Updates from BestWorld’s AI Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman of Dec. 9, 2024

What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, up from 10% last week. 

Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:

“Nippon Steel, Japan’s leading steel producer, is pursuing a bid valued between $14 billion and $15 billion to acquire US Steel as part of its strategy to expand internationally in response to Japan’s declining population. While Nippon Steel has expressed its intent to preserve jobs and enhance competitiveness, the proposed acquisition faces significant political opposition in the United States. Both President-elect Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have voiced national security concerns and job loss implications, with indications that they might block the merger. Despite resistance from key political figures and labor unions, Nippon Steel remains hopeful about finalizing the deal, although the outcome remains uncertain amidst complex geopolitical considerations.”

Fact-checking news summary: Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, along with evaluations of their correctness and relevance to the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025:

1. **Fact**: Nippon Steel is Japan’s leading steel producer.
– **Correctness**: True (Nippon Steel is widely recognized as a leading steel producer in Japan).
– **Relevance**: False (Nippon Steel’s status itself is not directly relevant to the probability of the merger announcement).

2. **Fact**: Nippon Steel is pursuing a bid valued between $14 billion and $15 billion to acquire US Steel.
– **Correctness**: True (Assuming current verified reports, the bid range is presented as accurate).
– **Relevance**: True (The bid is directly related to the probability of the merger announcement).

3. **Fact**: Nippon Steel’s strategy is to expand internationally in response to Japan’s declining population.
– **Correctness**: True (The strategy aligns with general business practices in response to domestic issues).
– **Relevance**: True (The strategy influences the motivation and urgency of the acquisition).

4. **Fact**: The proposed acquisition faces significant political opposition in the United States.
– **Correctness**: True (Political opposition is a common concern in international mergers of this nature).
– **Relevance**: True (Political opposition significantly impacts the probability of merger approval/announcement).

5. **Fact**: Both President-elect Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have voiced concerns about the merger.
– **Correctness**: False (Donald Trump is not the President-elect as of the context provided, making this part factually incorrect. However, current or past political figures expressing concern is typical in such contexts).
– **Relevance**: True (Political figures opposing the merger impact its probability).

6. **Fact**: Concerns include national security and job loss implications.
– **Correctness**: True (Such concerns are commonly raised in international mergers involving significant industries).
– **Relevance**: True (These are substantial factors affecting merger approval).

7. **Fact**: Nippon Steel is hopeful about finalizing the deal.
– **Correctness**: True (As stated, companies often remain hopeful despite external challenges).
– **Relevance**: True (Nippon Steel’s stance influences their persistence and actions towards the merger).

8. **Fact**: The outcome of the merger remains uncertain amidst complex geopolitical considerations.
– **Correctness**: True (Given the stated opposition and typical complexities in such deals, uncertainty is accurate).
– **Relevance**: True (This directly relates to the probability of the merger being announced).

Overall, while most of the facts provided are correct and relevant, some characterizations of political figures’ roles contain contradictions, impacting the evaluation.

Fact-checked summary: Nippon Steel is actively pursuing a bid valued between $14 billion and $15 billion to acquire US Steel, which directly relates to the probability of the merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025. The company is motivated by a strategy to expand internationally due to Japan’s declining population, which adds urgency to the acquisition. However, the proposed merger faces significant political opposition in the United States, which is a substantial factor affecting its approval and announcement. Concerns about national security and potential job losses are central issues in this opposition. Despite these challenges, Nippon Steel remains hopeful about finalizing the deal. The outcome is uncertain, given the geopolitical complexities involved, which directly impacts the likelihood of the merger being announced by the specified date.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.2. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:

The base rate of 0.2 reflects the combination of factors influencing the likelihood of the merger announcement by January 21, 2025. Similar large-scale international acquisitions often face regulatory scrutiny, and the current political climate in the US adds complexity. Nippon Steel’s motivation to expand internationally and its active pursuit of the bid positively influence the likelihood, but the significant opposition due to national security and political concerns makes approval challenging. Historically, only a fraction of such large acquisitions proceeds quickly to official announcement in similar circumstances.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Factors that could cause the resolution to differ from the base rate include a shift in political attitudes that favor foreign acquisitions, potentially swifter-than-expected regulatory approvals due to economic interests, or successful lobbying by Nippon Steel to mitigate national security concerns. Additionally, any economic or geopolitical changes that prompt a more favorable environment for international mergers and acquisitions could increase the likelihood of an announcement before the deadline.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:  – Nippon Steel and US Steel must finalize an agreement on the terms of the merger. (Likely)
– Nippon Steel must secure the necessary financing for the acquisition. (Very likely)
– The merger must receive approval from relevant US regulatory bodies. (Unlikely) – Political and national security concerns in the US must be sufficiently addressed or mitigated. (Unlikely)
– There must be no significant geopolitical events that disrupt negotiations or approvals. (Moderately likely)

Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 4)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.2 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.275 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.88
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.15

We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The prediction regarding the likelihood of a merger announcement by January 21, 2025, for Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel is influenced by several factors. Key positive indicators include Nippon Steel’s commitment to international expansion and their strategic interest to counter Japan’s demographic challenges. However, significant hurdles exist, primarily related to regulatory scrutiny and political opposition in the US due to national security concerns and potential job losses. Historical precedents of lengthy approval processes for large international acquisitions further complicate the situation. Additionally, the tight timeframe and current political climate add to the challenge, suggesting a low base probability of the merger announcement. Nonetheless, possible changes in political attitudes, successful lobbying efforts by Nippon Steel, and unforeseen economic or geopolitical shifts could potentially improve the merger’s prospects.

Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 57%, up from 35% last week.

Obtaining outside newsfeed.  Summarizing outside newsfeed:

“Recent reports regarding the ongoing US dockworkers’ strike highlight their demands for a substantial wage increase and their apprehensions about automation. The strike, involving workers represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, stems from demands for a 62% wage increase over six years amid significant profits reported by shipping companies. In related developments, the International Longshoremen’s Association has reached a tentative agreement on wage increases, though concerns about automation persist. Separately, the Teamsters union is calling on Amazon to negotiate bargaining dates following a strike over poor working conditions and low pay, also spotlighting automation concerns. These disputes underscore the broader tension between labor unions and industry leaders over wages and technological advancements at port facilities.”

Fact-checking news summary: Based on the provided summary, here are specific facts stated, along with assessments of their correctness and relevance to the question of the probability of a strike in Q1 2025:

1. **Fact:** The ongoing US dockworkers’ strike highlights demands for a substantial wage increase.
– **Correct (True/False):** True. The summary indicates a wage increase demand as a core issue in the strike.
– **Relevant (True/False):** True. Wage negotiation impacts the likelihood of resolving disputes, affecting the probability of a strike.

2. **Fact:** The dockworkers are apprehensive about automation.
– **Correct (True/False):** True. The summary states apprehensions about automation among dockworkers.
– **Relevant (True/False):** True. Apprehensions about automation could hinder settlement, affecting strike probability.

3. **Fact:** The ongoing strike involves workers represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU).
– **Correct (True/False):** True. The ILWU is indeed representing the workers involved in the strike.
– **Relevant (True/False):** True. Representation is crucial to negotiations and the potential resolution timeline.

4. **Fact:** Demand for a 62% wage increase over six years is involved in the strike.
– **Correct (True/False):** True. The summary specifies a demand for a 62% increase.
– **Relevant (True/False):** True. The magnitude of the demand impacts negotiation complexity and strike potential.

5. **Fact:** Shipping companies have reported significant profits.
– **Correct (True/False):** True. Significant profits are often cited during wage disputes and noted in the summary.
– **Relevant (True/False):** True. Profits can influence union bargaining power and stakeholders’ responses, affecting strike likelihood.

6. **Fact:** The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has reached a tentative agreement on wage increases.
– **Correct (True/False):** True. The summary cites an agreement on wage increases.
– **Relevant (True/False):** False. The agreement pertains to the ILA, not the ILWU, making it indirectly relevant to the ILWU dispute.

7. **Fact:** Concerns about automation persist, even with the ILA’s tentative agreement.
– **Correct (True/False):** True. The summary mentions ongoing automation concerns.
– **Relevant (True/False):** False. Usually, the relevance pertains more to ILWU’s situation unless specifically related issues are shared.

8. **Fact:** The Teamsters union is calling on Amazon to negotiate bargaining dates following a strike about poor working conditions and low pay.
– **Correct (True/False):** True. The summary describes the Teamsters’ actions and strike topic.
– **Relevant (True/False):** False. This fact pertains to a separate industry and does not directly impact the dockworkers’ strike’s likelihood.

9. **Fact:** Automation concerns are spotlighted in disputes involving unions.
– **Correct (True/False):** True. The summary indicates broader labor concerns about technology.
– **Relevant (True/False):** True. Automation concerns can broadly relate to the likelihood of strikes due to unresolved issues.

This breakdown of facts highlights the key elements relevant to the initial question about the probability of a strike in Q1 2025, centering primarily on the wage negotiations and automation apprehensions in the ILWU context.

Fact-checked summary: The ongoing US dockworkers’ strike involves demands for a substantial wage increase, specifically a 62% rise over six years, with workers represented by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU). The dockworkers are also apprehensive about automation, which could complicate negotiations and settlements, thereby affecting the probability of a strike in Q1 2025. Shipping companies have reported significant profits, which could influence the union’s bargaining power and the overall dynamics of the wage dispute. These factors collectively highlight the potential challenges in resolving the conflict and underscore the uncertainties surrounding the possibility of a strike.

OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.4. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:

The base rate considers past dockworker strikes and labor disputes where a substantial wage increase was demanded. Labor disputes that result in strikes often feature unresolved bargaining over wage demands and concerns over automation. Considering the shipping companies’ profitability, the union’s strong demands for wage increases, and their concerns about automation, there is a significant chance that negotiations could stall, especially considering the time constraint before Q1 2025.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Factors that could lead to a resolution without a strike include increased concessions by the shipping companies given their profitability, which could appease the ILWU’s demands, particularly around automation concerns. Additionally, any legislative changes or external pressures influencing either party could speed up negotiations. If the shipping companies offer a compromise on wage increases close to the union’s demands, it may also lead to an agreement.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the shipping companies fail to reach an agreement on the wage increase. Likelihood: Likely.
– No significant automation concessions are made by the shipping companies that satisfy the dockworkers’ apprehensions. Likelihood: About as likely as not.
– The union members vote in favor of a strike due to unresolved issues. Likelihood: About as likely as not.

Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)

Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.6
Base rate: 0.4 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.12
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.64
Reverse Mellers: 0.57
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.04
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.57

We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows: The likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025 is influenced by ongoing negotiations between the ILWU and shipping companies, focusing on unresolved issues such as substantial wage demands and automation concerns. While the union seeks a 62% wage increase over six years and seeks to address automation apprehensions, the substantial profits reported by shipping companies could embolden union demands but also offer room for potential concessions. Historical precedents suggest a moderate base rate for strikes; however, recent agreements on salary increases and the willingness of shipping companies to negotiate could lead to a resolution without a strike. There are also external factors, such as government intervention or supply chain pressures, which could facilitate compromise before the situation escalates to a strike. Nonetheless, the limited timeframe before Q1 2025 negotiations adds to the uncertainty, and significant shifts in positions or external interventions could alter the strike’s likelihood.

How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?

Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today,
* less than 172: 19.05%
* between 172 and 205: 33.33%
* between 206 and 240: 33.33%
* more than 240: 14.29%

Obtaining outside newsfeed.  Summarizing outside newsfeed:

“Recent news articles highlight developments related to the Conservative Party in Canada and Quebec, with complexities in both national and regional political arenas. At the federal level, the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre is gaining traction, with an upcoming election anticipated to be pivotal in shaping Canada’s parliamentary future amidst ongoing dysfunction. Meanwhile, in Quebec, Conservative Party leader Éric Duhaime is contemplating a run in the Arthabaska by-election despite recent health issues. Polls suggest a competitive race, with the Parti Québécois currently leading. The Quebec Conservative Party shows potential electoral influence as Duhaime plans his strategic recovery and future candidacy efforts in the lead-up to the 2025 election year.”

Fact-checking news summary: Here are the specific facts stated in the summary:

1. **The Conservative Party in Canada is gaining traction, with an upcoming election anticipated to be pivotal.**
– **Correctness**: True. The Conservative Party of Canada, under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, has been gaining attention and momentum as of recent reports, though specifics can vary.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. The performance and traction of the Conservative Party are relevant to predicting how many seats they might win in a future election.

2. **The election is expected to be pivotal in shaping Canada’s parliamentary future amidst ongoing dysfunction.**
– **Correctness**: True, although the term ‘dysfunction’ might be subjective, there is an expectation that upcoming elections will have significant impacts on Canada’s parliamentary direction.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: True. The pivotal nature of the election can influence the number of seats won by each party.

3. **Éric Duhaime, leader of the Quebec Conservative Party, is contemplating a run in the Arthabaska by-election despite recent health issues.**
– **Correctness**: This fact is contextually plausible and matches recent activities reported about Éric Duhaime, barring any updates.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. Éric Duhaime’s actions pertain to the Quebec Conservative Party, which is separate from the federal Conservative Party of Canada, and thus not directly relevant to federal seat outcomes.

4. **Polls suggest a competitive race in Quebec, with the Parti Québécois currently leading.**
– **Correctness**: True. Polls often indicate fluctuating dynamics, and the Parti Québécois’ lead is plausible based on regional political variations.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. This pertains to provincial politics in Quebec rather than the federal Conservative Party’s seat count.

5. **The Quebec Conservative Party shows potential electoral influence as Duhaime plans his strategic recovery and future candidacy efforts in the lead-up to the 2025 election year.**
– **Correctness**: True. The Quebec Conservative Party is making plans under Duhaime’s leadership for future elections.
– **Relevance to Outcome**: False. This relates to provincial election strategies and does not directly impact the federal parliamentary elections.

Overall, only the facts directly related to the national Conservative Party’s influence and the nature of the upcoming federal election are relevant to predicting the number of seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election.

Fact-checked summary: The Conservative Party of Canada is currently gaining traction under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre, which is important in considering their potential performance in the upcoming federal parliamentary election. This election is expected to be pivotal for Canada’s parliamentary future, signifying that it could significantly affect the distribution of seats among the parties, including the Conservative Party. These two factors—the party’s increasing momentum and the critical nature of the forthcoming election—are essential in assessing how many seats the Conservative Party might secure in the next election.

Querying Perplexity (Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.2, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value (not submitted):
* less than 172: 0.1905
* between 172 and 205: 0.3333
* between 206 and 240: 0.3333
* more than 240: 0.1429

We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:

The reasoning across the summaries highlights a few key points: The Conservative Party of Canada, under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, appears to be gaining momentum, which bolsters their prospects for a strong showing in the next federal parliamentary election. This optimism is based on current polling, the historical performance of the party, particularly in supportive regions like Western Canada and rural areas, and a general dissatisfaction with the Liberal government. It is predicted that the Conservatives could secure between 172 and 240 seats, although achieving the higher end of this range would require substantial gains in urban and suburban areas traditionally held by the Liberals. However, the prediction is subject to uncertainties, as political dynamics can shift drastically due to unforeseen events, changing public opinions, or inaccuracies in polling data.

Runtime: 332 seconds for all forecasts on this page

Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts

Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports 

Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).