Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s Sudan conflict deaths forecast, Sept. 22, 2025

How many state-based conflict deaths in Sudan will be reported by ACLED for 2025?

Here’s what Jeremy Lichtman’s Multi-AI Oracle predicts today:

Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 12%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 24%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 34%
More than 12,000: 24%

10–13 minutes read

Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan 2025 conflict deaths
News from various sources:

The conflict in Sudan, particularly in the Darfur region, has escalated significantly, with widespread civilian casualties and a deepening humanitarian crisis. In 2025, violence between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues unabated, with the RSF launching a deadly drone attack on a mosque in El Fasher, killing over 70 people. This attack is part of a prolonged siege on the city, leading to severe shortages of food and medical supplies, and forcing many residents into dire circumstances.

The UN has reported a dramatic increase in civilian deaths, noting that 3,384 civilians were killed in the first half of 2025, surpassing 80% of the total civilian casualties for the whole of 2024. The ongoing conflict, which began in April 2023, has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced approximately 12 million people. The situation is described as one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with famine and disease rampant, particularly affecting women and children.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has condemned these attacks, urging a halt to violence against civilians and calling for a resolution through internal dialogue. Meanwhile, the UN and other international organizations have emphasized the urgent need for a ceasefire and safe corridors for humanitarian aid, as the blockade and continued conflict threaten to exacerbate an already catastrophic situation in Sudan and its region.

Humanitarian efforts are hampered by limited access to affected areas and inadequate funding, as global aid diminishes. The World Food Programme has projected significant reductions in its outreach due to budget shortfalls, potentially leaving millions without critical support. The international community is urged to respond swiftly to prevent further escalation and avert a wider disaster.

Fact-checking news summary:
Below is a list of specific facts extracted from the summary, along with their correctness, importance, and relevance to the outcome:
1. **Fact:** The conflict in Sudan, particularly in the Darfur region, has escalated significantly, with widespread civilian casualties and a deepening humanitarian crisis.
– Correctness: True
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
2. **Fact:** In 2025, violence between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues unabated.
– Correctness: Internally consistent but speculative for 2025.
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
3. **Fact:** The RSF launched a deadly drone attack on a mosque in El Fasher, killing over 70 people.
– Correctness: Unable to verify, speculative for 2025.
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
4. **Fact:** The attack on the mosque is part of a prolonged siege on the city, leading to severe shortages of food and medical supplies.
– Correctness: Unable to verify, speculative for 2025.
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
5. **Fact:** The UN reported 3,384 civilian deaths in the first half of 2025.
– Correctness: Unable to verify, speculative for 2025.
– Importance: Critical
– Relevance: True
6. **Fact:** 3,384 deaths surpass 80% of the total civilian casualties for the whole of 2024.
– Correctness: Internally consistent, but specific numbers are speculative for 2025.
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
7. **Fact:** The conflict began in April 2023 and has claimed tens of thousands of lives.
– Correctness: True for start date; estimated death total is plausible.
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
8. **Fact:** Approximately 12 million people have been displaced due to the conflict.
– Correctness: Speculative figure, high but plausible.
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
9. **Fact:** The situation is described as one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with famine and disease rampant, particularly affecting women and children.
– Correctness: True
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
10. **Fact:** The Iranian Foreign Ministry has condemned the attacks and urged a halt to violence.
– Correctness: True, but speculative for 2025.
– Importance: Lesser
– Relevance: False, in terms of death count prediction.
11. **Fact:** The UN and other international organizations emphasize the urgent need for a ceasefire and safe corridors for humanitarian aid.
– Correctness: True
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
12. **Fact:** Humanitarian efforts are hampered by limited access to affected areas and inadequate funding.
– Correctness: True
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
13. **Fact:** The World Food Programme has projected significant reductions in its outreach due to budget shortfalls.
– Correctness: True
– Importance: Important
– Relevance: True
14. **Fact:** The international community is urged to respond swiftly to prevent further escalation and avert a wider disaster.
– Correctness: True
– Importance: Lesser
– Relevance: False, in terms of death count prediction.
Note: The speculative nature of the 2025 scenario means that while the internal consistency of the summary is maintained, verifying specific figures for 2025 is not possible.

Fact-checked summary:
The conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has escalated significantly, particularly affecting the Darfur region, resulting in tens of thousands of lives lost, widespread civilian casualties, and a deepening humanitarian crisis, including famine and disease impacting women and children. Described as one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, the situation has led to the displacement of approximately 12 million people. Humanitarian efforts are hindered by limited access to affected areas and inadequate funding, with the World Food Programme projecting significant reductions in outreach due to budget constraints. The United Nations and other international organizations have stressed the urgent need for a ceasefire and safe corridors for humanitarian aid, emphasizing the severity of the crisis.

OpenAI gives a base rate of Between 8,000 and 12,000
The question difficulty is rated 7 (0 to 10)
Historical weighted factors include:
Previous mortality rates in similar conflicts, 0.4
Current humanitarian access levels, 0.3
International intervention efforts, 0.2
Seasonal impacts on conflict regions, 0.1
A Bayesian calculation could be performed as follows:
Using the historical factors, I applied weights based on their impact levels, resulting in an updated probability estimate. I adjusted the base rate of 0.65 using Bayesian updating as new evidence from humanitarian access and intervention efforts pushes likelihood towards the upper bound of 8000 to 12000 range, accounting for recent news.
Bayesian base rate: 0.75 (Carolyn‘s note: In cases where the Multi-AI Oracle is only forecasting a single percent probability, this Bayesian rate is easy to understand. But in this case, with five probability buckets, this apparently is an overall fudge factor across all buckets.)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 180
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was determined by assessing historical mortality rates from similar conflicts, the reported impact of current humanitarian conditions, and the potential for exceeding displacement estimates. The historical data indicates conflicts of this duration and severity typically result in high casualty figures.

Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Information on changes in peace negotiations, any new international sanctions or support, and real-time updates on humanitarian corridor openings would refine the forecast. Additionally, health infrastructure status would offer insights into disease impact.

Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate:
Potential for rapid de-escalation or increased aid could shift the resolution significantly lower. Conversely, worsened access to humanitarian aid or escalation could push the number above estimates.

The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Continued violence and conflict in Sudan worsening the humanitarian crisis Highly likely
– Further displacement of people, potentially exceeding current estimates Likely
– Insufficient international response leading to significant mortality increase Moderately likely
– Continued obstruction of humanitarian aid access Very likely
– No significant change in peace negotiations or intervention outcomes Moderately likely

Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.12, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.22, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.35, “More than 12000”: 0.25] – confidence: 6)

Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.4, “More than 12000”: 0.14] – confidence: 6)

Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.24, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.35, “More than 12000”: 0.25] – confidence: 7)

Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
MAPD: Avg: 0.026666666666667, Max: 0.073333333333333
# LLM responses: 3
Explanations of the above statistical measures here —>

Model value:
Less than 1,000: 1%
Between 1,000 and 3,000: 5%
Between 3,000 and 5,000: 12%
Between 5,000 and 8,000: 24%
Between 8,000 and 12,000: 34%
More than 12,000: 24%

The various AI-generated analyses highlight the severe and escalating conflict in Sudan, particularly since April 2023, with a significant humanitarian crisis characterized by tens of thousands of deaths and massive displacement. Key factors contributing to the continued high casualty rate include prolonged violence in the Darfur region, limited humanitarian aid access, insufficient international support, and historical patterns of similar conflicts. Predictions estimate 8,000 to 12,000 deaths based on these conditions, though escalation could increase numbers. There is also acknowledgment that the situation could change if there were de-escalation efforts such as peace negotiations, better humanitarian aid access, or international intervention altering the conflict dynamics. Uncertain data reliability and possible shifts to non-state conflict could further complicate accurate mortality assessments.

Runtime: 164 seconds.

Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>

Below, a forecast of state-based conflict fatalities for Sudan in the VIEWS machine forecasting competition, which is an aggregate of the forecasts of twenty machine learning competitors. Our botmasters, Phil Godzin and Jeremy Lichtman, are conducting a side experiment in collaboration with VIEWS. The VIEWS aggregate forecast is much lower than ours.