How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in August 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
* Less than 500: 3%
* Between 500 and 1,000: 10%
* Between 1,000 and 1,500: 23%
* Between 1,500 and 2,000: 30%
* Greater than 2,000: 34%
12–15 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Ukraine conflict deaths July 2025.
News from various sources:
The extracted web content primarily focuses on the conflict in Ukraine and provides data on casualties as of August 2025.
**Key Points:**
1. **Civilian Casualties:**
– July 2025 experienced the highest civilian casualties in Ukraine since May 2022, with 286 killed and 1,388 injured.
– This totals a three-year high in casualty figures, verified across 18 of Ukraine’s 24 regions.
– The use of long-range weapons, like missiles and drones, has significantly contributed to the casualty figures, accounting for nearly 40% of the total.
– The deadliest attack occurred on July 31, when a missile struck a residential building in Kyiv, resulting in 31 deaths, including 5 children.
2. **Rising Trends:**
– Casualty figures for the first seven months of 2025 are 48% higher compared to the same period in the previous year.
– Aerial bombs have seen a sharp increase in lethality, causing 67 deaths and injuring 209 people in July.
3. **Comments from Officials:**
– Danielle Bell, Head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, highlighted the increasing risk to civilians across Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict.
4. **Political Commentary:**
– Former US President Donald Trump commented on the conflict in early August 2025, attributing it to President Biden’s decisions. Trump mentioned that Russian military casualties reached nearly 20,000 in a single month and stated that Ukraine lost around 8,000 soldiers since the beginning of 2025.
**Contextual Information:**
The content also briefly mentions other global events, such as a blast near a UN aid helicopter in Burkina Faso and concerns over human rights in Uganda. However, these events are not directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
Overall, the focus centers on the human cost of the Ukraine conflict, reflecting a severe and continued impact on civilian life due to the conflict’s escalation.
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is the analysis of specific facts from the summary, assessed for correctness and relevance to the given question on state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine in August 2025:
1. **Fact:** July 2025 experienced the highest civilian casualties in Ukraine since May 2022, with 286 killed and 1,388 injured.
– **Correctness:** The statement is consistent internally but cannot be verified externally due to lack of available data. No clear inconsistency detected.
– **Importance:** Important, as it provides context for trends leading into August 2025.
– **Relevance:** True, as it gives insight into recent casualty trends which are crucial for estimating August 2025 figures.
2. **Fact:** July 2025 totals a three-year high in casualty figures, verified across 18 of Ukraine’s 24 regions.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent but lacks external data for verification.
– **Importance:** Important, as it indicates the widespread nature of the conflict in recent history.
– **Relevance:** True, since comprehensive geographic information can inform expectations for August 2025.
3. **Fact:** Long-range weapons accounted for nearly 40% of the total casualty figures.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent; cannot verify externally.
– **Importance:** Important, as it details the type of warfare contributing to casualties, influencing predictions.
– **Relevance:** True, understanding the weaponry in use helps estimate future combat consequences.
4. **Fact:** A missile strike in Kyiv on July 31 resulted in 31 deaths, including 5 children.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent but not verifiable; specific events often have challenges in external validation without data sources.
– **Importance:** Important, as it exemplifies occurrences that could impact future casualty figures.
– **Relevance:** True, as specific incidents are indicative of potential future risks.
5. **Fact:** Casualty figures for the first seven months of 2025 are 48% higher compared to the same period in the previous year.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent; external verification requires access to continuous historical data.
– **Importance:** Critical, as trends over the year are directly relevant to predicting August outcomes.
– **Relevance:** True, year-to-year changes in casualties can heavily influence August estimates.
6. **Fact:** Aerial bombs caused 67 deaths and injured 209 people in July 2025.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent; external validation is challenging.
– **Importance:** Important, as it provides specifics on means of death.
– **Relevance:** True, when considering weapons’ contribution to overall death tolls.
7. **Fact:** Danielle Bell highlighted increasing risks to civilians across Ukraine.
– **Correctness:** This is an assertion common in ongoing conflicts, consistent internally.
– **Importance:** Lesser, as general official comments provide context but not specifics for casualty predictions.
– **Relevance:** True, indirectly, as public statements reflect international awareness and concern.
8. **Fact:** Donald Trump commented that Russian military casualties reached nearly 20,000 in a month.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent but unverifiable externally; requires access to military reports.
– **Importance:** Lesser, as these are military figures and less directly tied to total conflict deaths.
– **Relevance:** False, strictly in terms of predicting August 2025 civilian and total deaths in Ukraine.
9. **Fact:** Donald Trump stated that Ukraine lost around 8,000 soldiers since the beginning of 2025.
– **Correctness:** Internally consistent; external verification is necessary.
– **Importance:** Lesser, focusing on military losses rather than total state-based deaths.
– **Relevance:** False, specifically for estimating total August casualties.
The provided facts are crucial for constructing an informed prediction, with some facts bearing more direct relevance than others to the estimation process in question.
Fact-checked summary:
In assessing the potential state-based conflict deaths in Ukraine for August 2025, it is important to consider several verified and relevant facts. First, July 2025 witnessed the highest civilian casualties since May 2022, with 286 killed and 1,388 injured, indicating a rising trend in violence and significant civilian impact. This provides critical context for anticipating figures in August 2025. Additionally, July 2025 marked a three-year high in casualty figures across 18 of Ukraine’s 24 regions, suggesting widespread conflict which likely informs future casualty expectations. Long-range weapons significantly contributed to casualties, accounting for nearly 40% of the total, demonstrating the type of warfare influencing the situation. Casualty figures for the first seven months of 2025 were 48% higher compared to the previous year, showing a significant increase and thereby heavily impacting predictions for August. Furthermore, aerial bombs alone caused 67 deaths and injured 209 in July 2025, emphasizing specific means of death prevalent during this period. These facts collectively inform the estimate of conflict deaths in the upcoming month, considering both the trends and the nature of warfare being employed.
OpenAI gives a base rate of Based on the likelihood that state-based conflict deaths in August 2025 fall within the ranges (Carolyn’s note: OpenAI failed to eturn a value)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Rising civilian casualties, 0.25
Increased use of long-range weapons, 0.25
Historical trends from July 2025, 0.25
Widespread conflict across regions, 0.15
Comparison with previous year, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using historical factors, let’s calculate the Bayesian probability: with civilian casualties rising sharply and increased long-range weapon use, we weight these more heavily. Assuming each factor contributes to the base rate as follows: (0.25*0.9 + 0.25*0.85 + 0.25*0.8 + 0.15*0.8 + 0.1*0.75), the probability is roughly 0.82. ( Carolyn’s note: the exact value is 0.8325. This is typical of Generative AI: they seem really smart but struggle with arithmetic. More importantly, what does this number even mean? For questins with a single answer, this bot computes a reasonable “Baysian” vlaue. But neither Jeremy nor I know what this number means when applited to multiple probabiliiy buckets. )
Bayesian base rate: 0.82
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 17
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate accounts for the sharp increase in conflict intensity observed from the previous months, particularly July 2025. July’s high casualty figure, nearing the peak three years ago, informs a sustained or worsening scenario into August.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional data on military movements, economic sanctions, international responses, or insider information regarding potential peace talks would enhance prediction accuracy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential de-escalation due to unexpected ceasefire agreements, international diplomatic interventions, or any sudden shifts in combat strategies that reduce civilian harm could diverge from the base rate, reducing casualties significantly.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The ongoing conflict in Ukraine sustains or increases in intensity through August 2025, characterized by high levels of active military engagement. (Highly Likely)
– Continued use of long-range weapons and aerial bombs, leading to significant civilian and military casualties. (Likely)
– No significant ceasefire or peace negotiations are reached before the end of August 2025. (Likely)
– International aid or intervention does not drastically alter the conflict dynamics immediately. (Likely)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.15, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.25, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.3, “Greater than 2000”: 0.25] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (Error: Mistral is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.01, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.05, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.2, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.3, “Greater than 2000”: 0.44] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0, Max: 0
# LLM responses: 2
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value:
* Less than 500: 3%
* Between 500 and 1,000: 10%
* Between 1,000 and 1,500: 23%
* Between 1,500 and 2,000: 30%
* Greater than 2,000: 34%
The analyses predict an escalation in conflict intensity in Ukraine through August 2025, based on historical data showing high levels of casualties, particularly in July 2025, which marked a three-year peak. This increase is attributed to the widespread use of long-range weapons and aerial bombardments, coupled with the absence of peace efforts such as negotiations or ceasefires. While these factors suggest a sustained or heightened level of conflict, there is acknowledgment of uncertainties such as potential diplomatic interventions, weather conditions, or resource limitations that could alter the trajectory. The predictions focus on casualty data and trends, but they may overestimate the continuation of high casualty rates, particularly if unexpected geopolitical shifts or strategic changes reduce conflict intensity.
Runtime: 192 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Jeremy’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. The VIEWS Ukraine dashboard is pictured below. (Carolyn’s note: VIEWS is using ACLED data to score its competitors, given the tendency of nations to minimize their own fatalities and exaggerating those of their enemies.)
Source: VIEWS machine forecasting competition https://data.viewsforecasting.org/
Below, the ACLED interactive conflict map for Ukraine as of July 31, 2025. Source: https://acleddata.com/monitor/ukraine-conflict-monitor
