How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?
Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 14%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 23%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 33%
More than 12,000: 24%
13–16 minutes read
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan conflict deaths 2025
News from various sources:
The recent conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, involves a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This conflict has resulted in significant and likely underreported loss of life, with violence and indirect impacts like starvation and disease being major contributors.
A report by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and the Sudan Research Group found that over 61,000 people died in Khartoum State alone from April 2023 to June 2024. This figure includes 26,000 deaths attributed directly to violence, which surpasses the national estimate of 20,178 violent deaths by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project. The study’s methodology revealed substantial underreporting due to disrupted services and limited data collection, and highlighted an increased mortality rate in Khartoum of 50% compared to pre-war figures.
The report also points out a catastrophic humanitarian situation, with starvation and disease, especially in the regions of Kordofan and Darfur, mounting as leading causes of death. The war has displaced around 12 million people, creating one of the world’s largest displacement crises. International aid organizations have warned of a historic hunger crisis, with nearly 25 million people in need of aid and around 2 million at risk of starvation if conditions persist.
The study utilized a “capture-recapture” methodology to estimate deaths, drawing data from surveys circulated on social media and through community networks. Despite its limitations, the study provides crucial insights into the mortality impact of the Sudan conflict, underscoring the invisibility and severity of the crisis.
The RSF and SAF have both traded accusations of civilian harm, with the RSF accused of ethnically driven violence in Darfur. Both sides deny blocking humanitarian aid, though evidence from the United Nations and other organizations suggests significant challenges in delivering assistance to those in need. The conflict has critically weakened Sudan’s healthcare infrastructure, leading to a spike in preventable disease deaths.
This volatile situation demands immediate international attention to avert a worsening humanitarian catastrophe, with calls for more robust data collection and increased humanitarian assistance to address the escalating needs of the Sudanese population.
Fact-checking news summary:
Here is a structured list of specific facts from the summary, their verification, and an analysis of their importance and relevance to the original question regarding the number of state-based conflict deaths in Sudan in 2025 as reported by ACLED:
1. **Fact:** The conflict in Sudan began in April 2023 and involves a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
– **Verification:** True. This information is widely reported and consistent with external sources.
– **Importance:** Greater. Understanding the parties involved is crucial to assessing conflict-related fatalities.
– **Relevance:** True.
2. **Fact:** The conflict has resulted in significant and likely underreported loss of life, with violence, starvation, and disease being major contributors.
– **Verification:** True. This aligns with reports from humanitarian organizations and news outlets.
– **Importance:** Important. It provides context for mortality figures and implications.
– **Relevance:** True.
3. **Fact:** Over 61,000 people died in Khartoum State alone from April 2023 to June 2024, according to a report by LSHTM and the Sudan Research Group.
– **Verification:** True. The LSHTM report aligns with other humanitarian assessments but should be viewed considering its methodology.
– **Importance:** Critical. Directly pertains to assessing the scale of conflict-related deaths.
– **Relevance:** True.
4. **Fact:** The report states that 26,000 deaths were attributed directly to violence.
– **Verification:** True. Consistent with the LSHTM report’s findings.
– **Importance:** Critical. Provides a measure of conflict severity.
– **Relevance:** True.
5. **Fact:** ACLED estimates 20,178 violent deaths nationally as of the summary.
– **Verification:** True. Consistent with ACLED’s reporting methodology and available external data.
– **Importance:** Critical. ACLED’s numbers are directly tied to the original question.
– **Relevance:** True.
6. **Fact:** The increased mortality rate in Khartoum is 50% compared to pre-war figures.
– **Verification:** True. This can be inferred from LSHTM’s analysis of increased death rates.
– **Importance:** Important. Contextualizes the impact of the conflict on mortality.
– **Relevance:** False. It’s less directly relevant to the question, though it underscores severity.
7. **Fact:** A humanitarian crisis with starvation and disease is especially severe in Kordofan and Darfur.
– **Verification:** True. These regions are identified as severely affected by humanitarian agencies.
– **Importance:** Important. Provides context for indirect conflict deaths.
– **Relevance:** True.
8. **Fact:** Around 12 million people have been displaced due to the conflict.
– **Verification:** True. Verified by the United Nations and other humanitarian reports.
– **Importance:** Greater. Displacement affects mortality estimates indirectly.
– **Relevance:** True.
9. **Fact:** Nearly 25 million people are in need of aid and 2 million are at risk of starvation.
– **Verification:** True. Supported by UN and NGO reports.
– **Importance:** Greater. Highlights the humanitarian situation’s impact on mortality.
– **Relevance:** True.
10. **Fact:** The study used a “capture-recapture” methodology, collecting data through social media surveys and community networks.
– **Verification:** True. The methodology is detailed in the report.
– **Importance:** Lesser. Provides context on data reliability and limitations.
– **Relevance:** True.
11. **Fact:** The RSF is accused of ethnically driven violence in Darfur.
– **Verification:** True. Demolished ethnic violence by RSF is well-documented.
– **Importance:** Important. May affect mortality estimations in Darfur.
– **Relevance:** True.
12. **Fact:** Both sides, RSF and SAF, deny blocking humanitarian aid despite reports indicating challenges from the UN.
– **Verification:** True. Documented by international organizations.
– **Importance:** Important. Impacts the humanitarian situation and mortality indirectly.
– **Relevance:** True.
13. **Fact:** The conflict has critically weakened Sudan’s healthcare infrastructure.
– **Verification:** True. Verified by multiple humanitarian assessments.
– **Importance:** Important. Affects indirect mortality due to disease.
– **Relevance:** True.
14. **Fact:** There are calls for increased data collection and international assistance to address the escalating crisis.
– **Verification:** True. Commonly echoed by international relief organizations and analysts.
– **Importance:** Lesser. Provides context for the overall response and future data accuracy.
– **Relevance:** True.
These facts together provide a comprehensive picture of the situation in Sudan, helping to estimate potential future impacts, including conflict deaths, which relate directly to the original question.
Fact-checked summary:
The conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has led to significant loss of life and humanitarian crises. Over 61,000 people have died in Khartoum State from April 2023 to June 2024, and 26,000 of these deaths were attributed directly to violence, highlighting the conflict’s severity. ACLED has reported 20,178 violent deaths nationally, signifying a critical evaluation relevant to the original question of death estimates in 2025. Humanitarian crises in regions like Kordofan and Darfur result in widespread starvation and disease, while around 12 million people have been displaced. Nearly 25 million need aid, with 2 million at risk of starvation. The conflict has severely impacted healthcare infrastructure, compounding the mortality rate. Calls for increased data collection and international aid aim to address the crisis, with RSF’s ethnic violence in Darfur and both parties denying hindrance to humanitarian aid underscoring the complexity of the situation. These facts provide essential context for understanding potential conflict deaths reported in Sudan by ACLED in 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of (Carolyn’s note: OpenAI failed to return a value.)
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors and current events, we model the base rate information with: previous year violent deaths adjustment (0.3 * 0.5), ethnic violence trends (0.3 * 0.6), humanitarian aid issues (0.2 * 0.6), national political stability (0.2 * 0.4). The Bayesian estimate becomes (0.15 + 0.18 + 0.12 + 0.08) = 0.53.(Carolyn’s note: According to LibreOffice Calc, this calculation is correct.)
Bayesian base rate: 0.53 (Carolyn’s note: In cases where the Multi-AI Oracle is only forecasting a single percent probability, this is pretty good. But in this case, with six probability buckets, this apparently is an overall confidence level across all buckets. It is close to the average of the confidence levels of the three AIs below — but not identical.)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 121
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by looking at the number of violent deaths in 2024 and the ongoing severe conditions, as reported. Past violent death reports and conflict activity indicate a high probability of a similar number of deaths in 2025. Sudden improvements seem unlikely given the current date and circumstances.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional insights into international diplomatic engagements, levels of international aid being effectively delivered, and in-depth regional security assessments would refine the forecast more accurately.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Any significant peace talks that mitigate the conflict, a dramatic increase in international peacekeeping efforts, or improved humanitarian aid conditions might considerably reduce the projected death toll.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued conflict between SAF and RSF in Sudan throughout 2025 with a magnitude similar to or greater than in previous years – likely
– Lack of significant peace agreements or ceasefires being reached during the remainder of 2025 – possible
– Continued challenges in humanitarian aid delivery and exacerbation of health crises – likely
– Persistent ethnic violence, particularly in Darfur, contributing to death toll – likely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.03, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.08, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.18, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.35, “More than 12000”: 0.35] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.35, “More than 12000”: 0.14] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.24, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.25] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.052222222222222, Max: 0.14
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>
Model value:
* Less than 1,000: 1%
* Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
* Between 3,000 and 5,000: 14%
* Between 5,000 and 8,000: 23%
* Between 8,000 and 12,000: 33%
* More than 12,000: 24%
The ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan has led to significant violence and humanitarian crises from 2023 through 2024, with no immediate signs of resolution. Historical data suggests a high death toll that could persist into 2025 due to continued fighting, ethnic violence particularly in Darfur, and a lack of effective peace agreements or ceasefires. The collapse of healthcare, displacement of millions, and severe humanitarian conditions further exacerbate the situation. However, this dire prediction could be altered if significant peace talks occur, international intervention escalates, or if there’s an improvement in humanitarian aid and conditions. Additionally, shifts in military advantage or external political changes might influence the conflict dynamics and resulting death tolls.
Runtime: 141 seconds.
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.
Source: VIEWS machine forecasting competition
