How many state-based conflict deaths in Syria will be reported by ACLED for the month of July, 2025?
Here’s what Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:
Considering the current intensity, remaining days in July, and the key assumptions outlined above, I assess the probabilities as follows:
Less than 100: 1%
Between 100 and 250: 3%
Between 250 and 500: 9%
Between 500 and 1000: 32%
Greater than 1000: 55%
10–12 minutes read
Perplexity response:
{think}
**Key Sources Overview**
1. **Syria: Security Situation (July 2025)**
UK government briefing detailing conflicts between Syrian National Army (SNA) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). As of December 2024–March 2025, 423 deaths (41 civilian) linked to SNA-SDF clashes. A March 2025 ceasefire between SDF and Syrian state aimed to reduce violence, with integration agreements[1].
2. **Syria After Assad (July 2025)**
UK Parliament analysis post-Assad regime collapse (December 2024). Reports >571 deaths (civilians + combatants) during initial opposition offensives, with 1.1 million displaced by December 2024[2].
3. **Israel’s Regional Warfare (July 2025)**
NGO report: Israel’s July 2025 attacks in Southern Syria caused imprisonments and casualties. Syrian conflict deaths reported as 146 regionwide, though specifics on state-based conflict are limited[3].
4. **Kurds and Kurdish Areas (July 2025)**
Post-Assad regime analysis: Opposition groups (HTS-led) seized Damascus and other cities in December 2024, with limited resistance. No direct July 2025 death tolls cited[4].
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**Relevant Data for July 2025 Forecast**
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**Forensic Analysis**
1. **Pre-Ceasefire Clashes**: SNA-SDF conflicts averaged ~105 deaths/month (Dec 12, 2024–Mar 11, 2025)[1]. Post-March ceasefire could reduce this rate.
2. **Post-Assad Dynamics**: December 2024 offensives caused >571 deaths in one week[2], but regime collapse may shift conflict dynamics.
3. **Israeli Involvement**: July 2025 data shows 146 deaths in Syria (up to July 15), concentrated in South Syria and Israeli airstrikes[3]. ACLED’s state-based categories likely include these.
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**July 2025 Trajectory**
– **Lower Expectation**: If SDF-SDF clashes meet ceasefire compliance, state-based deaths may drop below prior monthly rates (~100).
– **Midpoint Scenario**: Continued Israeli operations and residual SDF-SDF skirmishes could sustain 250-500 deaths.
– **Upper Risk**: Escalation in Southern Syria (evidenced by imprisonments[3]) might push totals higher.
**Resolution Guideline**: ACLED’s methodology aggregates state actor conflicts. Given the March ceasefire and ongoing crossborder attacks, **Between 250 and 500** aligns with projected rates from herein cited sources.
Grok response:
### List of 10 Citations
1. **Title:** Southern Syria clashes (July 2025–present) – Wikipedia
**Description:** A Wikipedia page detailing ongoing conflicts in southern Syria involving Druze and government forces.
**Date of Publication:** July 16, 2025.
**Summary:** The page describes clashes that began on July 13, 2025, between Druze militias and Bedouin groups in Suwayda, leading to government intervention and reported fatalities. It highlights how these events are part of post-civil war instability, with Israeli airstrikes adding to the violence. Estimates from the page suggest dozens of deaths in early July, though not fully quantified by ACLED.
2. **Title:** Updates: Israel attacks Syria as Gaza death toll surges past 80 since dawn | Israel-Palestine conflict News
**Description:** An Al Jazeera live blog covering recent military actions in Syria and related regional conflicts.
**Date of Publication:** July 16, 2025 (published 1 day ago).
**Summary:** The blog reports on Israeli airstrikes in Syria on July 16, 2025, amid escalating clashes in southern regions, potentially linked to state-based conflicts. It notes the involvement of Syrian government forces, with unconfirmed reports of civilian and combatant deaths from these incidents. Expert opinions from Al Jazeera analysts emphasize the risk of further escalation, drawing on ACLED’s tracking of similar events.
3. **Title:** Syria | Today’s latest from Al Jazeera
**Description:** Al Jazeera’s dedicated page for ongoing news and updates on Syria.
**Date of Publication:** July 17, 2025 (updated 12 hours ago).
**Summary:** The page covers recent violence in southern Syria, including clashes on July 15-16, 2025, involving government troops and local militias, with mentions of potential state-based deaths. It references ACLED data for context on conflict trends, noting an increase in events since early July. Analysts warn of rising tensions that could lead to higher death tolls based on historical patterns.
4. **Title:** Here’s what triggered the latest deadly violence in Syria, and why it matters
**Description:** A news article from The News-Herald explaining the causes and implications of recent Syrian clashes.
**Date of Publication:** July 16, 2025 (published 1 day ago).
**Summary:** The article details the July 13, 2025, escalation in Suwayda between Druze groups and government forces, reporting initial deaths from state-backed operations. It cites ACLED’s monitoring of such events, estimating dozens of conflict-related fatalities in the region so far in July. Experts argue this reflects ongoing instability post-Assad regime collapse, potentially mirroring earlier 2025 spikes.
5. **Title:** Clashes Escalate in Syria
**Description:** A Council on Foreign Relations article summarizing top agenda items on Syrian conflicts.
**Date of Publication:** July 16, 2025 (published 1 day ago).
**Summary:** The piece discusses renewed fighting in southern Syria starting July 13, 2025, involving Syrian armed forces and militias, with reports of casualties from state-based engagements. It references ACLED’s data for context, noting that July’s events could exceed previous months’ totals. CFR experts highlight the role of external actors, suggesting this could signal a broader trend of violence.
6. **Title:** Israel Strikes Syria’s Capital, Sending Warning to Government
**Description:** A New York Times article on Israeli military actions and their impact on Syrian stability.
**Date of Publication:** July 16, 2025 (published 1 day ago).
**Summary:** The article covers airstrikes on July 16, 2025, amid clashes in Sweida, linking them to state-based conflicts and potential deaths. It draws on ACLED’s tracking to note an uptick in violence since early July, with preliminary estimates of fatalities from government responses. Analysts from the Times emphasize the fragility of Syria’s postwar order, warning of rapid escalations.
7. **Title:** Why is Israel striking Syria? All we need to know about the conflict
**Description:** An Indian Express piece analyzing the drivers behind recent Syrian conflicts.
**Date of Publication:** July 17, 2025 (published 6 hours ago).
**Summary:** The article examines bloody clashes in Sweida from July 13, 2025, involving Syrian forces, and reports associated deaths in state-based violence. It references ACLED’s data for July trends, indicating possible dozens of fatalities so far. Expert opinions stress the interconnectedness of regional actors, suggesting ongoing risks based on historical data.
8. **Title:** Reuters Syria News
**Description:** Reuters’ ongoing coverage of developments in Syria.
**Date of Publication:** July 15, 2025 (published 2 days ago).
**Summary:** The news feed reports on escalating clashes in southern Syria since July 13, 2025, with mentions of state-involved fatalities. It incorporates ACLED’s monitoring, noting an increase in conflict events compared to June 2025. Reuters analysts provide insights on the potential for higher death tolls, citing patterns from earlier in the year.
9. **Title:** Middle East Overview: July 2025
**Description:** An ACLED report summarizing regional conflict trends.
**Date of Publication:** July 4, 2025.
**Summary:** The overview flags ongoing violence in Syria as part of broader Middle East instability, with early July data showing rising state-based conflict events. It reports preliminary figures of over 100 potential deaths from such conflicts in Syria for the first week of July, based on tracked incidents. ACLED experts warn of escalation risks, using historical data to contextualize current trends.
10. **Title:** Southern Syria clashes (April–May 2025) – Wikipedia
**Description:** A Wikipedia page providing historical context on earlier Syrian conflicts.
**Date of Publication:** July 16, 2025 (last updated).
**Summary:** The page details clashes in April and May 2025 that continued into July, involving state actors and resulting in reported deaths. It links to ACLED’s data for verification, noting similarities to current events with potential carryover effects. While focused on earlier months, it provides baseline statistics for comparison, such as hundreds of deaths in state-based violence earlier in the year.
AskNews Deep Search Response:
Based on the latest available reports up to July 17, 2025, here is the most relevant ACLED-related conflict data for Syria:
1. EU Shocked by Sweida Violence (2025-07-17): Reports 240+ deaths since July 13 with Israeli military interventions in Damascus and Sweida. Violent clashes between Druze militias, Bedouin tribes, and Syrian government forces. EU calls for ceasefire but conflict remains active. [Covers recent escalation]
2. Damascus Airstrikes (2025-07-16): Reports 300+ deaths in Sweida since July 13. Documents executions by government forces (27 civilians) and Israeli tank strikes. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) cited. [Key death toll estimate]
3. SNHR Preliminary Data (2025-07-16): 169 confirmed deaths with ongoing verification. Highlights Israeli involvement and extrajudicial killings. [Conservative baseline estimate]
4. Death Toll Analysis (2025-07-16): 248 total deaths (92 Druze civilians, 138 government soldiers, 18 Bedouin fighters). Documents proxy conflict dynamics with Israeli involvement.
Considering the current intensity, remaining days in July, and the key assumptions outlined above, I assess the probabilities as follows:
Less than 100: 1%
Between 100 and 250: 3%
Between 250 and 500: 9%
Between 500 and 1000: 32%
Greater than 1000: 55%
Detailed version of this forecast here —>
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Syria in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment with VIEWS.
