Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? Botmaster Phil Godzin’s forecast of July 30, 2025

Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of July 2025?

Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai bot predicts today: 3%

11–14 minutes read (Carolyn’s note: This is a condensed version of pgodzinai’s results. Full rationale here —>)

Perplexity response:
{think}

### **Key Developments & Sources**
1. **Netanyahu Considers Annexation of Gaza Territories**
*Source:* ABC News (July 29, 2025)
Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is weighing annexation of Gaza territories as a response to stalled ceasefire talks, with “alternative options” under consideration to retrieve hostages and end Hamas’s rule. Hamas accused Israel and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff of negotiating in bad faith, claiming progress in prior rounds before talks collapsed[1].
2. **UK Plan Ties Palestinian Recognition to Ceasefire & Hostage Releases**
*Source:* Politico Europe (July 29, 2025)
The UK is exploring a path to recognize Palestinian statehood at the September UN General Assembly, contingent on a ceasefire and full hostage release. A proposed plan includes post-conflict governance arrangements (excluding Hamas) and humanitarian aid phases, signaling potential international pressure to revive talks[2].
3. **Israel Expands Military Pressure Amid Stalled Diplomacy**
*Source:* YouTube (July 28, 2025 transcript)
With talks stalled, Israel is intensifying military operations (e.g., demolishing Hamas tunnels) while maintaining minimal humanitarian aid. Netanyahu affirmed the war’s continuation, stating Israel is “winning” but not ready to end hostilities[3].

**Verdict**: A July 2025 ceasefire appears improbable given current hostilities, position rigidity, and unresolved hostage/free withdrawal disputes.

Grok response:

1.. **Title:** Hamas says Israel rejected ceasefire deal releasing all captives in Gaza
**Description:** An article from Al Jazeera reporting on Hamas’s accusations regarding Israel’s stance on a ceasefire proposal.
**Date of Publication:** July 18, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The piece reports Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida accusing Israel of rejecting a deal that would release all captives, emphasizing no return to partial agreements if negotiations fail. It underscores the complexities in mediation efforts involving Qatar and Egypt. The article reflects ongoing tensions, with Hamas prioritizing a full end to hostilities as a non-negotiable condition.
2. *. **Title:** US, Israel recall teams from Gaza ceasefire talks after Hamas proposal
**Description:** An Al Jazeera article covering the U.S. and Israel’s withdrawal from negotiations due to Hamas’s response.
**Date of Publication:** July 24, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This piece details U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff accusing Hamas of lacking desire for a ceasefire, leading to the recall of negotiation teams. It highlights Hamas’s proposed amendments, such as timelines for permanent ceasefires and withdrawals, which were deemed unacceptable. The article indicates a setback in talks, with experts warning that this could delay any agreement into August or beyond.
3. **Title:** Israel and the U.S. Pull Back From Cease-Fire Talks With Hamas
**Description:** A New York Times report on the suspension of negotiations and its implications.
**Date of Publication:** July 24, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article explains that the U.S. and Israel pulled back from talks after deeming Hamas’s proposals unworkable, with President Trump’s envoy exploring alternative options for hostage releases. It cites diplomatic sources indicating a lack of progress on core issues like troop presence and governance in Gaza. Analysts suggest this move reflects growing frustration, potentially hardening positions on both sides.
4 **Title:** U.S., Israel cut short Gaza ceasefire talks, accuse Hamas of bad faith
**Description:** A National Post article on the breakdown of negotiations and mutual accusations.
**Date of Publication:** July 24, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** The article covers the decision to cut short talks after Hamas’s response to a 60-day truce proposal, with Israel blaming Hamas for unreasonable demands. It details ongoing disputes over aid flows and control of areas post-ceasefire. Commentators warn that this impasse could lead to further escalation, based on statements from U.S. and Israeli officials.
5. **Title:** Trump on Hamas: ‘They want to die’
**Description:** A POLITICO piece quoting President Trump’s comments on Hamas during ceasefire discussions.
**Date of Publication:** July 25, 2025
**Three-Sentence Summary:** This article features President Trump’s remarks criticizing Hamas for not wanting a deal and prioritizing leverage through hostages, made amid stalled negotiations. It links his statements to broader U.S. efforts to facilitate a truce, though without concrete outcomes. Experts interpret these comments as reflecting U.S. frustration, potentially influencing diplomatic pressure on Hamas.

GPT News Summary:
1. **Military Activity**: The Jerusalem Post on July 29, 2025, reported an escalation in hostilities, with both sides engaging in significant retaliatory strikes. Despite this, anonymous sources within the Israeli government hint at backchannel communications focused on de-escalation, suggesting a potential softening in stance if the conditions are favorable.
3. **Statements from Leaders**: On July 29, 2025, The Times of Israel quoted an unnamed senior official indicating that the Israeli government remains open to a ceasefire, but only under “reasonable conditions” that ensure long-term security. Meanwhile, on July 30, 2025, statements from a Hamas spokesperson suggested a willingness to consider a ceasefire if Israel ceases its military operations immediately.
5. **Public Opinion**: A recent poll conducted by Haaretz and published on July 30, 2025, shows that a majority of the Israeli public supports a ceasefire to prevent further loss of life, though there is significant division regarding the terms under which this should occur.

Anthropic Binary response:
1. **Negotiations are currently stalled**: As of July 29-30, 2025, multiple sources indicate that ceasefire talks have broken down. The US and Israel have withdrawn from negotiations after deeming Hamas’s proposals “unworkable” (around July 24-25).
2. **Hardening positions**: Netanyahu is considering annexation of Gaza territories as an alternative to ceasefire, indicating a shift away from negotiated settlement. Hamas has accused Israel and US envoys of negotiating in bad faith.

## Time Constraints
Today is July 30, 2025, with the resolution date of August 1, 2025. This means there are only 2 days remaining in July for a ceasefire to be declared. This extremely short timeframe is critically important to my forecast.
## Base Rates and Historical Patterns
.
## Final Assessment
Based on the recent breakdown in talks, hardening positions, continued military operations, and extremely limited time remaining in July 2025, I assess that a ceasefire declaration is highly unlikely before August 1. However, I must account for:
– Limited visibility into secret negotiations
– Potential for sudden diplomatic breakthroughs
– Possible pressure from third parties (UK, Egypt, Qatar)
– The fluid nature of Middle East conflict dynamics
Weighing these factors and the time constraints heavily, I conclude that the probability of a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in the remaining days of July 2025 is very low.

Gemini Binary response:

The current date is July 30, 2025, and the resolution date is August 1, 2025. This means a ceasefire must be formally declared today, July 30, or tomorrow, July 31, to meet the criteria. The extremely narrow timeframe is a critical factor in this forecast. Analysis of recent information from multiple reputable sources, up to July 30, 2025, strongly indicates that a ceasefire declaration within this window is highly improbable.

1. **Stalled Negotiations and Mutual Accusations:** Multiple reports from late July consistently highlight a breakdown in ceasefire talks. On July 29, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu squarely blamed Hamas’s “obstinacy” for preventing a deal, stating that negotiations have been ongoing but Hamas remains uncooperative. Similarly, on July 24, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff accused Hamas of “a lack of desire to reach a ceasefire,” leading to the recall of negotiation teams by both the U.S. and Israel. Hamas, in turn, has accused Israel of blocking an agreement and has also withdrawn its delegation from Doha for discussions in Turkey, signaling a significant setback.
2. **Continuation of Military Operations and Hardline Stances:** Despite international pressure, Israel continues military operations. Netanyahu has affirmed the war’s continuation, with discussions reportedly underway about “alternative options,” including the annexation of parts of Gaza, if Hamas does not agree to terms. Israeli officials have also stated that demands for a permanent ceasefire are “a distorted campaign of international pressure” that “ain’t gonna happen.” Hamas, conversely, continues to push for a full Israeli withdrawal and an end to the conflict, which Israel has rejected.
3. **Extremely Short Timeframe:** With only today (July 30) and tomorrow (July 31) remaining in July, a formal declaration would require an immediate and unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough. All current and highly recent reporting points to the opposite, with negotiators having been recalled, public blaming, and stated positions remaining far apart.

Given the overwhelming evidence of stalemate, continued hostilities, and the extremely short remaining time in July, the probability of a formal ceasefire being declared is very low.
Probability: 1%

=== Reasoning ===

From the research assistants’ reports, I can gather several key points:
1. **Current status of negotiations**: Multiple sources indicate talks have stalled or broken down:
– U.S. and Israel recalled negotiation teams after deeming Hamas’s proposals “unworkable” (July 24-25)
– Netanyahu is considering annexation options rather than ceasefire (July 29)
– Hamas has accused Israel and U.S. envoy of bad faith negotiations
2. **Key barriers to agreement**:
– Fundamental disagreements on terms (permanent vs. partial ceasefire)
– Hamas demands full withdrawal and permanent ceasefire
– Israel insists on continuing military operations until security goals met
– Netanyahu stated the war “isn’t over” (July 28)
3. **External pressure**:
– UK proposal linking Palestinian recognition to ceasefire (contingent on full hostage release)
– UN preparing for conference on two-state solution (July 28), but acknowledging distant prospects
– Humanitarian crisis creating urgency but not yet forcing compromise

## Time Constraints and Precedent
With only July 31 remaining in the month, a ceasefire would need to be declared tomorrow to resolve positively. This is an extremely tight timeframe given:
1. The reported breakdown in talks as recently as July 24-25
2. The continuing hostile rhetoric from both sides through July 29
3. The lack of any reported active negotiations in the most recent days
4. Historical precedent of Middle East ceasefires typically requiring weeks or months of negotiations, especially when positions are entrenched

## Key Assumptions and Their Probabilities
1. **Assumption**: The reported breakdown in negotiations is accurate and current.
**Probability of being wrong**: 20% (Some backchannel negotiations could be occurring despite public statements)
2. **Assumption**: No significant external event will occur in the next 24 hours forcing an immediate ceasefire.
**Probability of being wrong**: 5% (Such events are rare but possible)
3. **Assumption**: The current positions of Hamas and Israel are too far apart to bridge in a single day.
**Probability of being wrong**: 15% (Compromise positions may be closer than publicly stated)
Even if we consider the possibility that some of these assumptions are wrong, the extremely short timeframe makes a ceasefire declaration highly unlikely.

## Final Assessment
Given:
– The stalled negotiations reported as recently as July 29
– The hardening of positions on both sides (Netanyahu considering annexation, Hamas demanding full withdrawal)
– Only 1 day remaining in July 2025
– No reports of active, promising negotiations in the most recent updates
– Historical precedent for ceasefire negotiations typically taking weeks or months
I assess that a ceasefire declaration between Israel and Hamas in July 2025 is highly unlikely. The combination of entrenched positions, recent breakdown in talks, and extremely limited time remaining makes this event very improbable.

Accounting for some uncertainty in my assumptions, I estimate:
Probability: 3%