How many seats will the Conservative Party win in Canada’s April 28, 2025 parliamentary election?
Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman‘s Multi-AI Oracle forecasts today:
* less than 172: 65%
* between 172 and 205: 25%
* between 206 and 240: 9%
* more than 240: 1%
Carolyn’s note: The Conservative Party must win at least 172 seats to gain control of the Parliament without needing to build a coalition with one of the smaller parties.
Here’s how his Multi-AI Oracle says it arrived at these probabilities:
Obtaining outside data. Checking internet sources, using keywords: Conservative Party Canada election. Results from around the web:
{think}
Okay, let’s tackle this query about the Canada Conservative Party election. The user wants current web results from news sites, Wikipedia, party websites, and prediction markets, along with tables of relevant data and time series if applicable.
First, I need to check the provided search results. The most recent sources are from April 17-18, 2025. The Wikipedia entry [1] gives an overview of the election date, parties, and their platforms. The Politico article [2] discusses the current state of the race, focusing on the Trump factor and how it’s turned the election into a two-party contest between Liberals and Conservatives. The Toronto City News piece [3] highlights key races, which is useful for understanding where the Conservatives might gain or lose seats. The Vancouver Sun [4] breaks down party positions on 12 issues, which is great for policy comparisons. The SFU link [5] has historical election data, but the user asked for current info, so maybe not as relevant. The other sources [6-10] seem unrelated or about AI research, so I can ignore those.
The user also wants tables. The Wikipedia result [1] has a results table with seat counts and popular vote percentages. The Politico article [2] mentions polling averages but doesn’t provide specific numbers. However, search result [9] from the debates commission has a detailed table of polling data from various firms, which shows the Conservative Party’s average at 36.877%. That’s a crucial table to include.
For time series data, the Vancouver Sun [4] doesn’t have historical trends, but the SFU link [5] has past election results. However, since the user asked for current data, maybe focus on the latest polls from [9]. The period here would be March 2025, with polling averages over different dates. The change from previous periods isn’t explicit, but comparing the polls over March shows the Conservatives holding steady around 36-38%.
Prediction markets: The query mentions Kalshi, Metaculus, etc., but none of the provided search results include those. The arXiv links [6,8] discuss forecasting benchmarks but aren’t specific to the Canadian election. So I can note that no prediction market data was found in the provided sources.
In summary, the key points are the election context, policy platforms (especially tax cuts and housing), key races where Conservatives are competitive, polling averages showing a close race with Liberals, and the absence of prediction market data. The tables from [1] and [9] will be essential to include. Need to structure the answer with sections on election overview, Conservative platform, key races, polling data, and note the lack of prediction market info. Make sure to cite the sources properly and format the tables correctly.
The 2025 Canadian federal election, scheduled for April 28, has become a two-way contest between the Conservative Party (CPC) and Liberal Party (LPC), with recent polling showing a tight race. Below is a structured analysis based on current information:
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### Election Context
The snap election follows Prime Minister Mark Carney’s request to dissolve parliament on March 23, 2025[1]. The campaign has been dominated by economic tensions with the U.S. under President Donald Trump, with both major parties framing themselves as best equipped to defend Canadian interests[2]. Smaller parties like the NDP and Bloc Québécois risk irrelevance, with polls suggesting a collapse in support[2][9].
—
### Conservative Party Platform Highlights
**Economic Policies**:
– Reduce lowest income tax bracket from 15% to **12.75%** (vs. Liberals’ proposed 14%)[1][4]
– Increase basic personal exemption for working seniors by $10,000
– Raise TFSA contribution limits by $5,000 for investments in Canadian businesses
**Housing**:
– Eliminate GST on new home purchases under $1.3M (broader than Liberals’ first-time buyer exemption under $1M)[1]
– Pay municipalities half the cost of reduced development charges
**Energy & Environment**:
– Repeal carbon tax on industry
– Fast-track resource projects by replacing Impact Assessment Act[1]
**Criminal Justice**:
– Impose life sentences for repeat offenders of human trafficking/fentanyl crimes
– Ban drug consumption sites near schools/parks[4]
—
### Key Battleground Races
—
### Recent Polling Averages (March – April 2025)
*Source: Aggregate of 12 major pollsters[9]*
—
###
Absence of Prediction Market Data
No explicit references to prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket were found in available sources. Current analysis relies solely on polling and policy comparisons.
—
This election marks a potential realignment toward a two-party system federally, with the CPC (Conservatgive Party of Canada) seeking to capitalize on affordability concerns while the LPC (Liberal Party of Canada) emphasizes Trump-era economic defenses[2][9]. Key western urban ridings like Calgary Skyview and Edmonton Gateway will test Conservative resilience in traditional strongholds[3].
OpenAI gives a base rate of unlikely to win at least 120 seats given current data, details below.
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: reference_class
Expected time (days) until question close: 10
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate: The base rate is determined by historical election data and recent polling averages showing Conservatives with around 36.88% of support, which projects them likely to secure around 120 seats, well below the 172-205 range.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional prediction market data could provide insights into market expectations. Furthermore, demographic shifts or changes in voter turnout could significantly impact the election results, which are not fully captured by current polling.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Should there be a last-minute surge in support for the Conservatives driven by changing economic or political climate, or errors in current polling data, the outcome could diverge from the projected seat counts.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The Conservative Party winning between 172 and 205 seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election Unlikely
– Key battleground ridings swinging in favor of the Conservatives Possible
– Conservative policy platform resonating with undecided voters Unlikely
– Shift in polling trends favoring the Conservatives significantly as election approaches Unlikely
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.65, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.09, “more than 240”: 0.01] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.65, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.09, “more than 240”: 0.01] – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“less than 172”: 0.6, “between 172 and 205”: 0.25, “between 206 and 240”: 0.1, “more than 240”: 0.05] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.016666666666667, Max: 0.033333333333333
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* less than 172: 65%
* between 172 and 205: 25%
* between 206 and 240: 9%
* more than 240: 1%
The analysis of various AIs concurs that the Conservative Party is currently projected to win around 120 seats based on polling data that places their support at 36.88%. This is significantly lower than the targeted range of 172 to 205 seats. Historical election trends and the current political landscape, including competitive battleground ridings and stable polling trends, suggest limited potential for significant Conservative gains. Nonetheless, there are factors that could lead to an underestimation of Conservative success, such as potential polling errors, unanticipated shifts due to new campaign developments, or changes in voter sentiment in the lead-up to the election. These factors, for instance, might include a sudden downturn in Liberal support or unique regional influences that polling misses, possibly reshaping voter dynamics just before the elections.
Guide to Jeremy’s Bots Reports (These don’t all apply to the current version of his bot.)
MAPD: Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation calculates the average percentage difference between actual values and predicted values, providing a relative measure of error.
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
