Botmaster Phil Godzin’s Sudan conflict deaths forecast, July 11, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED in 2025?

Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts today:

Less than 1,000: 0%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 0%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 3%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 25%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 45%
More than 12,000: 27%

16–21 minutes read (Carolyn’s note: This is an edited version of pgodzinai’s results. Full rationale here —>)

Perplexity response:
{think}

**Citations and Key Information from Search Results**
1. **Cumulative Death Toll**: As of July 2025, Arab News cites “conservative estimates” of over **15,000 deaths** since April 2023[1]. This figure represents a baseline for conflict intensity but does not isolate 2025-specific data.
2. **Escalating Violence**: The EU report highlights **attacks on civilians and infrastructure** continuing through late 2024, with “unprecedented protection crises” for IDPs[2]. UNOCHA describes ongoing “staggering” needs due to armed conflict and disease outbreaks[2], suggesting sustained violence into 2025.

Grok response:### List of 10 Citations

1. **Title**: Sudanese civil war (2023–present) – Wikipedia
**Description**: An overview of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, including military dynamics and international involvement.
**Date**: 2025-07-01
**Summary**: The article details the escalation of violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces, highlighting how unchecked conflicts could merge with regional issues and increase casualties. It notes Turkey’s role in arming parties, which experts warn could prolong state-based violence and lead to higher death tolls. Recent updates emphasize the humanitarian crisis, with potential for thousands more deaths if mediation fails.
2. **Title**: Sudan war: A simple guide to what is happening
**Description**: A BBC news article explaining the background and current state of the Sudan conflict.
**Date**: 2025-07-04
**Summary**: The piece outlines how the 2023 power struggle has evolved into widespread violence, resulting in significant state-based conflict deaths. It reports on ongoing clashes and their humanitarian impact, with experts estimating continued high mortality without intervention. Recent developments suggest a slight dip in reported deaths in early 2025 compared to late 2024, but warn of potential spikes.
3. **Title**: Sudan, July 2025 Monthly Forecast
**Description**: A Security Council Report briefing on UN activities related to Sudan’s conflicts.
**Date**: 2025-07-01
**Summary**: The forecast discusses the ICC’s role in investigating war crimes in Darfur, linking these to rising state-based conflict deaths. It highlights expert concerns from UN officials about the need for immediate ceasefires to curb fatalities. As of mid-2025, it references preliminary ACLED data showing over 1,000 deaths in the first half of the year, indicating a persistent threat of escalation.
4. **Title**: Reuters Sudan News
**Description**: A collection of up-to-date stories on Sudan’s ongoing events from a global news agency.
**Date**: 2025-07-01 (with updates as recent as 2025-07-11)
**Summary**: The news feed covers the latest clashes and their death tolls, drawing from ACLED and other monitors. It notes a reported increase in state-based violence in June 2025, potentially pushing annual deaths higher. Experts cited warn that without international pressure, deaths could exceed 2024 levels, emphasizing the need for data-driven interventions.
5. **Title**: What Are the Economic and Poverty Implications for Sudan If the Conflict Continues Through 2025?
**Description**: An academic article from Taylor & Francis analyzing the economic fallout of Sudan’s conflict.
**Date**: 2025-07-05
**Summary**: The study links prolonged conflict to a surge in state-based deaths, estimating that continued fighting could add thousands to ACLED’s tally for 2025. It cites expert models predicting economic collapse as a driver of violence, with recent data showing a 20% rise in conflict-related fatalities in the first half of 2025. Authors recommend urgent peace efforts to mitigate these trends.
6. **Title**: ICC believes war crimes and crimes against humanity are taking place now in Sudan’s Darfur region
**Description**: An Independent article on the ICC’s assessment of ongoing atrocities in Sudan.
**Date**: Published 14 hours ago (as of 2025-07-11, approximately 2025-07-10)
**Summary**: The ICC deputy prosecutor states there are reasonable grounds for war crimes in Darfur, directly contributing to state-based conflict deaths. It references ACLED data indicating over 2,000 deaths in Darfur alone through mid-2025. Experts urge immediate action, noting that this could lead to a significant uptick in total deaths if not addressed.
7. **Title**: Sudan conflict: War crimes being committed in Darfur, ICC believes
**Description**: A BBC article focusing on ICC findings in western Sudan.
**Date**: Published 10 hours ago (as of 2025-07-11, approximately 2025-07-10)
**Summary**: The article reports on evidence of war crimes fueling state-based violence, with ACLED tracking a rise in deaths during recent skirmishes. It includes expert opinions from ICC officials predicting continued high mortality without accountability. As of July 2025, partial data shows around 1,500 deaths in the region, signaling potential for the full year to exceed prior estimates.
8. **Title**: Trump administration completes contentious deportations to South Sudan
**Description**: An Al Jazeera article touching on regional instability, including links to Sudan’s conflict.
**Date**: 2025-07-05
**Summary**: While primarily about deportations, it discusses how U.S. actions exacerbate regional tensions, indirectly increasing state-based conflict deaths in Sudan. Experts warn of spillover effects from South Sudan, with ACLED data showing a correlation between border incidents and fatalities. Recent updates indicate a modest increase in deaths linked to these dynamics in early July 2025.
9. **Title**: Q&A: Twelve days that shook the region: Inside the Iran-Israel war
**Description**: An ACLED post analyzing regional conflicts, with indirect references to Sudan.
**Date**: 2025-07-04
**Summary**: The Q&A from ACLED discusses how broader Middle East tensions could influence Sudan’s conflict, potentially raising state-based death tolls. It cites ACLED’s own data showing over 4,000 deaths in Sudan through mid-2025 amid interconnected violence. Experts emphasize monitoring for escalation, as regional events could push annual figures higher than expected.
10. **Title**: Middle East Overview: July 2025
**Description**: An ACLED overview of conflicts in the Middle East, including Sudan’s role.
**Date**: 2025-07-04
**Summary**: The overview links Sudan’s internal strife to regional patterns, reporting preliminary ACLED figures of approximately 4,500 state-based conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025 so far. It highlights expert analyses warning of seasonal spikes in violence during summer months. Recent updates suggest a possible stabilization if ceasefires hold, but with risks of exceeding 8,000 deaths for the year.

AskNews Deep Search Response: **ACLED Sudan Conflict Deaths 2025 Contextual Summary (as of July 11, 2025):**
1. **2025 Conflict Dynamics**
– Sustained high-intensity fighting in Darfur, North Kordofan, and Al-Fashir, with systematic targeting of civilians ([1][2][5][8]).
– 700+ families displaced in Bara (North Kordofan) in July alone due to army-RSF battles ([5][6][7]).
2. **ACLED Data Challenges**
– April 2025 ACLED report cited **37,226 conflict deaths over two years** (2023–2025), averaging **50 daily deaths** ([32]). *Extrapolated to 2025 alone*: ~9,300 deaths (mid-“Between 8000 and 12000” range).
– However, ACLED’s methodology discounts unverified claims, potentially undercounting ([22][23]). Other sources suggest **280,000 total deaths (2023–2025)** including famine/disease ([30]).
3. **Humanitarian Amplifiers**
– **38% of children in Al-Fashir** face acute malnutrition; cholera outbreaks reported in Darfur ([8][9][21]).
– UN: **30.4M Sudanese** (half the population) require aid, with only 10% of funding met ([33]). Starvation and disease likely inflate indirect deaths.
4. **2025 Escalation Indicators**
– ICC prosecutor confirms **war crimes in Darfur** ([2]).
– RSF blockades and army counteroffensives intensify in strategic hubs (e.g., Bara, Al-Fashir) ([5][8]).
5. **Conflicting Estimates**
– **ACLED’s conservative tracking**: Projects ~9,300 direct conflict deaths for 2025 (based on April 2025 data).
– **Local/NGO reports**: Suggest much higher tolls when including indirect causes (e.g., Citation [28]: 6M at risk of starvation in 2025).

GPT News Summary:
To anticipate the number of state-based conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025, as reported by ACLED, it’s crucial to understand the current dynamics and key developments in the conflict. Recent reports provide a grim outlook for Sudan’s immediate future regarding the continuation and intensity of violence.
1. **Current Conflict Environment**
– The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has intensified, involving over 105 armed groups (Sky News, July 10, 2025). The presence of numerous armed groups has further destabilized the region, contributing significantly to violence and undermining central authority.
– Reports indicate tens of thousands to over 150,000 deaths as a result of the ongoing conflict, with 15 million people displaced (Sky News, July 10, 2025).
2. **Recent Developments**
– The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported the displacement of 700 families in North Kordofan due to escalating violence (Alhadath, July 10, 2025). The strategic location of regions like Bara makes them conflict flashpoints, which could affect casualty rates.
– The International Criminal Court (ICC) has condemned ongoing war crimes in Darfur (YLE, July 11, 2025), suggesting an escalation in the humanitarian crisis and continued acts of violence.
3. **Humanitarian Impact**
– The healthcare system is collapsing, with 90% of facilities in Darfur and Kordofan shut down (Youm7, July 9, 2025). This collapse exacerbates fatalities not only from combat but from secondary effects like disease.
– Malnutrition has doubled among children in North Darfur compared to last year (UNICEF, July 11, 2025), indicating severe humanitarian distress, which can fuel further conflict as resources become scarcer.
4. **Projected Trends**
– The ACLED Regional Overview (July 2025) notes battles have significantly decreased as combatants focus on controlling strategic areas. However, the displacement crisis remains large-scale due to ongoing strategic movements by the warring factions.
– A study by American universities estimated the death toll at around 130,000, a disparity from official reports, hinting at possible underreporting or forecasting of increased fatalities (Anadolu, July 10, 2025).
5. **International Responses and Challenges**
– The complex network of armed groups has halted peace efforts. International calls for disarmament and reintegration of militias (Sky News, July

Anthropic response:
### Current Context & Data Points
The most concrete data point comes from one research assistant citing an April 2025 ACLED report that documented 37,226 conflict deaths over two years (2023-2025), averaging approximately 50 daily deaths. This suggests roughly 9,300 deaths for 2025 if extrapolated for the full year, placing us in the “Between 8000 and 12000” range.

Another research assistant notes that ACLED has reported approximately 4,500 state-based conflict deaths in Sudan from January 1 to July 11, 2025. With 5.5 months elapsed (about 46% of the year), this puts Sudan on pace for approximately 9,800 deaths for the full year—again in the “Between 8000 and 12000” range.
For historical context, one assistant mentions that ACLED reported about 12,000 deaths in 2024 and 10,000 deaths in 2023, showing fluctuation but no clear decline trend.

### Forecast Rationale
Based on the 4,500 deaths reported through July 11 (46% of the year), and assuming similar intensity, we would expect approximately 9,800 deaths for the full year. However, we must adjust for:
– Seasonal variations: Historical data suggests potential spikes in Q3 (July-September)
– Ongoing siege warfare in Al-Fashir and other strategic locations
– The possibility of escalation as resources become scarcer

The most likely scenario places the final ACLED tally between 8,000-12,000 deaths, but with meaningful probability mass in adjacent buckets due to uncertainty. The “More than 12,000” scenario becomes plausible if violence significantly intensifies in the remaining months, while lower buckets become possible if reporting capacity diminishes or if unexpected de-escalation occurs.

The historical baseline (10,000-12,000 deaths in previous years) and current trajectory strongly favor the “Between 8000 and 12000” range, but prudent forecasting requires acknowledging significant uncertainties given the complex, volatile situation.

Gemini Multiple Choice response:

(Carolyn‘s note: Gemini failed to give an answer.)

Model’s Answer:

## Current Situation Assessment
The conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since April 2023. According to recent reports, over 15,000 people have been killed since the conflict began through July 2025, with significant humanitarian challenges including 4 million displaced persons. This suggests a cumulative death toll averaging around 6,000-7,000 per year across 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025.

ACLED’s data tracking provides the most relevant metric for this forecast. From my research assistants’ information, ACLED reported approximately 37,226 conflict deaths over the two-year period from April 2023 to April 2025, averaging about 50 daily deaths. More specifically, one research assistant notes that ACLED has recorded approximately 4,500 state-based conflict deaths in Sudan for 2025 through July 11th (roughly the first half of the year).

## Trend Analysis
Several factors suggest the conflict remains intense:
1. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has confirmed ongoing war crimes in Darfur
2. The conflict involves over 105 armed groups across multiple regions
3. Reports indicate continued high-intensity fighting in strategic areas including Darfur, North Kordofan, and Al-Fashir
4. Recent displacements (700+ families in North Kordofan in July alone) suggest active conflict zones

However, one research assistant noted that battles have “significantly decreased as combatants focus on controlling strategic areas,” which might indicate a potential stabilization or shift in tactics rather than a complete cessation of violence.

## Time Considerations
The question asks about the full-year total for 2025, but we’re already halfway through the year with approximately 4,500 deaths recorded. With roughly 5.5 months remaining in 2025 (from July 11 to December 31), we need to project forward based on current patterns while accounting for possible escalation or de-escalation.
If the current rate continued unchanged (approximately 4,500 deaths in 6.5 months), we would expect about 3,800 additional deaths for the remainder of the year, bringing the total to around 8,300 for 2025. However, several factors complicate this simple projection.

## Statistical Analysis
Based on the partial year data of 4,500 deaths in approximately 6.5 months, we can calculate:
– Daily average: ~23 deaths/day
– Monthly average: ~692 deaths/month
Projecting forward for the remaining 5.5 months at the current rate: 692 × 5.5 = 3,806 additional deaths
This would suggest a year-end total of approximately 8,306 deaths, falling in the “Between 8000 and 12000” category.
However, this projection assumes the conflict maintains its current intensity without significant escalation or de-escalation. Given the volatile nature of the conflict and the factors mentioned above, there is substantial uncertainty around this central estimate.

Considering all available information, I arrive at the following probability distribution:
1. **Less than 1000**: This outcome is extremely unlikely given we already have 4,500 deaths recorded through mid-2025. The only scenario would be massive data revisions, which is implausible.
– Probability: 0%
2. **Between 1000 and 3000**: Similarly implausible given current year-to-date figures.
– Probability: 0%
3. **Between 3000 and 5000**: This would require a significant downward revision of existing data or an almost complete cessation of violence for the remainder of the year, both highly unlikely.
– Probability: 3%
4. **Between 5000 and 8000**: This outcome would require a substantial de-escalation from current rates (approximately 40-50% reduction). While possible if ceasefire efforts succeed, the ongoing reports of violence make this less likely.
– Probability: 25%
5. **Between 8000 and 12000**: This aligns with the projection based on the current rate (approximately 8,300 deaths) and allows for some variation in conflict intensity. This seems most probable given current patterns.
– Probability: 45%
6. **More than 12000**: This would require significant escalation above current rates. Given the ongoing humanitarian crisis, ICC reports of war crimes, and strategic importance of contested areas, this remains a substantial possibility.
– Probability: 27%

Less than 1,000: 0%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 0%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 3%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 25%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 45%
More than 12,000: 27%

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment with VIEWS.