Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Phil Godzin’s forecast of Aug. 13, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of August 2025?

Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai bot predicts today: 5%
11–14 minutes read (Carolyn’s note: This is a condensed version of pgodzinai’s results. Full rationale here —>)

Perplexity response:

I need to establish what evidence exists that could indicate whether a ceasefire is likely to be declared in August 2025. From the search results given, I have several relevant pieces of information:
ILTV Morning News Flash from August 7, 2025:
– This indicates Israel is weighing a “full Gaza takeover” in a high-stakes Security Cabinet meeting
– It mentions “collapsed ceasefire talks”
– It suggests Israel is moving toward military action rather than ceasefire
France 24 article from August 13, 2025:
– Mentions “Israel broke the ceasefire as it was set to move into its second phase”
– States Israel “cut off all humanitarian aid into Gaza and renewing its military offensive”

This is particularly critical evidence: the France 24 article from today (August 13, 2025) explicitly states Israel broke a ceasefire. This suggests there was a ceasefire that has now ended.

Grok response:

### Detailed Rundown of Relevant News and Context:
Based on the cited sources and additional recent information from authoritative outlets, ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas remain stalled as of August 13, 2025, with several indicators of escalation rather than progress. Recent updates, particularly from the past week, show Israel approving plans to occupy Gaza City (as reported by NBC News and The Washington Post on August 8-9, 2025), which has drawn international criticism and could further complicate talks. Expert opinions from sources like The New York Times and Reuters emphasize the widening gap in demands—Hamas seeks a full Israeli withdrawal and unrestricted aid, while Israel insists on disarmament and security controls—potentially making a ceasefire declaration in August 2025 unlikely without major concessions.

Key recent developments include the collapse of indirect talks mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S., as noted in multiple sources (e.g., Reuters on August 5, 2025, and CNN updates from August 8, 2025). There are no authoritative statistics on polling or approval ratings directly tied to this question, but UN reports (e.g., from July 28, 2025) highlight the humanitarian crisis, with estimates of ongoing displacement and aid shortages underscoring the urgency. For instance, CNN’s July 31, 2025, update mentions Hamas’s insistence on aid delivery, reflecting data from UN agencies on starvation risks, though exact figures are not resolution-specific.

While posts on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) reflect public sentiment of frustration and warnings about annexation or escalation, these are inconclusive and not treated as factual evidence. Authoritative sources, such as the UN and U.S. officials, indicate no movement toward a formal ceasefire declaration as of mid-August 2025, with experts like those cited in The New York Times warning that continued military actions could harden positions. Historical context from Wikipedia (August 11, 2025) shows a pattern of failed negotiations since since late 2024.

Anthropic Binary response:

1. The France 24 report from today (August 13) explicitly states “Israel broke the ceasefire as it was set to move into its second phase, instead cutting off all humanitarian aid into Gaza and renewing its military offensive.”
2. ILTV reporting from August 7 indicates “collapsed ceasefire talks” and Israeli government plans to “fully take over the Gaza Strip militarily” with a “phased plan to conquer vast new areas of Gaza over a five-month period.”

## Time Constraints and Trajectory
We are already on August 13, meaning there are only 18 days remaining in the month. Given that Israel has just broken a ceasefire and initiated new military operations today, the likelihood of a complete reversal of this policy within such a short timeframe is extremely low. Military operations, once initiated, typically require weeks to achieve their objectives. Netanyahu’s government has specifically endorsed a “five-month period” for their military plan, suggesting no intention to stop operations before September.

## Counterbalancing Factors
There are a few factors that could theoretically lead to a ceasefire declaration:
1. Egypt is reportedly seeking a 60-day truce (per France 24), which shows some diplomatic efforts continue.
2. International pressure could intensify if humanitarian conditions worsen dramatically.
3. The Trump administration is reportedly considering an “all-for-all approach” that would involve a “cessation of military activities.”

## Historical Context
Previous ceasefire negotiations in this conflict have typically taken weeks or months to materialize, even under more favorable conditions. The January 2025 ceasefire mentioned in the Press Emblem Campaign source required extensive negotiations. The current breakdown is particularly significant as it represents the termination of an existing ceasefire that was “set to move into its second phase,” indicating a deliberate decision to abandon a negotiated framework.

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## Probability Assessment
Given that:
– Israel has explicitly broken a ceasefire and initiated new military operations today (August 13)
– Israeli leadership has endorsed a five-month military operation plan
– Only 18 days remain in August 2025
– Historical patterns show ceasefire negotiations typically require weeks or months
– No concrete proposals for an immediate ceasefire appear to have traction

Gemini Binary response:
**Today’s Date: August 13, 2025**
**Resolution Date: September 1, 2025**
**Timeframe for Event: August 13, 2025 – August 31, 2025**

### 1. Assessment of Current Situation and Trends:
The most critical information available is the report from France 24 on August 13, 2025, which explicitly states that “Israel broke the ceasefire as it was set to move into its second phase, instead cutting off all humanitarian aid into Gaza and renewing its military offensive.” This directly indicates that, as of today, an existing ceasefire has been terminated by Israel, and military operations have resumed. This is a significant move *away* from a declared ceasefire.

### 2. Time Sensitivity and Urgency:
Only 18 days remain in August (from August 13 to August 31). For a ceasefire to be *declared* within this short timeframe, there would need to be an immediate and drastic reversal of current stated policies, military actions, and negotiation stances by both Israel and Hamas. Given that an existing ceasefire was just broken and military operations renewed, the momentum is entirely in the opposite direction.

### 3. Base Rates and Historical Context:
Ceasefires in protracted conflicts like the one between Israel and Hamas are inherently difficult to achieve, often requiring extensive, prolonged negotiations and significant concessions from both sides. The current situation, with one party having just broken a ceasefire and embarking on a declared military offensive, presents an exceptionally challenging environment for a new declaration to emerge so quickly. The general base rate of positive resolutions in such forecasting questions is also historically lower than 50%, further weighing against a positive outcome in the absence of compelling evidence.

=== Reasoning ===
## Current Situation Assessment
Based on the most current information (as of August 13, 2025), the situation between Israel and Hamas appears to be deteriorating rather than moving toward ceasefire. Multiple sources indicate:
1. **Recent Ceasefire Breakdown**: According to France 24 (August 13, 2025), “Israel broke the ceasefire as it was set to move into its second phase” and has resumed military operations. This indicates a ceasefire was in place but has been terminated as of today.
2. **Israeli Military Escalation**: The ILTV Morning News Flash (August 7, 2025) reports Israel is “reportedly leaning towards fully taking over the Gaza Strip militarily” with “a phased plan to conquer vast new areas of Gaza over a five-month period.” The Carnegie Endowment confirms Israeli officials have “endorsed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recommendation that Israel should fully occupy the Gaza Strip.”
3. **Failed Negotiations**: Multiple sources refer to “collapsed ceasefire talks” (ILTV, Carnegie), indicating that diplomatic efforts have recently failed.
4. **Egyptian Proposal Rejected**: France 24 reports that Egypt was seeking a 60-day truce, but Israel has rejected this approach and instead resumed hostilities.

## Timeline Analysis
Today is August 13, 2025, leaving only 18 days until the end of the month. Within this short timeframe, several factors make a new ceasefire declaration unlikely:
1. **Active Military Operations**: Israel has just restarted military operations as of today (France 24), making an immediate reversal improbable.
2. **Strategic Shift**: Israel appears to have made a significant strategic decision to pursue full occupation rather than negotiation, as evidenced by the security cabinet meeting reported by multiple sources.
3. **Diplomatic Momentum**: All diplomatic indicators point away from ceasefire and toward escalation, with no reported progress in negotiations.
4. **Historical Patterns**: Previous ceasefires, like the one announced in January 2025 (Press Emblem Campaign), typically required extensive preparation and negotiation.

## Weighing Key Assumptions
1. **Assumption: The security cabinet decision is final** (90% confidence)
The Israeli security cabinet decision to pursue full military occupation appears to be a major policy shift. While theoretically reversible, the reported endorsement by security officials and the immediate implementation suggest this is a committed strategy.
2. **Assumption: No major external intervention will occur** (80% confidence)
While the Trump administration is “considering abandoning its incremental approach” (Carnegie), there’s no concrete evidence of imminent U.S. pressure sufficient to force a ceasefire in the next 18 days.
3. **Assumption: Hamas position remains unchanged** (85% confidence)
No sources indicate Hamas has shifted its position to accept terms more favorable to Israel, which would be necessary for a rapid ceasefire declaration.

## Base Rate Considerations
Historical patterns in this conflict suggest ceasefires typically follow:
– Extended negotiations (often weeks or months)
– Significant international pressure
– Clear military objectives being achieved by one side
None of these conditions appear to be imminent based on the available information.

## Probability Calculation
Given:
– Israel has just broken an existing ceasefire (August 13)
– Security cabinet has approved plans for full military occupation
– Ceasefire talks have collapsed
– Only 18 days remain in August
– No indications of diplomatic breakthroughs
– Active military operations are ongoing

The evidence strongly suggests a very low probability of a ceasefire being declared in the remaining days of August 2025. The primary evidence indicating any possibility is Egypt’s reported effort to seek a 60-day truce, but this has already been rejected according to France 24.

Accounting for unexpected diplomatic developments and the inherent unpredictability of the conflict, I assess:

Probability: 5%