Ukraine Conflict Deaths? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Aug. 21, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in August 2025?

Here’s what Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

* Less than 500: 10%
* Between 500 and 1,000: 20%
* Between 1,000 and 1,500: 30%
* Between 1,500 and 2,000: 25%
* Greater than 2,000: 15%

10–13 minutes read

Checking internet sources, using keywords: August 2025 Ukraine conflict deaths
News from various sources:

The web content primarily focuses on recent developments in the Ukraine conflict as of August 2025. Here are the key points:
1. **Russian and NATO Tensions**: The Russian Ambassador to Indonesia, Sergei G. Tolchenov, stated that any official presence of NATO forces in Ukraine would be seen as direct aggression against Russia. Russia advocates for an alternative security guarantee plan involving diplomatic engagement from countries like Brazil and China.
2. **Diplomatic Efforts**: High-level talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump have been ongoing, with recent meetings in Anchorage, Alaska. Both leaders agree on the need for a sustainable resolution, with a focus on security concerns such as NATO presence and military bases in Ukraine. The possible involvement of NATO-like security guarantees without Ukraine joining NATO is being discussed.
3. **Peace Talks and Meetings**: President Trump has been active in organizing meetings between European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House to discuss peace and security guarantees. A trilateral meeting involving Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin is proposed.
4. **Security Guarantees**: Discussions are focusing on providing Ukraine with security guarantees resembling NATO’s Article 5, to deter future Russian aggression. This includes potential peacekeeping troops, defense, and intelligence support.
5. **Humanitarian Concerns**: The return of abducted Ukrainian children and prisoners is a crucial issue. First Lady Melania Trump has personally appealed to Putin on this matter.
6. **Conflict Developments**: Despite diplomatic efforts, Russian strikes on Ukraine continue, leading to civilian casualties. Reports highlight attacks in multiple Ukrainian cities, emphasizing the ongoing violence and humanitarian impact.
7. **Political Reactions**: U.S. politicians, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, express readiness to support President Trump with economic leverage in negotiations with Russia. The situation remains fluid, with a focus on achieving a lasting peace agreement.

Overall, the content highlights the complex interplay of diplomacy, security concerns, and ongoing conflict in the Ukraine situation as the international community seeks a resolution.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts mentioned in the summary, along with their evaluation:
1. **Fact**: The Russian Ambassador to Indonesia, Sergei G. Tolchenov, stated that any official presence of NATO forces in Ukraine would be seen as direct aggression against Russia.
– **Correct**: Internally consistent but not verifiable externally without sourcing.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important, as it indicates Russia’s stance and potential response.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True, as tensions impact conflict dynamics.
2. **Fact**: Russia advocates for an alternative security guarantee plan involving diplomatic engagement from countries like Brazil and China.
– **Correct**: Internally consistent but not verifiable externally without sourcing.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important, as it suggests alternative diplomatic routes.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True, as successful diplomatic alternatives could reduce conflict deaths.
3. **Fact**: High-level talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump have been ongoing, with recent meetings in Anchorage, Alaska.
– **Correct**: Internally consistent but not verifiable externally, especially the specific location and occurrence.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important, indicating direct negotiations between major parties.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True, as successful talks could result in decreased conflict deaths.
4. **Fact**: Diplomatic efforts focus on security concerns such as NATO presence and military bases in Ukraine.
– **Correct**: Internally consistent but not verifiable externally without sourcing.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important, as bases and NATO presence are central to security concerns.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True, due to the security implications affecting conflict dynamics.
5. **Fact**: A proposal for a trilateral meeting involving Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin is discussed.
– **Correct**: Internally consistent but hypothetical and not verifiable externally.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important, as such a meeting could facilitate conflict resolution.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True, if it occurs, it impacts conflict dynamics.
6. **Fact**: Discussions are focusing on providing Ukraine with security guarantees resembling NATO’s Article 5.
– **Correct**: Internally consistent but speculative without external verification.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Critical, as such guarantees might directly influence conflict behavior.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True, due to its potential impact on deterring aggression.
7. **Fact**: The return of abducted Ukrainian children and prisoners is a crucial issue; First Lady Melania Trump has personally appealed to Putin on this matter.
– **Correct**: Internally consistent but cannot be verified externally, especially the specific involvement of Melania Trump.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Lesser importance, as it primarily concerns humanitarian aspects.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True, as it addresses humanitarian issues which could contribute to diplomatic efforts.
8. **Fact**: Russian strikes on Ukraine continue, leading to civilian casualties; attacks in multiple Ukrainian cities are reported.
– **Correct**: Likely true based on ongoing conflict reports, but specific details are not verified in this summary.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Critical, as the continuation of strikes and casualties directly influences conflict death toll.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True, as it pertains directly to conflict deaths.
9. **Fact**: Political support in the U.S. exists, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressing support for economic leverage in negotiations with Russia.
– **Correct**: Internally consistent but specifics not verifiable without sourcing.
– **Importance to Resolution**: Important, as U.S. political support affects diplomatic strength.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True, as political and economic pressures influence the negotiation process and conflict resolution.

**Overall Summary**: Most facts are internally consistent with the narrative but lack external verification, affecting their factual accuracy. They range from important to critical concerning the question’s resolution and are generally relevant to conflict dynamics and potential resolution, impacting the number of conflict-related deaths.

Fact-checked summary:
The summary addresses several factors relevant to the potential number of state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine in August 2025, as reported by ACLED. Russian strikes on Ukraine continue to result in civilian casualties across multiple cities, directly influencing the death toll, which is of critical importance. High-level discussions between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump have been ongoing, and successful negotiations could lead to a decrease in conflict deaths, marking them as important to the resolution. Diplomatic efforts that focus on security concerns, such as NATO presence and military bases in Ukraine, also play a crucial role due to their potential impact on conflict dynamics. Political support within the U.S., demonstrated by Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s backing for economic leverage in negotiations with Russia, emphasizes the significance of diplomatic and economic pressure in the resolution process. These factors collectively highlight the complexity of the conflict and the potential outcomes impacting the number of conflict-related deaths.

Couldn’t get base forecast

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.15, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.35, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.3, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.15, “Greater than 2000”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.2, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.35, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.25, “Greater than 2000”: 0.15] – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.1, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.2, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.3, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.25, “Greater than 2000”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 4
MAPD: Avg: 0.066666666666667, Max: 0.1
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:
* Less than 500: 10%
* Between 500 and 1,000: 20%
* Between 1,000 and 1,500: 30%
* Between 1,500 and 2,000: 25%
* Greater than 2,000: 15%

The various AI summaries collectively emphasize the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict as a primary factor influencing casualty rates through 2024-2025, with active military engagements typically resulting in 500-1500 deaths per month based on historical ACLED data. While August is seen as a period of heightened military activity, recent diplomatic discussions between Russia and the U.S., particularly involving Putin and Trump, could lead to a potential de-escalation in conflict intensity. This diplomatic angle introduces a degree of variability, potentially lowering death toll estimates if successful. Conversely, the potential for escalation remains if such talks fail or unanticipated military offensives occur, possibly driving casualties beyond 2,000. The unpredictability of conflict dynamics, including possible NATO and U.S. involvement, adds further uncertainty, as do potential reporting inaccuracies or variations in defining conflict deaths.

Runtime: 166 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Jeremy’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. The VIEWS Ukraine dashboard is pictured below. (Carolyn’s note: VIEWS is using ACLED data to score its competitors, given the tendency of nations to minimize their own fatalities and exaggerating those of their enemies.)