Ukraine Conflict Deaths? Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s forecast, Oct. 2, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths (total of all civilian and combat deaths, including both Ukrainian and Russian combatants) will be reported by ACLED in Ukraine in October 2025?

Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

Less than 500: 5%
Between 500 and 1,000: 20%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 35%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 25%
Greater than 2,000: 15%

10–13 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Ukraine conflict deaths 2025
News from various sources:

The content provided contains reports on recent developments in the ongoing Ukraine conflict as of late September and early October 2025. Key points include:

1. **Russian Military Losses**: As of September 30, 2025, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that Russian combat losses have reached approximately 1,110,560 personnel, with 970 casualties reported in the past day. In addition to personnel losses, significant equipment losses include tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, aircraft, helicopters, and tactical UAVs.
2. **Recent Incidents**: Ukrainian drone operators from the 59th Separate Assault Brigade destroyed a Russian Mi-8 transport and combat helicopter near Kotliarivka using an FPV drone.
3. **Cross-Border Attacks**: Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s Belgorod border region resulted in the deaths of two civilians, while Russian shelling in Kostiantynivka, Ukraine, claimed one life and caused damage to infrastructure.
4. **Russian Missile and Drone Attacks**: Russia launched a large-scale attack using 619 drones and missiles, killing at least three people and wounding dozens in Ukraine. President Zelenskyy reported over 1,500 drone strikes, more than 1,280 guided aerial bombs, and various missiles in a week.
5. **Diplomatic Developments**: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the United Nations General Assembly to discuss long-term security guarantees for Ukraine.
These updates highlight the ongoing hostilities and their impact on both military personnel and civilians, as well as diplomatic efforts to address the conflict.

Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a list of specific facts from the summary:
1. **Russian Military Losses**: As of September 30, 2025, Russian combat losses have reached approximately 1,110,560 personnel according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with 970 casualties reported in the past day.
– **Correct?**: Externally, this number appears highly implausible. Internal consistency is maintained with the mention of daily casualties.
– **Importance**: Critical, as high military losses indicate continued intense conflict.
– **Relevance**: True, as these losses contribute directly to the total state-based conflict deaths that ACLED might report.
2. **Equipment Losses**: Significant Russian equipment losses include tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, aircraft, helicopters, and tactical UAVs.
– **Correct?**: These claims are plausible, as such losses are typical in warfare. However, without specific numbers, it’s difficult to externally verify.
– **Importance**: Important, as equipment losses indicate the level of conflict intensity.
– **Relevance**: True, as equipment losses impact the progression and dynamics of the conflict.
3. **Destruction of Russian Mi-8 Helicopter**: Ukrainian drone operators destroyed a Russian Mi-8 transport and combat helicopter near Kotliarivka using an FPV drone.
– **Correct?**: The specific claim is plausible based on recent technological warfare trends.
– **Importance**: Lesser, as it’s a specific incident rather than a broad trend.
– **Relevance**: True, as every combat death or equipment loss adds to overall conflict data.
4. **Cross-Border Attacks**: Ukrainian attacks resulted in the deaths of two civilians in Russia’s Belgorod region, while Russian shelling killed one person in Kostiantynivka, Ukraine.
– **Correct?**: Such cross-border actions have been reported, though specific verification for these incidents would require further data.
– **Importance**: Important, as these facts illustrate ongoing civilian impacts.
– **Relevance**: True, since these civilian deaths contribute to the overall conflict death count.
5. **Russian Missile and Drone Attacks**: Russia launched a large-scale attack using 619 drones and missiles, killing at least three people and wounding dozens. Over a week, over 1,500 drone strikes and 1,280 guided aerial bombs occurred.
– **Correct?**: These numbers appear inconsistent unless they span a broader time frame than a typical attack, questioning internal consistency.
– **Importance**: Critical, due to the high potential death and destruction toll.
– **Relevance**: True, as they directly increase the number of conflict deaths relevant to the ACLED report.
6. **Diplomatic Meeting**: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the U.N. General Assembly.
– **Correct?**: Donald Trump was not U.S. President in 2025.(Carolyn‘s note: Error!)
– **Importance**: Unimportant to determining the number of conflict deaths.
– **Relevance**: False, as this diplomatic meeting does not affect the conflict death count.

These details provide varying degrees of insight into the broader question concerning the total number of conflict deaths expected to be reported by ACLED for October 2025 in Ukraine. The majority focus on direct impacts of the conflict, though some are less directly related or factually questionable.

Fact-checked summary:
As of September 30, 2025, Russian military losses reportedly amount to approximately 1,110,560 personnel, contributing directly to the state-based conflict deaths. This significant number indicates continued intense conflict, which is critical to understanding the potential data ACLED might report. Russian attacks using drones and missiles have resulted in civilian casualties, with at least three people killed, indicating high potential death and destruction tolls. Cross-border attacks, such as those resulting in civilian deaths in both Russia’s Belgorod region and Ukraine’s Kostiantynivka, illustrate the ongoing impact on civilians, further influencing the overall conflict death count. Each of these incidents is directly relevant to assessing the number of conflict-related deaths likely to be reported by ACLED for October 2025.

OpenAI gives a base rate of Probability that the total conflict-related deaths reported by ACLED for October 2025 will fall within a range of 500 to 2000.
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Monthly conflict deaths in 2024, 0.4
Trend of escalation in 2025, 0.35
Historical reporting by ACLED, 0.25
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
To perform the Bayesian calculation, we start with a base rate of historical monthly conflict deaths falling within 500 to 2000. Given recent reports indicating high conflict deaths, increase the likelihood of a similar range. Take into account reporting delays and potential biases in historical ACLED data compared to recent trends. Adjust the prior by the likelihood ratio based on new evidence: updated likelihood = prior probability * likelihood ratio (new evidence reflecting higher death tolls).
Bayesian base rate: 0.85 (Carolyn’s note: In cases where the Multi-AI Oracle is only forecasting a single percent probability, this Bayesian rate is easy to understand. But in this case, with five probability buckets, this apparently is an overall confidence factor across all buckets.)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 30
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was derived from historical conflict death data, considering the current reported high civilian and military casualties. The consistent reporting of intense conflict has shifted the likelihood to higher death counts within ACLED’s reporting, previously noting such ranges in intense conflict months.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional information, such as ACLED’s methodologies for counting deaths or shifts in conflict dynamics (like ceasefires or escalations), would refine the forecast. Real-time data from conflict monitoring organizations would aid in verifying trends.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
If peace negotiations advance or there’s a sudden decrease in hostilities, the death count might fall below expectations. On the contrary, a surge in military operations or surprise attacks could increase the count sharply.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continuation of intense military conflict in the region. Highly likely
– Sustained high level of civilian and military casualties. Highly likely
– Continued cross-border attacks leading to additional deaths. Likely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.15, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.35, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.3, “Greater than 2000”: 0.15] – confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.01, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.2, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.5, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.2, “Greater than 2000”: 0.09] – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 500”: 0.05, “Between 500 and 1000”: 0.2, “Between 1000 and 1500”: 0.3, “Between 1500 and 2000”: 0.25, “Greater than 2000”: 0.2] – confidence: 7)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.066666666666667, Max: 0.13333333333333
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:

Less than 500: 5%
Between 500 and 1,000: 20%
Between 1,000 and 1,500: 35%
Between 1,500 and 2,000: 25%
Greater than 2,000: 15%
The prediction of high casualties in the ongoing conflict is grounded in several key observations: historical patterns of intense conflict resulting in high death tolls, current intelligence on substantial military losses, and the continuation of cross-border attacks and civilian targeting. Additionally, seasonal factors and historical base rates suggest that casualty figures usually range between 1000-2000 during such active phases. However, this prediction could be incorrect if sudden peace negotiations, unexpected military strategies, or international interventions significantly decrease hostilities. Changes in reporting accuracy or methodologies and unpredictability in conflict developments also introduce uncertainties. Therefore, while the general expectation is a high casualty rate, unforeseen events could either mitigate or exacerbate the situation.

Runtime: 141 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Jeremy’s Ukraine forecasts are a side experiment with the VIEWS competition. The VIEWS Ukraine dashboard is pictured below. (Carolyn’s note: VIEWS is using ACLED data to score its competitors, given the tendency of nations to minimize their own fatalities and exaggerating those of their enemies.)