Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s Sudan conflict deaths forecast, Oct. 13, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 12%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 22%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 28%
More than 12,000: 32%

7–9 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan 2025 deaths
News from various sources:

In 2025, Sudan is experiencing severe humanitarian crises due to an ongoing civil war and a cholera outbreak. Key findings include:
1. **Cholera Outbreak**: The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that over 3,000 people have died from cholera throughout Sudan over the past 14 months. The outbreak, originating in Kassala state, has now spread to all 18 states of the country. In Darfur alone, there are 12,739 cases and 358 deaths. WHO has initiated a vaccination campaign in North Darfur to combat the disease, but efforts are hindered by severe access constraints.
2. **Civil War**: Since April 2023, Sudan has been embroiled in a civil war between the Sudanese military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This conflict has resulted in at least 40,000 deaths and the displacement of approximately 12 million people. The war has led to widespread atrocities, including ethnic cleansing, extrajudicial killings, and sexual violence, exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation.
3. **Humanitarian Impact**: The war has pushed many people to the brink of famine, limiting access to essential services such as clean water, food, and healthcare. The United Nations describes Sudan as facing one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The UN’s refugee agency estimates that 11.8 million people have been displaced, with 7 million internally displaced and over 3 million fleeing to neighboring regions.
4. **International Response**: International efforts to broker peace include initiatives by the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, focusing on a potential ceasefire and transition to civilian governance. However, the Sudanese civic and anti-war groups express skepticism about these efforts due to the involvement of external actors with vested interests.
Overall, the combination of ongoing conflict and a severe cholera outbreak has compounded Sudan’s humanitarian crisis, necessitating urgent international intervention and sustained support to alleviate the suffering of millions.

Fact-checking news summary:
Fact-check did not return a result. Using news summary.

OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of exceeding 12,000 deaths
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Cholera mortality rate in similar contexts, 0.4
Impact of civil wars on population health, 0.35
Efficiency of international humanitarian interventions, 0.25
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors: Cholera case fatality rate is typically 1-3%. In this outbreak, reporting is higher at ~3%, exacerbated by war conditions. Histories of prolonged civil conflicts show decreased health outcomes, raising baseline risk. International interventions so far inadequate given current situation. Combined probabilities suggest base rate adjustment upwards to 0.95 due to multiplier effect of compounded crises.
Bayesian base rate: 0.96 (Carolyn‘s note: In cases where the Multi-AI Oracle is only forecasting a single percent probability, this Bayesian rate is easy to understand, an adjustment to a probability. But in this case, with five probability buckets, this apparently is an overall adjustment factor across all buckets.)

Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 45 (Carolyn’s note: error! Counting today, Oct. 13, through the end of Dec. 31, 80 days, calculated by 19 in October, 30 in November, and 31 in December. This is a reminder that today’s generative AIs don’t actually reason.)

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
Derived from multiple factors including historical severity of cholera outbreaks, and statistics on mortality due to conflicts in Sudan. Given the scale of cholera and current humanitarian intervention limitations, a high base rate of exceeding 12,000 deaths seems warranted.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information on specific distribution of relief efforts, real-time monitoring of disease management, and changes in military conflict intensity would provide better forecasting clarity.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential breakthrough in peace talks or more effective vaccination and medical distribution could mitigate disease spread and reduce death rate. Alternatively, the situation might worsen if the conflict escalates or international focus dissipates.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Cholera outbreak continues to spread across Sudan with inadequate control measures. – Civil war remains unresolved, leading to continued casualties and displacement. – Lack of effective international intervention or insufficient humanitarian aid reaching those in need.

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.12, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.22, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.28, “More than 12000”: 0.32] – confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.24] – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.01, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.02, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.06, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.2, “More than 12000”: 0.7] – confidence: 7)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.10222222222222, Max: 0.30666666666667
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 12%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 22%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 28%
More than 12,000: 32%

The various AIs predict a continued high death toll in Sudan due to the severe ongoing civil war, which has led to at least 40,000 deaths since 2023, and is exacerbated by a widespread cholera outbreak affecting all 18 states. The conflict has resulted in significant displacement and a humanitarian crisis marked by lack of access to essential services such as food, water, and healthcare. Historical patterns and the current ineffective international intervention suggest these dire conditions will persist, maintaining high mortality rates. However, there could be factors that might alter this prediction, such as significant international interventions leading to peace negotiations and ceasefires, or successful management of the cholera epidemic through vaccination, which could reduce the death toll. Yet, the skepticism around peace talks and international efforts implies continued challenges in addressing the crisis.

Runtime: 282 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.