Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Sept. 3, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of September 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 20%

Here’s how it reached this answer:

10–13 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire September 2025
News from various sources:

The content describes ongoing developments relating to the Israel-Hamas conflict as of September 2025. Here are the key points:
1. **Conflict Overview**: The Israeli military continues its offensive in Gaza, targeting Hamas leaders and increasing air strikes, leading to significant casualties, with over 60,000 Palestinians reported killed since October 7, 2023. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is severe, with a growing number of malnutrition-related deaths.
2. **Ceasefire and Diplomatic Efforts**: Despite the dire situation, there are no immediate plans for a ceasefire. The UK and France announced they would recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel takes steps towards peace, including a ceasefire and allowing aid convoys into Gaza. The UK has set conditions for Israel, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been engaging with leaders globally to support this move.
3. **Reactions to UK’s Decision**: The UK’s announcement has drawn mixed reactions. Some view it as a positive step towards a two-state solution, while others, including Israeli officials and families of hostages held by Hamas, argue it may incentivize Hamas by rewarding terrorism. Israel perceives the move as a setback to peace negotiations and criticizes the lack of reciprocal demands on Hamas.
4. **Humanitarian Crisis**: The humanitarian situation in Gaza is critical, with limited aid entering, reports of malnutrition-related deaths, and significant displacement among Palestinians. The Israeli blockade and ongoing conflict have exacerbated the crisis, and accusations persist that aid is not reaching those in need due to alleged Hamas interference.
5. **International and Local Responses**: The international community is divided, with some countries like Spain and Norway recognizing Palestine to pressure Israel. The US, however, maintains its stance that recognition should occur only as part of a broader peace process. The Israeli Prime Minister has considered annexing parts of Gaza if Hamas does not agree to a ceasefire.
6. **Media Coverage and Information Access**: Due to restrictions, international media rely on local reporters in Gaza for updates on the ground situation. Israel has limited foreign media access to Gaza.
Overall, the situation remains complex, with significant humanitarian concerns and geopolitical maneuvering amid ongoing conflict.

Fact-checking news summary:
Let’s extract and evaluate the specific facts from the summary:
1. **Fact**: The Israeli military continues its offensive in Gaza as of September 2025, targeting Hamas leaders and increasing air strikes.
– **True/False**: Unable to verify with given information – likely portrayed in the summary but can’t be verified currently.
– **Importance**: Important – Provides context about the ongoing military actions.
– **Relevance**: True – Directly pertains to the likelihood of a ceasefire.
2. **Fact**: Over 60,000 Palestinians have been reported killed since October 7, 2023.
– **True/False**: Unable to verify with given information.
– **Importance**: Important – Highlights the scale of the conflict impacting ceasefire considerations.
– **Relevance**: True – Relevant to understanding the intensity of the conflict and humanitarian situation.
3. **Fact**: There are no immediate plans for a ceasefire.
– **True/False**: As per the summary, True.
– **Importance**: Critical – Directly answers the original question about the possibility of a ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True.
4. **Fact**: The UK and France will recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel takes steps towards peace.
– **True/False**: Unable to verify with given information.
– **Importance**: Important – Political actions influencing ceasefire and diplomatic resolution.
– **Relevance**: True.
5. **Fact**: Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been engaging with leaders globally to support recognizing a Palestinian state.
– **True/False**: Unable to verify with given information.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – Provides perspective on diplomatic efforts.
– **Relevance**: True.
6. **Fact**: The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is severe with significant malnutrition-related deaths.
– **True/False**: As per the summary, True.
– **Importance**: Important – Humanitarian issues often influence international pressure for ceasefire.
– **Relevance**: True.
7. **Fact**: Some people view the UK’s decision as a positive step towards a two-state solution.
– **True/False**: Likely True, as documented in the summary, but specific reactions can vary.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – Represents opinions rather than hard facts.
– **Relevance**: True.
8. **Fact**: Israel perceives the UK’s announcement as a setback to peace negotiations.
– **True/False**: Likely True, based on reported Israeli reactions in similar scenarios.
– **Importance**: Important – Israeli reaction influences peace negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True.
9. **Fact**: The Israeli Prime Minister considers annexing parts of Gaza if Hamas does not agree to a ceasefire.
– **True/False**: Unable to verify with given information.
– **Importance**: Important – Strategic moves could impact ceasefire negotiations.
– **Relevance**: True.
10. **Fact**: The US maintains that recognition of Palestine should occur only as part of a broader peace process.
– **True/False**: Likely True, reflecting consistent US policy stance.
– **Importance**: Important – Major global player’s stance impacts diplomatic resolutions.
– **Relevance**: True.
11. **Fact**: International media relies on local reporters in Gaza due to restrictions and limited access.
– **True/False**: Likely True, given ongoing conflict and historical precedent.
– **Importance**: Lesser importance – Influences information dissemination.
– **Relevance**: False – Less directly relevant to ceasefire outcome.
This analysis can be used to support strategic discussions regarding negotiations and international diplomatic efforts related to the conflict.

Fact-checked summary:
As of September 2025, there are no immediate plans for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which is critical as it directly answers the question of whether a ceasefire will be declared in that month. Additionally, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is described as severe, with significant malnutrition-related deaths, highlighting the dire situation that often drives international pressure for a ceasefire. The UK and France’s potential recognition of a Palestinian state unless Israel acts towards peace, as well as the broader geopolitical stance of the US, suggest that diplomatic actions are influencing the ongoing conflict dynamics. These facts underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the situation, influencing the potential for future diplomatic resolutions.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 15%
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.50.30.2
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors and considering current situations, let’s assume a normal year sees a 0.10 probability of a ceasefire in similar conditions (based on past ceasefires and crisis escalations resulting in resolutions). Given current heightened diplomatic efforts and severe humanitarian conditions, we adjust upwards by approx 50%. Bayesian adjustment yields 0.10 * 1.5 = 0.15.
Bayesian base rate: 15% Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 27
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was established by examining past instances of ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, considering the frequency of these events in protracted conflicts and the current elevated international diplomatic engagements.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Having precise information on behind-the-scenes diplomatic negotiations and military intents could improve the forecast. Additionally, more frequent updates on shifts in international diplomatic stances and internal political changes within Israel and Palestinian territories would be beneficial.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
The current political climate is particularly volatile, which could lead to either an unexpected resolution or further escalation, diverging from historical patterns.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire – Unlikely
– Significant international diplomatic pressure from key stakeholders like the US, UK, France – Somewhat likely
– Humanitarian crisis escalation prompting international intervention – Somewhat likely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.08 – confidence: 4)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 20%
Base rate: 15% (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
MAPD: 0.11333333333333
Confidence: 4
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.22
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 20%

The likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by the end of September 2025 is considered low due to several factors: the historically infrequent and short-lived nature of such ceasefires, the current absence of active negotiations, and the volatile political climate. The base rate for ceasefires is notably low, and while international diplomatic pressure from the US, UK, and France and the severe humanitarian crisis might push for a resolution, no immediate plans for a ceasefire are in motion. There is potential for unexpected developments, such as secret negotiations, a drastic humanitarian situation, or political upheavals, which could alter this prediction. However, given the short timeframe and current lack of ceasefire momentum, the forecast remains pessimistic, though subject to rapid changes due to the unpredictable nature of the situation.

Runtime: 174 seconds.