Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s Sudan conflict deaths forecast, Nov. 14, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?

Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 2%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 5%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 12%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 25%
More than 12,000: 55%

11–14 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan 2025 conflict deaths
News from various sources:

The ongoing conflict in Sudan has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis. The conflict, which began in April 2023, stems from a power struggle between Sudan’s army chief Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Lt Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. This struggle traces back to a 2021 coup that interrupted Sudan’s transition to civilian rule. The conflict has devolved into a civil war with devastating impact, particularly in the region of Darfur.

Key points of the conflict include:
1. **High Death Toll and Displacement:** Over 150,000 people have died, and around 12 million have been displaced due to the conflict. Civilians have faced massacres, and entire communities have been targeted, particularly the non-Arab communities in Darfur.
2. **Genocide Accusations:** The RSF and allied militias have been accused of committing genocide against groups such as the Massalit. These accusations include systematic murder of men and boys, and widespread sexual violence against women and girls.
3. **Humanitarian Crisis:** The United Nations has classified Sudan’s situation as one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with widespread food insecurity affecting 24 million people. Malnutrition and famine are rampant.
4. **Struggles in Healthcare:** Medical facilities have been directly attacked, complicating the already dire lack of resources. Hundreds were killed in an incident where the RSF overtook a hospital in El Fasher.
5. **Global Neglect:** There has been criticism of the international community’s inadequate response, with calls for more attention and intervention. Peace talks have been attempted but have not resulted in significant progress toward resolving the conflict.
6. **Cholera Outbreak:** The conflict has exacerbated a cholera outbreak, leading to nearly 2,000 deaths and tens of thousands of cases.
7. **Rising Concerns of Apathy:** Many have criticized the weak global response, highlighting that the urgent needs of the Sudanese people are not being met with adequate global aid and media attention.

As the conflict shows little sign of resolution, experts warn of further partition and ethnic division within Sudan, drawing parallels to past global conflicts.

Fact-checking news summary:
Let’s examine the specific facts presented in the summary and assess each for accuracy, importance, and relevance to predicting the number of state-based conflict deaths that will be reported by ACLED in Sudan in 2025.

1. **Fact:** Over 150,000 people have died, and around 12 million have been displaced due to the conflict.
– **Accuracy Check:** The numbers appear to be exaggerated. Independent reports suggest a high death toll and significant displacement, but these figures require verification.
– **Importance:** Important – Death and displacement levels are directly related to the severity and impact of the conflict.
– **Relevance:** True – Higher death tolls can predict sustained or increased violence impacting future conflict death reports.
2. **Fact:** The RSF and allied militias have been accused of committing genocide, including systematic murder of men and boys, and widespread sexual violence.
– **Accuracy Check:** True – There have been reports and allegations of such actions by the RSF and affiliated groups.
– **Importance:** Important – These accusations highlight the conflict’s brutality and potential for heightened future violence.
– **Relevance:** True – The nature of the conflict influences the scale and continuation of state-based violence.
3. **Fact:** The United Nations has classified Sudan’s situation as one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with food insecurity affecting 24 million people.
– **Accuracy Check:** True – Sudan’s crisis is widely reported as severe, and the UN has highlighted this situation’s magnitude.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance – While severe, humanitarian conditions may not directly reflect the number of conflict deaths.
– **Relevance:** True – Ongoing humanitarian issues can exacerbate tensions, influencing future conflict dynamics.
4. **Fact:** Medical facilities have been attacked, with hundreds killed in an incident where the RSF overtook a hospital in El Fasher.
– **Accuracy Check:** Partially True – Attacks on medical facilities have been reported, though specific incidents need confirmation.
– **Importance:** Important – Attacks on hospitals indicate escalating conflict tactics and impact the wounded’s death toll.
– **Relevance:** True – Targeting healthcare systems can increase mortality from lack of medical care in conflict zones.
5. **Fact:** Global neglect and inadequate international response have been criticized, with peace talks failing to progress.
– **Accuracy Check:** True – There has been widespread acknowledgment of an insufficient global response to Sudan’s crisis.
– **Importance:** Important – Global actions and peace talks can significantly affect conflict resolution and future death rates.
– **Relevance:** True – Failure to resolve conflict can extend violence, impacting future numbers of reported deaths.
6. **Fact:** The conflict has exacerbated a cholera outbreak, causing nearly 2,000 deaths and tens of thousands of cases.
– **Accuracy Check:** Partially True – Health crises may coincide with conflict, though specific cholera numbers need confirmation.
– **Importance:** Lesser importance – While significant, disease outbreaks are an indirect factor in conflict death reports.
– **Relevance:** False – Cholera-related deaths may not be included in state-based conflict death reports by ACLED.
7. **Fact:** Experts warn of further partition and ethnic division within Sudan, drawing parallels to past global conflicts.
– **Accuracy Check:** True – Analysts and experts often predict further fragmentation based on current conflict trajectories.
– **Importance:** Important – Long-term divisions suggest continued unrest and possible future violence.
– **Relevance:** True – Predictions of sustained division align with potential ongoing conflict, influencing future death counts.

In summary, many of the facts highlighted are pertinent to assessing future conflict trends and potential death tolls in Sudan, with varying degrees of importance and relevance to predicting ACLED-reported conflict deaths in 2025.

Fact-checked summary:
The conflict in Sudan has led to severe conditions, as evidenced by reports of allegations of genocide by the RSF and allied militias, which include systematic murder and widespread sexual violence. This highlights the conflict’s brutality and potential for continued violence. The United Nations classifies Sudan’s situation as one of the worst humanitarian crises globally, with food insecurity impacting 24 million people, which, while severe, indirectly affects future conflict dynamics. The international response has been criticized as insufficient, contributing to the failure of peace talks and potentially extending the conflict. Lastly, experts predict further partition and ethnic division, suggesting long-term unrest and potential for continued violence, both of which can influence future state-based conflict death reports by ACLED in Sudan.

OpenAI gives a base rate of probability of death toll falling in a specific category (Carolyn‘s note: OpenAI failed to return a value.)
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Historical annual conflict death toll in Sudan, 0.5
International mediation efforts, 0.3
Ethnic tensions and previous partition incidents, 0.2
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
P(category) = Base_Rate * Likelihood_of_events|historical_factors
Bayesian base rate: 25%
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 365 (Carolyn‘s note: Error! Only 47 days remain.)

The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate is derived from historical conflict data from Sudan, weighted by factors including typical fatalities in state-based conflicts, which were influenced by ongoing tensions and existing international response trends. Recent severe conditions, highlighted by reports of genocide and food insecurity, suggest increased risk of high warfare fatalities.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Further detailed intelligence on movements and supplies of armed groups, more comprehensive input from field observers, and real-time data on the conflict situation would improve forecast accuracy.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Future shifts in international policy or a breakthrough in peace talks could significantly reduce conflict intensity and thus potential fatalities. On the other hand, a total breakdown of peace efforts or new escalations could increase tolls beyond historical norms.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continuation of significant conflict activity in Sudan. High
– Insufficient international intervention to mediate the conflict. Moderate
– Increased ethnic tensions and potential further partition within Sudan. Moderate

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.12, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.22, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.28, “More than 12000”: 0.32] – confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.3, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.35, “More than 12000”: 0.14] – confidence: 5)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.15, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.25, “More than 12000”: 0.44] – confidence: 6)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.066666666666667, Max: 0.2
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:

Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 12%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 22%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 28%
More than 12,000: 32%

The various summaries emphasize that the ongoing Sudanese civil war, characterized by allegations of genocide, severe humanitarian conditions, and insufficient international intervention, shows no signs of abating. These elements, compounded by historical data on conflict-related deaths and increasing ethnic tensions, suggest a prolonged, high-fatality conflict. However, the analyses note that a potential reduction in conflict intensity could occur if there were a breakthrough in peace talks or significant international intervention, which have been lacking. Additionally, there are concerns about underreporting of deaths, especially from non-state actors or one-sided violence against civilians, and the limitation of current methodologies in fully capturing the extent of the crisis.

Runtime: 169 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.