Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Aug, 27, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 35%

Here’s how it reached this answer:

10–12 minutes read time

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire August 2025
News from various sources:

In August 2025, discussions on a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas were ongoing, mediated primarily by Egypt and Qatar. Hamas had accepted a proposal involving a 60-day ceasefire, the release of several hostages, and substantial humanitarian aid. However, Israel, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, had not officially responded, pushing instead for the release of all hostages as a precondition.

Despite the acceptance of the proposal by Hamas, tensions remained high as Israel prepared for an expanded military operation in Gaza, with plans to reoccupy significant areas such as Gaza City. This military escalation coincided with a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, exacerbated by Israeli blockades.

Domestically, Israel faced large-scale protests demanding the government secure the release of the hostages. Internationally, there was widespread condemnation of Israel’s military tactics, especially following reports of airstrikes on civilian areas, including hospitals in Gaza.

Negotiations remained complex, with mediators attempting to align the conflicting demands of both parties amidst the humanitarian crisis and political tensions in Israel. Despite the dire situation, a permanent resolution seemed elusive, characterized by ongoing military action and political unrest.

Fact-checking news summary:

1. **Fact**: In August 2025, discussions on a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas were ongoing, mediated primarily by Egypt and Qatar.
– **Accuracy**: Unable to verify (as this event is set in the future).
– **Importance**: Critical – The progress of ceasefire discussions is fundamental to determining if a ceasefire will be declared.
– **Relevance**: True – Directly pertains to the ceasefire outcome.
2. **Fact**: Hamas accepted a proposal involving a 60-day ceasefire, the release of several hostages, and substantial humanitarian aid.
– **Accuracy**: Unable to verify (as this event is set in the future).
– **Importance**: Critical – Acceptance of the ceasefire proposal by one party is crucial to achieving a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True – Key to potential ceasefire agreement.
3. **Fact**: Israel, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, had not officially responded to the proposal, pushing for the release of all hostages as a precondition.
– **Accuracy**: Unable to verify (as this event is set in the future).
– **Importance**: Critical – Israel’s response is crucial to progressing towards a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True – Core issue affecting the ceasefire decision.
4. **Fact**: Israel prepared for an expanded military operation in Gaza, with plans to reoccupy areas such as Gaza City.
– **Accuracy**: Unable to verify (as this event is set in the future).
– **Importance**: Important – Military actions can impact the dynamics and urgency of ceasefire negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True – Could influence the likelihood of accepting a ceasefire.
5. **Fact**: The military escalation coincided with a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, exacerbated by Israeli blockades.
– **Accuracy**: Unable to verify (as this event is set in the future).
– **Importance**: Important – Humanitarian situations often pressure conflicting sides toward agreeing to a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True – Relevant to the pressure for a ceasefire.
6. **Fact**: Domestically, Israel faced large-scale protests demanding the government secure the release of the hostages.
– **Accuracy**: Unable to verify (as this event is set in the future).
– **Importance**: Important – Domestic pressure can influence government decisions in negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True – Relevant to Israel’s position on the ceasefire.
7. **Fact**: International condemnation of Israel’s military tactics, especially airstrikes on civilian areas.
– **Accuracy**: Unable to verify (as this event is set in the future).
– **Importance**: Important – International pressure may impact negotiation strategies and willingness to agree.
– **Relevance**: True – Influences international context of negotiations.
8. **Fact**: A permanent resolution seemed elusive, characterized by ongoing military action and political unrest.
– **Accuracy**: Unable to verify (as this event is set in the future).
– **Importance**: Important – Highlights the difficulty in reaching a long-term ceasefire or peace, affecting short-term agreements.
– **Relevance**: True – Sets context for the negotiations environment.
In conclusion, while each fact is important for understanding the broader context of negotiations, the outcome of the ceasefire talks primarily hinges on the official positions and responses of Israel and Hamas, as well as the mediator’s ability to reconcile these positions.

Fact-checked summary:
As of August 2025, discussions on a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas were ongoing, with critical mediation efforts by Egypt and Qatar. Although Hamas accepted a proposal for a 60-day ceasefire involving hostage releases and humanitarian aid, Israel, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, had not officially responded, maintaining that the release of all hostages was a necessary precondition. The importance of these negotiations is emphasized by Israel preparing for an expanded military operation in Gaza, which could influence the dynamics of the ceasefire talks. Additionally, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, exacerbated by blockades, adds pressure for a resolution. Domestically, large-scale protests in Israel demanding the release of hostages may affect government negotiating positions. Furthermore, international condemnation of Israeli military tactics could shape the broader negotiation environment. While achieving a permanent resolution is challenging due to ongoing military action and political unrest, these elements collectively shape the negotiations and the potential for a ceasefire declaration. Each of these factors is important to consider in evaluating the possibility of a ceasefire in August 2025.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.4, Moderately successful history
0.3, Mixed results, but key in past negotiations
0.2, Often influences political decisions
0.1, Increased global involvement can push for resolutions
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
The Bayesian probability is calculated using the historical factors and current news impact: P(Ceasefire|New Information) = (P(New Information|Ceasefire) * P(Ceasefire)) / P(New Information). Assigning approximate weights and likelihoods to current factors derives a probability higher than the base rate due to strong international and civil pressure.
Bayesian base rate: 0.4
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 3
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by examining recent similar ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, where successful temporary ceasefires occurred about 30% of the time, adjusting for current pressures such as significant domestic protests and international mediation.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional insights into the exact terms each party is considering or rejecting, detailed movements and capabilities of mediators, and possible changes in international diplomatic stances or interventions would improve the forecast’s accuracy.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
The entrenched military conflict and political positions might reduce the probability of reaching a ceasefire. Continued military escalation or hardened political rhetoric from Israel could significantly diminish the chances of agreement.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Israel officially responds to ceasefire proposal with acceptance – moderate likelihood – Hamas maintains its acceptance of the ceasefire – high likelihood – Both parties agree on terms for hostage release – moderate likelihood – International community supports and possibly enforces the ceasefire – moderate likelihood – Domestic pressures and protests in Israel sway government decision-making – high likelihood – Egypt and Qatar maintain effective mediation throughout – high likelihood

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.05 – confidence: 8)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.16
MAPD: 0.26666666666667
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.35 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.73
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 20%

The various AIs suggest that while a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by the end of August 2025 is unlikely, it is not impossible. Key factors influencing this assessment include Israel’s lack of an official response to the ceasefire proposal and its precondition for the release of all hostages, which complicates negotiations. Despite Hamas’s acceptance and international mediation efforts by Egypt and Qatar, the possibilities of military escalation and political intransigence maintain the low probability of an agreement. However, domestic protests in Israel could sway government decisions, or an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough could lead to rapid progress. The presence of international pressure, humanitarian concerns, and potential emergency interventions by influential powers like the US might alter the situation, though historical patterns and current tensions suggest difficulties ahead.

Runtime: 257 seconds.