Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Aug, 6, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?

11-13 minutes read time

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 10%.

Here’s how it reached this answer:

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire July 2025
News from various sources:

In July 2025, attempts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas have stalled, with U.S. and Israeli officials blaming Hamas for the breakdown in talks. The primary sticking points are Hamas’s demand for a full Israeli withdrawal and Israel’s demand for Hamas to disarm and release all hostages.

Humanitarian conditions in Gaza have worsened significantly, with reports of starvation and malnutrition among children due to an ongoing blockade and restrictions on aid. The United Nations and major news organizations have urged Israel to allow more substantial aid deliveries, with international aid efforts being stymied by logistical and political barriers. The war, which began as a response to a 2023 Hamas attack, has resulted in extensive casualties and severe humanitarian distress in Gaza.

The U.S. envoy, Steve Witkoff, acknowledged the dire situation and stated that talks would pause for consultations as the U.S. considers alternative actions to resolve the hostage crisis and stabilize Gaza. Meanwhile, various Arab nations, including Jordan and the UAE, are considering or have begun coordinating aid deliveries, although these efforts face Israeli restrictions.

Amidst these challenges, international criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza is rising, with consequences for its diplomatic relations, especially with European nations threatening to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state. This situation poses moral and strategic dilemmas for Israel, given the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the lack of a clear military victory over Hamas.

Fact-checking news summary:
Based on the given summary, here’s a list of specific facts along with their analysis:
1. **Fact:** Attempts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas have stalled in July 2025.
– **Correctness:** True, according to the summary.
– **Importance:** Critical, as it directly addresses the possibility of a ceasefire.
– **Relevance:** True, this is directly relevant to the question of whether a ceasefire will be declared.
2. **Fact:** U.S. and Israeli officials blame Hamas for the breakdown in talks.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent with the summary; unable to verify externally without additional sources.
– **Importance:** Important, as it provides insight into the perceived reasons for the stall in ceasefire talks.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant as it explains the status of ceasefire negotiations.
3. **Fact:** The primary sticking points are Hamas’s demand for a full Israeli withdrawal and Israel’s demand for Hamas to disarm and release all hostages.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent; logical, but cannot verify externally without further information.
– **Importance:** Important, as it explains the reasons behind the stalling of ceasefire talks.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant to understanding negotiation challenges.
4. **Fact:** Humanitarian conditions in Gaza have worsened significantly due to starvation and malnutrition among children.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent within the summary. External verification needed for accuracy.
– **Importance:** Important, as humanitarian conditions influence international and political dynamics.
– **Relevance:** True, as worsening conditions may pressure parties into a ceasefire.
5. **Fact:** There is an ongoing blockade and restrictions on aid in Gaza.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent; typically consistent with historical real-world conditions, but needs external data for verification.
– **Importance:** Important, as it affects humanitarian scenarios and potential resolutions.
– **Relevance:** True, relevant as it describes the context of urgency for ceasefire talks.
6. **Fact:** The United Nations and major news organizations have urged Israel to allow more substantial aid deliveries.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent; believable, given historical actions, but requires external verification.
– **Importance:** Important, as it indicates international pressure on Israel.
– **Relevance:** True, as international actions can influence the likelihood of ceasefire.
7. **Fact:** The war began as a response to a 2023 Hamas attack.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent; plausible if there was historical reporting of a 2023 attack but requires external sourcing for confirmation.
– **Importance:** Lesser, as it’s a background fact rather than directly connected to the status in July 2025.
– **Relevance:** True, provides context but not directly affecting the ceasefire outcome.
8. **Fact:** U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff stated that talks would pause for consultations.
– **Correctness:** True within the summary’s context; needs further reference to verify.
– **Importance:** Important, as it shows the status of ongoing diplomatic efforts.
– **Relevance:** True, related to the current pause in negotiations.
9. **Fact:** Various Arab nations are coordinating aid deliveries, facing Israeli restrictions.
– **Correctness:** True within the summary; typical of real-world scenarios but lacks external confirmation in this instance.
– **Importance:** Important, as it reflects regional efforts impacting the humanitarian landscape.
– **Relevance:** True, as it highlights ongoing aid efforts which could influence ceasefire progress.
10. **Fact:** International criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza is rising, affecting diplomatic relations.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent and plausible based on historical political responses; requires external verification.
– **Importance:** Important, as it may influence Israel’s strategic calculations.
– **Relevance:** True, as diplomatic pressure is relevant to ceasefire considerations.
Overall, the combination of these facts establishes a picture of stalled ceasefire negotiations, with humanitarian concerns being a significant factor amidst ongoing international and regional diplomatic efforts.

Fact-checked summary:
In July 2025, attempts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas have stalled, a critical development directly addressing the possibility of a ceasefire. Humanitarian conditions in Gaza have worsened significantly, with severe starvation and malnutrition among children, an important factor as such conditions influence international and political dynamics and may pressure parties into a ceasefire. The ongoing blockade and restrictions on aid in Gaza exacerbate these conditions, underscoring the urgency for ceasefire talks. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has indicated that talks would pause for consultations, showing the current status of diplomatic efforts. Various Arab nations are coordinating aid deliveries despite facing Israeli restrictions, reflecting significant regional efforts that impact the humanitarian landscape. Additionally, international criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza is rising, which affects diplomatic relations nd may influence Israel’s strategic calculations regarding the ceasefire. These factors combine to highlight significant obstacles and pressures influencing the ongoing negotiations.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 30%
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.20.30.30.2
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Combining historical factors: P(Agreement | Factors) = Base rate * (1 + weighted factors adjustment). Base rate = 0.3, weighted factors adjustment = (0.2*0.2 + 0.3*0.3 + 0.3*0.3 + 0.2*0.2) leading to a minor adjustment of 0.06, suggesting a P(Agreement | Factors + Current context) ≈ 0.36.
Bayesian base rate: 36%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 90
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 30% reflects a moderate likelihood, derived from historical ceasefires and the complexity of such negotiations. Past experience suggests that while ceasefires are achieved, they are difficult given ongoing crises and volatile geopolitics.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional data on military actions and political statements from Israel, Hamas, and key mediators. Internal political pressures in Israel and Gaza and any intelligence leaks or inside information regarding negotiation details can improve forecast accuracy.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
The deteriorating humanitarian situation and growing international criticism might increase pressure on Israel, altering their calculus towards a ceasefire. Conversely, escalation of conflict or external intervention could either hasten or impede talks unpredictably.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire – Likelihood: Moderate – International diplomatic pressure increases significantly on both parties – Likelihood: Moderate to High
– Humanitarian situation in Gaza worsens further, prompting a response – Likelihood: High
– U.S. and key Arab nations successfully mediate a negotiation breakthrough – Likelihood: Low to Moderate
– Israel and regional actors reach an agreement on the easing of blockade restrictions to improve humanitarian conditions – Likelihood: Low to Moderate

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0 – confidence: 10)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 7)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.1
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.1
MAPD: 0.16666666666667
Confidence: 7
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.04
Reverse Mellers: 0.19
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.99
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 10%

The reasoning across various AI analyses concludes that despite significant international pressure and a deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza, no ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was declared in July 2025. Efforts to broker peace were hindered by stalled diplomatic talks, particularly involving the U.S. envoy, and ongoing Israeli security concerns which outweighed humanitarian considerations. Historically, achieving and maintaining ceasefires in this conflict is complicated, with a low likelihood of breakthroughs. Although there remains a possibility of sudden diplomatic shifts or increase in external pressure altering the situation, the persistent geopolitical dynamics and mutual distrust between the parties contributed to the failure of reaching a ceasefire in the given period.

Runtime: 189 seconds.