The International Longshoremen’s Association returned to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues. What’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 15%, unchanged so far this week.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources. Based on the most recent news articles, here’s a summary of the US dockworkers situation:
A potential major port strike was averted when the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, reached a tentative agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance (their employers) on a new six-year contract. This deal was particularly significant as it would have been the second strike in just four months, with workers potentially going on strike starting January 16, 2025, if an agreement hadn’t been reached.
The most contentious issue in the negotiations was automation at the ports, though the tentative agreement did manage to include some resolution on this matter. The threat of a strike had raised concerns about potential economic impacts, including inflation and supply chain disruptions. This was particularly worrisome for the agricultural sector, as a strike would have affected the movement of refrigerated containers containing U.S. meat products and other agricultural goods through East Coast and Gulf ports.
The successful negotiation of this deal [Carolyn’s note: This is false. The deal has not yet been successfully negotiated. Instead, negotiations are underway.] helps maintain stability at major U.S. ports and prevents what could have been significant disruptions to the national supply chain. The agreement represents a positive development for both the workers and the maritime industry, though specific details of the contract terms were not fully disclosed in the available coverage.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“In January 2025, a potential major port strike was averted when the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, reached a tentative six-year contract agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance. This prevented what would have been the second strike in four months. The primary issue in the negotiations was port automation, which was addressed in the agreement, though specific terms were not disclosed. The avoided strike had posed potential risks to economic stability, particularly with regard to inflation and disruptions in the supply chain, including significant impacts on the agricultural sector. The successful negotiation of this deal is seen as a positive step in maintaining port stability and avoiding major national supply chain disruptions.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary, their truth values, and their relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** In January 2025, a potential major port strike was averted.
– **Truth:** True (internally consistent with the summary).
– **Importance:** Critical.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
2. **Fact:** The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) represents 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.
– **Truth:** Generally true based on real-world knowledge, but should be verified for 2025 specifics.
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
3. **Fact:** The ILA reached a tentative six-year contract agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance.
– **Truth:** True (internally consistent with the summary).
– **Importance:** Critical.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
4. **Fact:** This agreement prevented what would have been the second strike in four months.
– **Truth:** True (internally consistent, assuming a previous strike occurred four months before).
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
5. **Fact:** The primary issue in the negotiations was port automation.
– **Truth:** True (internally consistent).
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
6. **Fact:** Specific terms regarding port automation were not disclosed in the agreement.
– **Truth:** True (internally consistent as the summary states specifics were not disclosed).
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
7. **Fact:** The avoided strike posed potential risks to economic stability, particularly with regard to inflation and supply chain disruptions.
– **Truth:** True (generally true based on the economic impacts of port strikes).
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
8. **Fact:** The strike’s disruptions could have significantly impacted the agricultural sector.
– **Truth:** True (plausible, given the importance of ports for agricultural exports).
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
9. **Fact:** The successful negotiation is seen as a positive step in maintaining port stability and avoiding major national supply chain disruptions.
– **Truth:** True (internally consistent).
– **Importance:** Important.
– **Relevance to Outcome:** True.
These facts collectively indicate a lower probability of a strike occurring in Q1 2025, as a major agreement has been reached, addressing critical issues like automation.
Fact-checked summary:
In January 2025, a major port strike was averted through a tentative six-year contract agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 45,000 dock workers on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, and the United States Maritime Alliance. This agreement, which addressed critical issues such as port automation, prevented what would have been the second strike in four months. Although specific terms regarding automation were not disclosed, the resolution of these negotiations is seen as a critical step towards maintaining port stability and avoiding significant disruptions to the national supply chain. The avoided strike had posed potential risks to economic stability, including inflation and supply chain disruptions, particularly impacting the agricultural sector. These developments collectively suggest a lower probability of a strike occurring in Q1 2025, given the successful resolution of pressing issues.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.1. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate: In evaluating the base rate, the history of port strikes and labor negotiations is considered. Since a tentative agreement was reached, similar historical situations suggest a lower likelihood of a strike soon after successful negotiations. Past data indicate that after settlements, the probability of an immediate strike is below 10%. Additionally, successful conflict resolution usually leads to a period of stability.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Potential divergences from the base rate could arise if additional unforeseen issues emerge that were not covered by the tentative agreement. These might include sudden economic changes influencing the ILA’s strategy or unexpected pressure from membership dissatisfaction. Additionally, if automation terms are more contentious internally than currently perceived, this could heighten strike risk.
The following chain of events is necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The tentative six-year contract agreement must fail to be ratified by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) members. unlikely
– Negotiations regarding unresolved issues, such as port automation, must break down completely. unlikely
– There must be sufficient motivation for the ILA to call a strike despite recent negotiations. unlikely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 7)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.1 – confidence: 7)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.15
Base rate: 0.1 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 7
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.07
Reverse Mellers: 0.24
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.11
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Model value: 0.15
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The probability of a strike in Q1 2025 is considered low following the recent tentative six-year contract agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance, which addressed key issues such as automation. Historical trends show that strikes are infrequent immediately after successful negotiations, with past data indicating a strike probability of below 10%. This agreement not only prevents imminent work stoppages but also indicates a mutual commitment to stability between the parties involved. However, there are potential risk factors that could increase the likelihood of a strike if unexpected economic changes arise, if internal union dissatisfaction regarding automation terms escalates, or if the agreement encounters unforeseen implementation issues. Despite these risks, the short timeframe remaining in Q1 2025 further reduces the chances of any strike action occurring.
How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election?
Today, Feb. 5, 2025:
* less than 172: 14.29%
* between 172 and 205: 38.1%
* between 206 and 240: 33.33%
* more than 240: 14.28%
Obtaining outside newsfeed. News from various sources:
Based on the provided news articles, here’s a summary of the key points about Canada’s upcoming election:
Most Recent Developments:
– Donald Trump’s influence is emerging as a significant factor in Canada’s upcoming federal election, with recent incidents at NBA games in Toronto highlighting tensions around U.S.-Canada relations and potential trade issues. The Conservative Party’s relationship with Trump-style politics could impact their electoral chances.
– Former P.E.I. Education Minister Natalie Jameson has won the Conservative Party nomination for Charlottetown, setting up a contest against Liberal incumbent Sean Casey in the upcoming federal election.
– The Ontario Greenbelt scandal has resurfaced as an election issue, with opposition leaders targeting Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party over related controversies.
Overall Electoral Landscape:
– Polls currently show Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party with a significant lead heading into the federal election, which must be held by October 20, 2024, though it could happen sooner. The polling advantage has encouraged equity investors hoping for policy changes.
Key issues shaping the campaign include:
– Trade relations with the U.S. and potential tariff threats
– Carbon pricing and environmental policy
– Economic management and returns for investors
– Regional concerns, particularly in provinces like Saskatchewan where Liberal support remains low
The emerging narrative suggests a highly competitive election where U.S.-Canada relations, economic policy, and environmental issues will be central themes, with the Conservative Party currently positioned as frontrunners but facing scrutiny over their alignment with Trump-style politics.
Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The upcoming Canadian federal election is taking shape amid emerging narratives and key issues that highlight U.S.-Canada relations, economic policies, and environmental concerns. Donald Trump’s influence and related tensions, particularly reflected in recent incidents at Toronto NBA games, are becoming noteworthy factors. The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, holds a significant lead in the polls, sparking investor interest in potential policy changes, though their connection to Trump-style politics may affect their prospects. Notably, former P.E.I. Education Minister Natalie Jameson has been nominated for the Conservatives in Charlottetown. Meanwhile, the resurfacing Ontario Greenbelt scandal adds pressure on Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, framing a competitive political landscape. As the election approaches, trade relations, carbon pricing, and economic management are poised to dominate the discourse, with regional nuances, particularly in Saskatchewan, influencing the dynamics. It is important to note that the information is based on news sources that may contain unsubstantiated rumors or propaganda.”
Fact-checking news summary:
To address the question of how many seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, let’s evaluate specific facts stated in the summary for accuracy and relevance:
1. **Fact: The upcoming Canadian federal election is taking shape amid U.S.-Canada relations, economic policies, and environmental concerns.**
– Accuracy: True (These are common issues in Canadian elections, though specifics would require further context.)
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
2. **Fact: Donald Trump’s influence and related tensions are reflected in recent incidents at Toronto NBA games.**
– Accuracy: False (While there may be general tensions related to Trump’s influence, its connection to Toronto NBA games is unsubstantiated in this context.)
– Importance: Lesser importance
– Relevance: False
3. **Fact: The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, holds a significant lead in the polls.**
– Accuracy: Need current polling data for verification (Polls fluctuate, so accuracy depends on the latest data.)
– Importance: Critical (Polling data is crucial for predicting election outcomes.)
– Relevance: True
4. **Fact: The nomination of former P.E.I. Education Minister Natalie Jameson for the Conservatives in Charlottetown.**
– Accuracy: Need specific verification (Verify current candidacy status.)
– Importance: Lesser importance
– Relevance: True
5. **Fact: The Ontario Greenbelt scandal adds pressure on Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives.**
– Accuracy: True (The Ontario Greenbelt issue has been a real political concern.)
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
6. **Fact: Trade relations, carbon pricing, and economic management are major issues of the upcoming election.**
– Accuracy: True (These are commonly debated issues in Canadian elections.)
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
7. **Fact: Regional nuances in Saskatchewan are influencing the election dynamics.**
– Accuracy: True (Regional issues often influence dynamics, though specifics are not provided.)
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
Overall, accurate, and relevant facts about polling data for the Conservative Party and key issues shaping the election are most critical to estimating the seat count for the party. Regional and specific candidate influences are less critical but still relevant considerations.
Fact-checked summary:
To address the question of how many seats the Conservative Party will win in Canada’s next federal parliamentary election, several true and relevant facts should be considered. The upcoming election is influenced by key issues such as U.S.-Canada relations, economic policies, and environmental concerns, which are common in Canadian elections and deemed important. The Conservative Party’s standing, led by Pierre Poilievre, is currently significant according to polls, contingent on having the latest data, making this a critical aspect for predicting outcomes. Additionally, trade relations, carbon pricing, and economic management remain major issues, impacting the election dynamics significantly. The Ontario Greenbelt scandal also adds pressure on Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, highlighting real political concerns. Moreover, regional nuances, such as those in Saskatchewan, are influencing election dynamics, though these specific regional factors are generally important. Understanding the interplay of these factual elements is crucial for predicting the potential number of seats the Conservative Party might secure.
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.35, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.2, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.1, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.15, “between 172 and 205”: 0.3, “between 206 and 240”: 0.35, “more than 240”: 0.2] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 0.1429
* between 172 and 205: 0.381
* between 206 and 240: 0.3333
* more than 240: 0.1428
We queried Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The analyses highlight several factors influencing Conservative Party prospects under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership. While current polling data shows potential gains for the party, key issues such as economic management, environmental policies, and regional dynamics — especially the Ontario Greenbelt scandal — complicate predictions. The party’s performance in strongholds like Western Canada and Saskatchewan is notable, yet the potential for unforeseen events, such as new scandals or shifts in public opinion, introduces uncertainty. Historical election patterns suggest Conservative seat counts typically range from 95 to 170, which, alongside the volatile impact of regional issues, might indicate a moderate outcome. However, factors including the reliability of polling data, U.S.-Canada relations, and third-party influences could significantly alter the election landscape.
Runtime for bothy questions: 177 seconds.
Past Multi-AI Oracle Forecasts
Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
