Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Sept. 10, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of September 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 20%

Here’s how it reached this answer:

10–13 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Israel Hamas ceasefire September 2025
News from various sources:

In September 2025, Israel carried out a targeted airstrike in Doha, Qatar, aiming to assassinate senior Hamas leaders meeting for ceasefire negotiations. Khalil al-Hayya, a prominent Hamas leader, survived the attack, although several other Hamas officials and al-Hayya’s son were killed. This incident drew widespread condemnation internationally.

The attack took place at a residential compound in Doha, damaging the area significantly. Israeli military officials stated the operation was precise and aimed at eliminating key figures responsible for orchestrating prior attacks on Israel. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the attack as justified, attributing it to Hamas’s involvement in previous hostilities.

The international community, including nations like Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, and Ireland, alongside organizations such as the UN, condemned the attack as a violation of Qatar’s sovereignty and a threat to regional stability. They emphasized the importance of diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza. U.S. President Donald Trump commented on the incident, stating the attack was not his decision but maintained that eliminating Hamas was a just objective.
This event highlights the ongoing tensions and challenges in the region, as well as the international response advocating for diplomacy over military actions to resolve the conflict.

Fact-checking news summary:
Certainly! Below is a list of specific facts from the summary, each checked for correctness, importance, and relevance to determining whether a ceasefire will be declared between Israel and Hamas in September 2025.

1. **Fact:** In September 2025, Israel carried out a targeted airstrike in Doha, Qatar, aiming to assassinate senior Hamas leaders meeting for ceasefire negotiations.
– **Correct?** False (Israel carrying out a military operation in Qatar is highly unlikely due to diplomatic and geopolitical ramifications; no supporting evidence outside this context.)
– **Importance:** Critical
– **Relevant?** True
2. **Fact:** Khalil al-Hayya, a prominent Hamas leader, survived the attack, although several other Hamas officials and al-Hayya’s son were killed.
– **Correct?** False (No supporting evidence for this specific event; requires trust in provided information which is questionable.)
– **Importance:** Critical
– **Relevant?** True
3. **Fact:** The attack drew widespread international condemnation.
– **Correct?** True (Condemnation would logically follow any military operation in another nation’s territory.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevant?** True
4. **Fact:** The attack took place at a residential compound in Doha, damaging the area significantly.
– **Correct?** False (Very unlikely situation without existing evidence; damaging residential areas in a foreign sovereign state.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevant?** True
5. **Fact:** Israeli military officials stated the operation was precise and aimed at eliminating key figures responsible for orchestrating prior attacks on Israel.
– **Correct?** False (Speculative without external corroboration; typical phrasing of military justification but needs evidence.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevant?** True
6. **Fact:** Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the attack as justified, attributing it to Hamas’s involvement in previous hostilities.
– **Correct?** False (Unverified statement; requires cross-reference with actual diplomatic statements.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevant?** True
7. **Fact:** The international community, including Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, and Ireland, alongside organizations such as the UN, condemned the attack.
– **Correct?** True (Assuming there was an attack, condemnation by these entities is plausible based on patterns of diplomatic response.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevant?** True
8. **Fact:** The attack is considered a violation of Qatar’s sovereignty and a threat to regional stability.
– **Correct?** True (Fits within international law principles and typical diplomatic stances.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevant?** True
9. **Fact:** Nations emphasized the importance of diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza.
– **Correct?** True (Consistent with international diplomatic approaches to conflict.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevant?** True
10. **Fact:** U.S. President Donald Trump commented on the incident, stating the attack was not his decision but maintained that eliminating Hamas was a just objective.
– **Correct?** False (Donald Trump is not the U.S. President in 2025, this timeline is incorrect.)
– **Importance:** Critical
– **Relevant?** True
11. **Fact:** This event highlights ongoing tensions and challenges in the region.
– **Correct?** True (Consistent with the historical context of the Israel-Hamas conflict.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevant?** True
12. **Fact:** There is an international response advocating for diplomacy over military actions to resolve the conflict.
– **Correct?** True (Consistent with typical international diplomatic efforts.)
– **Importance:** Important
– **Relevant?** True

Overall, many of the facts presented as critical in determining the possibility of a ceasefire declaration in September 2025 are either false or lack external verification, casting doubt on the likelihood of a ceasefire given the described scenario.

Fact-checked summary:
International condemnation followed claims of an attack, assuming a plausible scenario, as stated by nations including Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, Ireland, and organizations such as the UN. This alleged incident was deemed a violation of Qatar’s sovereignty and a threat to regional stability, underscoring ongoing tensions between Israel and Hamas. Highlighting these tensions, the international community emphasized the importance of diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza, consistent with traditional international law principles and diplomatic responses to conflict. The broader context suggests ongoing challenges in achieving a ceasefire, with advocacy for diplomacy over military actions remaining prominent in international discourse.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.15 (15%)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
0.30.20.30.2
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
To calculate the Bayesian probability, we start with the historical base rate of 0.15 for similar geopolitical conflicts reaching a ceasefire. Considering recent escalations (weight 0.3, lowers probability), international diplomatic pressure (weight 0.3, raises probability), and internal willingness (weight 0.2, slightly lowers probability), we adjust the initial rate by these factors. The Bayesian probability adjustments lead to a slightly lower adjusted probability, reflecting the complexities of the current situation.
Bayesian base rate: 0.12 (12%)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 0 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 180
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was calculated by considering the historical success of reaching ceasefire agreements in similar conflicts. The ongoing tensions and recent international responses highlight the complexity and challenges in this situation. Historical patterns show limited success without strong international pressure and cooperation from both parties.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information that could improve the forecast includes detailed reports on current secret or public diplomatic efforts, the internal political situation and pressures within both Israel and Hamas, and any ongoing international negotiations that are not widely covered.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Factors that might cause a divergence from the base rate include a sudden shift in internal political dynamics within Israel or Hamas, unexpected external diplomatic interventions, or major geopolitical shifts affecting the region.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– An internationally recognized ceasefire agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas. Low
– Diplomatic interventions by key international players such as the UN, Turkey, and Qatar effectively lead to de-escalation. Moderate
– Both Israel and Hamas agree to the terms without significant internal or external opposition. Low
– Sustained cessation of hostilities for a predefined period post-agreement. Low

Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.08 – confidence: 3)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 3)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.2
Base rate: 0.15 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.06
MAPD: 0.08
Confidence: 3
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.29
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.18
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value: 20%

The likelihood of achieving a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by September 2025 is generally assessed as low due to several factors. These include the compressed timeline with only 20 days left in September, the historically low base rate of ceasefires, ongoing intense hostilities, and the complex nature of negotiations which usually require extended diplomatic efforts. Recent international condemnations and escalating tensions further diminish chances of de-escalation. However, scenarios such as a significant diplomatic breakthrough, either through secret negotiations, a geopolitical shift, intensified international pressure, or changes in leadership, could unexpectedly increase the probability of a ceasefire. Thus, while the current outlook is pessimistic, the inherent unpredictability of the conflict means that sudden changes could alter the situation substantially.

Runtime: 119 seconds.