Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts 45%
This question is a side competition with the RAND Forecasting Initiative’s forecasting of this question. Their consensus forecast today—>
10–13 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Pakistan India hostilities 2025
News from various sources:
In 2025, hostilities between India and Pakistan escalated into a significant conflict labeled “Operation Sindoor.” The operation began after a terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians. In response, India launched strikes targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-controlled territories, resulting in intense clashes from May 7 to May 10, 2025.
Key Developments:
– The conflict resulted in a substantial military engagement known as Operation Sindoor, with claims from both sides of aircraft losses and casualties. India reportedly suffered losses, including Rafale jets, though these claims were officially contested and initially denied.
– The operation reportedly ended after four days with an informal ceasefire, heavily debated in international narratives. Former US President Donald Trump claimed credit for brokering peace between the countries by leveraging trade negotiations, asserting he prevented a nuclear escalation. However, these claims have been met with skepticism and calls for a response from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi by Indian political figures including Congress leader Jairam Ramesh.
– Evidence suggested coordination between China and Pakistan, with Beijing allegedly providing active military support to Pakistan during the hostilities, using them as an opportunity to test weapon systems.
– There was a disinformation campaign targeting the reputation of the French-made Rafale jets, reportedly orchestrated by China to promote its military aircraft over Western options.
Critically, analysts highlighted the complexity of the military engagement and noted the political and technological implications. The incident underscores the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the role of international actors in South Asian regional conflicts. India’s strategic response and the subsequent political discourse continue to be pivotal in the aftermath of these events.
Fact-checking news summary:
Let’s analyze the summary and extract specific facts. We will evaluate each fact for correctness, importance to the resolution of the question, and relevance to the outcome.
1. **Fact**: Hostilities between India and Pakistan in 2025 escalated into a significant conflict called “Operation Sindoor”.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, but requires external verification. [Assume True, unless otherwise substantiated]
– **Importance**: Critical (It establishes the basis for potential casualties).
– **Relevance**: True.
2. **Fact**: The conflict resulted from a terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent but needs external verification. [Assume True, unless otherwise substantiated]
– **Importance**: Important (It establishes the cause of the hostilities).
– **Relevance**: True.
3. **Fact**: India launched strikes targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-controlled territories from May 7 to May 10, 2025.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent, but requires external verification. [Assume True, unless otherwise substantiated]
– **Importance**: Important (Indicates the timeframe of active conflict).
– **Relevance**: True.
4. **Fact**: There were claims from both sides of aircraft losses and casualties, with India reportedly losing Rafale jets.
– **Correctness**: Internally seems plausible but requires external verification. [Assume True, unless otherwise substantiated]
– **Importance**: Critical (Directly relevant to assessing uniformed casualties).
– **Relevance**: True.
5. **Fact**: The operation reportedly ended after four days with an informal ceasefire.
– **Correctness**: Internally consistent but needs external verification. [Assume True, unless otherwise substantiated]
– **Importance**: Less Important (Specifies timeline but not directly casualties).
– **Relevance**: True.
6. **Fact**: Former US President Donald Trump claimed credit for brokering peace to prevent a nuclear escalation. (Carolyn‘s note: Trump is the current US President.)
– **Correctness**: Internally plausible, but contested claims. Requires external verification. [Assume Debatable/False]
– **Importance**: Unimportant (Does not directly affect casualty numbers).
– **Relevance**: False.
7. **Fact**: Evidence suggested coordination between China and Pakistan, with China allegedly providing support during the hostilities.
– **Correctness**: Internally plausible, speculative. Needs external verification. [Assume Debatable/True]
– **Importance**: Less Important (Contextual but not direct impact on hostilities).
– **Relevance**: False.
8. **Fact**: There was a disinformation campaign targeting the reputation of French-made Rafale jets.
– **Correctness**: Internally plausible, requires external verification. [Assume Debatable/True]
– **Importance**: Unimportant (Related to military procurement context).
– **Relevance**: False.
9. **Fact**: Analysts highlighted the complexity of the military engagement and political implications.
– **Correctness**: Internally plausible, but requires expert verification. [Assume True]
– **Importance**: Important (Provides broader context and potential ramifications).
– **Relevance**: True.
The resolution of the original question “Will hostilities result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties with at least one death?” hinges critically on Fact 1 (existence of conflict labeled “Operation Sindoor”) and Fact 4 (details of military engagement and casualties). Other facts are either contextual or have indirect impacts on the question’s outcome.
Fact-checked summary:
In 2025, hostilities between India and Pakistan escalated into a significant conflict known as “Operation Sindoor,” which is critical in establishing the basis for potential uniformed casualties. India launched strikes targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-controlled territories from May 7 to May 10, 2025, a period of active conflict important to understanding the hostilities’ timeframe. Claims from both sides indicated aircraft losses and casualties during the conflict, with India reportedly losing Rafale jets. This information is directly relevant to assessing uniformed casualties, which is crucial for determining the resolution of the original question regarding the number of casualties. Analysts also highlighted the complexity of the military engagement and its political implications, adding broader context and potential ramifications to the situation.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 30%
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Past conflicts between India and Pakistan, 40%
Duration and intensity of previous military engagements, 30%
International diplomatic interventions, 30%
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the base rate of 0.3 from historical conflicts, adjust based on current conflict severity and duration. Increase probability due to high-intensity engagements and aircraft losses reported. Final Bayesian probability = 0.3 (initial) + 0.05 (adjustment for intensity) + 0.05 (additional duration factor)
Bayesian base rate: 40%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 30
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by reviewing past conflicts between India and Pakistan, focusing on size, scope, and casualties. Given the historical data on military engagements and recent reports of aircraft losses, there’s a reasonable probability of significant casualties.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Ideally, I would need access to real-time intelligence reports and verified casualty figures from both sides. Additionally, more information on diplomatic talks or peace interventions could inform the likelihood of continued conflict.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential de-escalation driven by international diplomatic efforts could significantly decrease the likelihood of prolonged conflict and resulting casualties. Alternatively, internal political pressures could encourage a return to hostilities.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Operation Sindoor results in prolonged military conflict between India and Pakistan. (High likelihood)
– Significant uniformed casualties are reported by both India and Pakistan. (High likelihood)
– Continued escalations and periodic aerial strikes occur outside the initial May 7-10, 2025, timeframe. (Moderate likelihood)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 4)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.55 – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.45 – confidence: 5)
Question Type: Binary
Median from LLMs: 0.45
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.12
MAPD: 0.2
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.43
Reverse Mellers: 0.47
Theory of Mind: 0 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.11
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value: 45%
The various AI analyses predict a risk of further conflict between India and Pakistan, based on historical conflict patterns and recent events such as ‘Operation Sindoor’ in May 2025, which involved aircraft losses and casualties. The remaining timeframe until the end of September 2025 offers opportunities for escalation. Despite elevated tensions, factors such as typical post-conflict de-escalation patterns, potential diplomatic interventions, and internal political pressures could temper hostilities. The AI predictions have varying confidence levels due to uncertainties in the reliability of news reports and potential for both overstated and understated casualty figures. Additionally, the threshold of 100 uniformed casualties poses a high bar, influenced by international and economic pressures which may also deter large-scale hostilities.
Runtime: 207 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy’s bots —>
Source: https://kashmir.liveuamap.com/
