Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in the month of May 2025?
Phillip Godzin’s pgodzinai predicts 15%
Here’s how it reached this answer:
Perplexity response:
{think}
Okay, let’s start by understanding the user’s question. They want to know if there will be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in May 2025. The background mentions looking for recent news and authoritative sources.
First, I need to go through the provided search results to gather information. Let’s check each source.
Result [1] from Times of Israel, dated May 6, 2025, says Hamas has stated there’s no point in further truce talks if Israel continues their “hunger war.” The IDF is planning an intensified operation, Operation Gideon’s Chariots, aiming to defeat Hamas and return hostages. China and the UN have expressed concerns. This suggests tensions are escalating, not easing.
Result [2] from Axios, May 5, 2025, mentions Israel’s plan to occupy Gaza if no deal is reached by Trump’s visit (May 15). They want a partial deal for a 45-60 day ceasefire in exchange for hostages. Hamas is asking for a comprehensive deal. The displacement plan is severe, and international reaction is negative. This indicates internal Israeli willingness but Hamas resistance.
Result [3] is a YouTube video summary from CNA, May 6, 2025, reinforcing Hamas’s rejection of talks and Israel’s planned offensive. The UN is alarmed, again pointing to no ceasefire.
Result [4] is a State Department briefing from May 1, 2025, but the text doesn’t mention a specific U.S. proposal detail. It might refer to Egypt receiving a proposal, but the snippet is cut off.
Result [5] from Wikipedia, updated May 5, 2025, notes a ceasefire broke in March 2025 after Israel resumed shelling. Hamas’s historical truce offers (hudna) are mentioned, but recent context from 2025 shows the current truce already failed.
Putting this together, recent articles (May 5-6) show Hamas rejecting talks due to Israel’s actions, Israel planning a major offensive by May 15 if no deal, and international condemnation. Previous ceasefire broke in March. The U.S. (via State) might have a proposal, but details are unclear. Given the deadlines and Israel’s ultimatum tied to Trump’s visit, the likelihood of a May ceasefire seems low, especially with Hamas’s refusal and Israel’s military plans.
**Recent Developments in Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Prospects**
### **Key Sources (Most Recent First)**
1. **[Times of Israel] (https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-says-no-point-in-further-gaza-truce-talks-if-israel-continues-hunger-war/)** (May 6, 2025)
– Hamas rejects further truce talks, citing Israel’s “hunger war.”
– Israel’s IDF plans Operation Gideon’s Chariots to “conquer Gaza,” displace civilians, and destroy Hamas infrastructure[1].
– China and the UN condemn Israel’s actions, warning of humanitarian crises[1].
2. **[Axios] (https://www.axios.com/2025/05/05/israel-gaza-destroy-trump-deal)** (May 5, 2025)
– Israel’s Security Cabinet approved a Gaza reoccupation plan if no deal reached by May 15 (aligning with Trump’s visit).
– Proposes a 45–60 day ceasefire for hostage release, but Hamas demands a comprehensive deal.
– Displacement plans involve forcing 2 million Palestinians into a “humanitarian zone” or “voluntarily” relocating[2].
3. **[YouTube (CNA)] (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66WdDuVJjyg)** (May 6, 2025)
– Hamas declares talks pointless, accusing Israel of war crimes.
– IDF aims to “conquer Gaza” and hold territory until Hamas is defeated.
– UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urges an immediate ceasefire and hostage release[3].
4. **[State Department Briefing] (https://www.state.gov/?post_type=state_briefing&%3Bp=92333)** (May 1, 2025)
– Mentions U.S. proposals for a Gaza ceasefire sent to Egypt, but details are unclear[4].
5. **[Wikipedia] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas)** (Updated May 5, 2025)
– Notes the March 2025 ceasefire breakdown after Israel resumed hostilities.
– Historical context on Hamas’s *hudna* (temporary truce) offers, but current leadership rejects negotiations[5].
—
### **Analysis of May 2025 Ceasefire Likelihood**
– **Israel’s Ultimatum**: A partial ceasefire deal could emerge if hostage releases are secured before May 15, but Israel’s planned ground offensive (Operation Gideon’s Chariots) suggests skepticism about negotiations[1][2].
– **Hamas’s Stance**: Explicit rejection of talks under current conditions, framing Israel’s actions as genocidal[1][3].
– **International Pressure**: China and the UN oppose Israel’s military escalation, but no enforceable multilateral agreement is evident[1][3].
– **U.S. Role**: No active U.S. mediation; Trump’s visit is framed as a deadline for Israeli action rather than a diplomatic catalyst[2].
**Conclusion**: Recent developments heavily favor continued military escalation over a ceasefire in May 2025. Israel’s deadline and Hamas’s refusal diminish prospects, even if limited hostage-related deals emerge.
(Carolyn’s note: For complete details of inputs from the constituent systems of pgodzinai of Perplexity, AskNews Deep Usage, Anthropic, Gemini, and GPT, please click here —>)
Median reasoning:
# Analysis: Will there be a ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025?
## Current Situation Assessment (as of May 7, 2025)
Based on the research information provided, the situation appears highly unfavorable for a ceasefire in May 2025:
1. **Hamas’s explicit rejection of negotiations:**
– Hamas has declared talks “pointless” under current conditions (Times of Israel, May 6)
– They cite Israel’s “hunger war” and blockade as precluding negotiations
– Hamas spokesman Bassem Naïm has stated negotiations are “irrelevant” (France 24, May 6)
2. **Israel’s military escalation:**
– Operation Gideon’s Chariots planned to “conquer Gaza”
– Security Cabinet approved Gaza reoccupation plan if no deal by May 15
– IDF mobilizing reservists and planning civilian displacement
– Netanyahu prioritizing military action over negotiations
3. **Failed mediation efforts:**
– Egypt/Qatar proposed 5-7 year truces with international oversight
– Hamas showed “unprecedented flexibility” but Israel rejected terms
– Previous ceasefire from January 2025 broke down in March 2025
– U.S. proposals sent to Egypt but lacking buy-in from key parties
4. **Trump’s visit timeline:**
– May 15 appears to be a deadline for Israeli action rather than a diplomatic catalyst
– While creating pressure for a potential agreement, the visit may accelerate military action instead
## Timeline Analysis
With only 24 days remaining in May 2025 (from today’s date of May 7):
– **First week of May:** Already shows increased hostilities, Hamas rejection of talks
– **Mid-May (around May 15):** Trump’s visit appears to be a deadline for Israeli action
– **Late May:** Limited time for parties to change positions and negotiate terms
## Historical Precedents
Previous Israel-Hamas ceasefires required:
1. Sufficient military/political pressure on both sides
2. Strong international mediation (typically Egypt, Qatar, U.S.)
3. Achievable demands from both parties
4. Time for negotiations (typically weeks)
The March 2025 ceasefire breakdown creates additional mistrust that must be overcome.
## Factors Supporting a Potential Ceasefire
1. **International pressure** is intensifying (UN, China, France condemning Israel)
2. **Humanitarian catastrophe** could force intervention
3. **Trump’s visit** might create diplomatic opportunities
4. **Egypt’s invitation** to Hamas for talks suggests continued mediation
## Factors Against a Ceasefire
1. **Hamas’s explicit rejection** of negotiations under current conditions
2. **Israel’s military preparations** indicate commitment to offensive
3. **Netanyahu’s stance** on destroying Hamas rather than negotiating
4. **Lack of trust** following previous ceasefire breakdown in March
5. **Limited remaining time** in May (only 24 days remain)
6. **Hardened positions** on both sides with incompatible demands
## Probability Assessment
Given the analysis above:
– The default trajectory leads to continued military escalation, not ceasefire
– Both parties have publicly committed to positions incompatible with immediate ceasefire
– Mediators have been unable to bridge the gap
– Previous ceasefire attempts have failed recently (March 2025)
– The mid-May Trump visit creates a deadline that could accelerate conflict
– The humanitarian crisis may eventually force negotiations, but the timeline likely extends beyond May
Considering the short timeframe remaining in May, the explicit rejections of talks by Hamas, and Israel’s planned military operations, a ceasefire declaration in May appears highly unlikely. While international pressure continues and mediators haven’t abandoned efforts, the conditions for successful negotiations don’t appear to exist currently.
Based on all available evidence, I estimate the probability of a ceasefire being declared between Israel and Hamas in May 2025 at:
Probability: 15%
Past forecasts by Phil’s and Jeremy ’s bots —>
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
Guide to Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports (some of these only apply to older versions)
Bayesian calculation: a mathematical technique that helps determine the conditional probability of an event based on prior knowledge and new evidence.
MAPD: Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation calculates the average percentage difference between actual values and predicted values, providing a relative measure of error.
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
