fact**: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to make a decision on the proposal.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, specific to future developments.
– **Importance**: Critical, as the Prime Minister’s decision is pivotal to declaring a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, the decision directly affects the likelihood of a ceasefire.
7. **Fact**: Israel insists on the release of all hostages before agreeing to end the war.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, external verification required for specifics.
– **Importance**: Critical, as this condition is a significant stipulation by Israel.
– **Relevance**: True, because it is a crucial aspect of Israel’s negotiation stance.
8. **Fact**: Hamas has agreed to the ceasefire proposal.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, requires external verification.
– **Importance**: Important, as Hamas’s agreement is a step toward a potential ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True, Hamas’s acceptance affects the potential outcome of the ceasefire.
9. **Fact**: The conflict has resulted in over 62,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza over nearly two years.
– **Correctness**: This number would need external verification for exactness.
– **Importance**: Lesser to Important, as the death toll underscores the conflict’s severity.
– **Relevance**: True as context, but not directly affecting the ceasefire decision.
10. **Fact**: The proposal aims to address famine conditions faced by the 2.2 million residents of Gaza.
– **Correctness**: Generally consistent with potential humanitarian goals of ceasefires.
– **Importance**: Important, as humanitarian concerns could influence both parties.
– **Relevance**: True, because addressing humanitarian issues can be a factor in negotiations.
Through analyzing these facts, the proposal’s acceptance by both sides and international negotiations are pivotal to the prospects of a ceasefire, though ultimately the decision lies with the Israeli Prime Minister, with hostage conditions as a critical factor.

Fact-checked summary:
In August 2025, Israel is considering a 60-day ceasefire offer from Hamas, which is important for the possibility of a ceasefire. The ceasefire proposal includes a temporary truce, the potential release of hostages, a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and increased humanitarian aid, all of which are key components that could affect Israel’s decision-making. The proposal comes amid ongoing negotiations facilitated by Egypt and Qatar, important because international facilitation can significantly impact negotiation outcomes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to decide on the proposal, highlighting his pivotal role in declaring a ceasefire. Israel’s insistence on the release of all hostages before agreeing to end the war is a critical stipulation. Hamas has agreed to the proposal, which is an important step toward a potential ceasefire. Addressing famine conditions faced by the 2.2 million residents of Gaza is also an important factor, as humanitarian issues can influence negotiations. Overall, the prospects of a ceasefire depend on these complex negotiations and conditions, with the Prime Minister’s decision and the issue of hostages being significant factors.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 25%
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.30.20.30.2
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
The base rate is adjusted considering recent facilitation efforts and historical factors. Assuming independence, the overall likelihood is recalculated by weighing these different factors: (0.3 * 0.4) + (0.2 * 0.2) + (0.3 * 0.5) + (0.2 * 0.3) = 0.36, indicating a slight increase in probability due to new negotiations. (Carolyn’s note: the correct answer is 0.37, or 37%. Struggles with arithmetic are typical of all generative AIs.)
Bayesian base rate: 36%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 60
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate reflects historical challenges in achieving long-term ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, compounded by complex negotiations over hostage release and political pressures. Historical mediation success rates suggest a low to moderate base probability.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Ideally, more information on Netanyahu’s current political considerations, the Israeli military’s stance, and any undisclosed negotiation terms would help refine the forecast. Insights into international community actions would also be beneficial.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Factors such as new international pressure, growing humanitarian concerns, and Hamas’ readiness to agree could increase the likelihood beyond historical precedents, while Netanyahu’s strategic calculations and non-negotiable points could lower it.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Hamas and Israel agree on all terms of the ceasefire proposal, including temporary truce and partial withdrawal of Israeli forces (moderate likelihood) – Successful international facilitation by Egypt and Qatar leads to a mutual agreement (moderate likelihood) – Netanyahu decides to accept the ceasefire proposal (low to moderate likelihood) – All hostages are released as part of the negotiation terms (low likelihood) – Increased humanitarian aid reaches Gaza and improves conditions (high likelihood)

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.25 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.09
MAPD: 0.13333333333333
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.29
Reverse Mellers: 0.4
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.14
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 35%

The prediction of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is influenced by several interrelated factors, primarily involving the complex negotiation dynamics mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Hamas has agreed to a 60-day ceasefire proposal that includes terms like hostage releases, partial Israeli withdrawal, and increased humanitarian aid. However, the main obstacle remains Israel’s insistence on the release of all hostages before agreeing to a ceasefire, coupled with Netanyahu’s strategic calculations and domestic political pressures. Although international pressure and the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza add urgency to the situation, the historical difficulty in achieving and sustaining ceasefires between the parties—reflected in a base rate of 0.25—complicates the outlook. The short timeframe remaining in August 2025 further constrains the possibility of a formal declaration, unless unexpected developments lead to rapid breakthroughs in negotiations or modifications to the
proposal that align with Israel’s core concerns.

Runtime: 149 seconds.