How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2024 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Jeremy‘s latest version of his Multi-AI Oracle says:
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
Okay, so the user is asking for current web results related to the Canada election with a focus on the Conservative Party. Let me start by going through the provided search results to find relevant information.
First, looking at the sources, [1], [4], [5], [7], and [10] seem directly related to the Canadian election and the Conservative Party. The other sources either discuss unrelated topics like AI benchmarks or cryptocurrency predictions, so I can probably ignore those.
Starting with [1], it mentions the snap elections called for April 28, 2025, by Prime Minister Mark Carney. The main issues have shifted due to Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, were initially leading, but polls have tightened. The Liberals under Carney are now projected to win a majority. The Conservatives’ slogan is “Canada First,” similar to Trump’s “America First.”
Source [4] is the Wikipedia page for the 2025 election. It lists the parties, their leaders, and current standings. The Conservatives have 120 seats, led by Poilievre. Their platform includes tax cuts, eliminating GST on homes, and ending funding for CBC’s English operations. The slogans and policy platforms table here is useful for creating a comparison.
[5] discusses the 2022 Conservative leadership election where Poilievre won in a landslide. This gives background on his rise to leadership, which is relevant for understanding the party’s current stance.
In [7], Global News outlines party promises. The Conservatives’ plans on cost of living (tax cuts, retirement age) and environment (scrapping carbon tax, fast-tracking projects) are detailed. This source also mentions the Liberals’ and NDP’s counter-proposals, which could be useful for comparison.
Source [10] from Science.org highlights Poilievre’s pledge to end “woke ideology” in research funding, comparing it to Trump’s policies. This is a key point about the Conservatives’ stance on science and education, which might affect their support among academics.
Now, I need to compile this information into a summary. The main points are the election date, key issues (economy, US relations), party platforms, polling trends, and specific Conservative policies. Also, the Wikipedia tables from [4] and [7] can be formatted into Markdown tables for clarity.
I should check if there’s any data on prediction markets, but the search results don’t mention Kalshi, Metaculus, or Polymarket. The only reference is in [9], but it’s about the US election, not Canada. So I’ll note that no relevant prediction market data was found.
For time series data, the polls shifted from a Conservative lead to a Liberal lead post-Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s tariffs. The CSIS paper in [1] shows the seat projections before and after March 25, which can be a time series table. The mean, median, etc., might not be applicable here, but the change is significant.
I need to ensure citations are correctly placed after each relevant sentence, using the source numbers. Also, follow the format rules: start with a summary, use headers, lists, and tables where appropriate, avoid markdown in the start, and cite up to three sources per sentence.
Finally, wrap it up with a summary highlighting the key factors in the election, like Trump’s influence and the close race between Liberals and Conservatives.
The 2025 Canadian federal election, scheduled for April 28, has become a pivotal contest dominated by economic resilience, U.S. relations, and ideological battles. Here’s a structured analysis of key developments:
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## **Election Context & Current Polling**
– **Snap election called**: Prime Minister Mark Carney triggered a 37-day campaign on March 23 after succeeding Justin Trudeau[1][4].
– **Polling shift**: The Liberals reversed a 24-point Conservative lead (pre-Trudeau resignation) to a narrow advantage:
– **March 25 projection**: Liberals 183 seats (39.6% support) vs. Conservatives 130 (37.3%)[1][4].
– **Key driver**: President Trump’s tariff threats and annexation rhetoric refocused the campaign on U.S.-Canada relations[1][10].
—
## **Conservative Party Platform**
**Leader**: Pierre Poilievre (elected CPC leader in 2022 with 68% first-round support)[5].
—
## **Liberal Party Contrast**
**Leader**: Mark Carney (replaced Trudeau in January 2025)[1][4].
—
## **Polling Trends & Seat Projections**
Historical polling shifts since Trudeau’s resignation:
—
## **Key Issues Shaping the Election**
1. **U.S. relations**: Both parties emphasize standing up to Trump, but differ on methods:
– Conservatives: “Canada First” economic nationalism[1][10].
– Liberals: “Elbows Up” rallies and diversified trade[1][4].
2. **Cost of living**: Tax cuts (CPC) vs. food price caps (NDP) dominate debates[7].
3. **Research funding**: Conservatives’ anti-“woke” stance sparks academic backlash[10].
—
## **Prediction Markets & Data Gaps**
No direct prediction market data (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) was found in provided sources. However, polling indicates a toss-up race with Liberals gaining momentum[1][4][10].
—
The election hinges on balancing domestic priorities with managing an unpredictable U.S. administration, making leadership credibility on economic and diplomatic fronts the critical battleground.
OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of Liberals versus Conservatives winning: Historically, mid-campaign surges for one party have resulted in outcomes that match the late-stage polls, but variability is significant due to close margins.
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 18
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is influenced by the historical polling data shifts, especially post-Trudeau resignation, and influenced by Trump’s actions. Historically, mid-campaign surges for one party have resulted in outcomes that match the late-stage polls, but variability is significant due to close margins.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
It would be beneficial to have updated real-time data from more predictive analytics platforms like prediction markets or comprehensive sentiment analyses from social media, as traditional polling may not capture all voter sentiments.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Should new tariffs from the U.S. be introduced or major policy shifts occur, the polls could swing again. Additionally, any significant debate performances could alter public perception drastically this close to the election.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively: (Carolyn’s note: In this case, “positively” means the Liberals will retain control of Canada’s Parliament.)
– Liberals winning a majority Likely
– Conservatives gaining more than 130 seats Unlikely
– NDP maintaining a significant seat count despite reduced polls Moderate
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.45, “between 172 and 205”: 0.35, “between 206 and 240”: 0.15, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.01, “between 172 and 205”: 0.59, “between 206 and 240”: 0.39, “more than 240”: 0.01] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.25, “between 172 and 205”: 0.4, “between 206 and 240”: 0.25, “more than 240”: 0.1] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 26%
* between 172 and 205: 42%
* between 206 and 240: 26%
* more than 240: 6%
The prediction that the Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, would perform well in the upcoming Canadian election has changed significantly due to various factors. The resignation of Justin Trudeau and the appointment of Mark Carney as the new Liberal leader have shifted the political landscape, with the Liberals gaining traction and currently projected to win a majority. This shift has been exacerbated by external influences such as Trump’s tariff threats, which have impacted U.S.-Canada relations and benefited the Liberals’ messaging of standing up to Trump, as opposed to the Conservatives’ ‘Canada First’ rhetoric. While historical trends and current polling suggest the Liberals have an edge, the outcome is still uncertain due to potential external events, such as new U.S. tariffs or campaign developments, which could sway voter preferences. The Conservatives’ declining lead and current polling at around 130 seats indicate a much closer race, but tactical shifts, gaffes, or regional variations could still alter the dynamic before the April 28, 2025 election date.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
