How many conflict deaths will there be in Sudan in 2025?
Jeremy’s most recent version of his Multi-AI Oracle is a side competitor with the machine forecasting bots of the VIEWS competition.
Obtaining outside data.
Checking internet sources, using keywords: Sudan conflict 2025
Results from around the web:
Looking at the search results provided, there are several sources. The first few are from CFR, Crisis Group, ACLED, Human Rights Watch, and Wikipedia. These seem to be the most relevant. The others, like the arXiv papers and podcast links, don’t directly relate to Sudan’s conflict, so I can probably ignore those.
Starting with the first result from CFR, it mentions intensified fighting in Khartoum in early 2025, SAF retaking areas like Omdurman and an oil refinery. There’s also info about RSF creating a parallel government in Nairobi. The Crisis Group source talks about the SAF gaining momentum and the RSF expanding the war. ACLED mentions the SAF’s offensives and the humanitarian crisis. Human Rights Watch details war crimes and the spread of conflict to North Darfur. The Wikipedia entries provide a timeline and casualty figures.
I need to summarize these key points. The user also wants tables. From the search results, the Wikipedia pages have military situation tables as of April 2025. For example, Controlled areas by SAF and RSF, participants, casualties. I should extract that data into a markdown table.
Time series data is a bit trickier. The search results mention events in January, February, March, April 2025. Maybe create a timeline table with dates and events. However, the user also asked for statistical measures like mean, median, etc. Since the data is mostly qualitative events, maybe focus on quantitative data like casualties. For example, ACLED reports over 28,700 fatalities by November 2024, Human Rights Watch mentions 25 million facing food insecurity. But these are single data points, so time series might not be feasible. Instead, present the available stats in a table.
Also, check if any prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket are mentioned. The search results have a mention of Polymarket in the Astral Codex Ten podcast, but that’s about election predictions, not Sudan. So no relevant prediction market data found.
Putting it all together: a summary of the conflict’s current status in 2025, key events, humanitarian impact, international involvement, and data tables from Wikipedia and other sources. Ensure citations are correctly added after each relevant sentence. Make sure to follow the formatting rules, using headers, lists, and tables where appropriate without nesting lists. Avoid starting with a header, and keep the tone unbiased and journalistic.
The Sudan conflict in 2025 remains a complex and devastating war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marked by shifting territorial control, humanitarian crises, and internationalization. Below is a synthesis of recent developments and key data:
—
### **Current Military Situation (April 2025)**
– **SAF Advances**: The SAF has retaken strategic areas in greater Khartoum, including Omdurman, Bahri, and a vital oil refinery north of the capital[1][4]. In February 2025, they ended the RSF’s two-year siege of Obeid and regained control of Wad Madani[5][7].
– **RSF Strategy**: The RSF has shifted focus to Darfur and launched offensives in North Darfur and Sudan’s southeast. They retain control of El Fasher in Darfur, where attacks on non-Arab groups have raised genocide concerns[1][10].
– **Foreign Involvement**: The SAF receives drones from Iran and fighter jets from Russia/Egypt, while the RSF is backed by the UAE[1][4][7]. Sudan has accused the UAE of complicity in genocide at the International Court of Justice[1].
—
### **Humanitarian Impact**
– **Displacement**: Over 10.8 million internally displaced persons and 8.1 million refugees[10].
– **Famine**: Acute food insecurity affects 25 million people, with famine confirmed in Darfur’s Abu Shouk camp[10].
– **War Crimes**: Both sides face accusations of indiscriminate bombing, sexual violence, and targeting hospitals. The RSF is implicated in mass executions and looting aid[10].
—
### **Political Developments**
– **Parallel Government**: The RSF signed a charter in Nairobi (February 2025) outlining plans for a secular, decentralized post-war government[1][5].
– **Negotiations Stalled**: The SAF demands RSF withdrawal from civilian sites as a precondition for talks, while the RSF rejects concessions[4][7].
—
### **Key Data Tables**
#### **Military Control (as of April 2025)**
#### **Casualties and Displacement**
### **Timeline of Major Events (2025)**
### **Statistical Overview**
Quantitative data from ACLED and Human Rights Watch highlight the conflict’s severity:
– **Fatalities**: 28,700+ reported by November 2024[7].
– **Healthcare Attacks**: 14 hospitals bombed or occupied since 2023[10].
– **Foreign Arms**: 15 Russian/Egyptian fighter jets delivered to SAF (August 2024)[7].
The conflict shows no signs of abating, with both sides prioritizing military victory over negotiations. International actors like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE continue to fuel the war through arms and funding, deepening regional instability[4][7].
OpenAI gives a base rate of percentage (It failed to return a value).
The question difficulty is rated 8 (0 to 10)
Sufficient news to provide a good forecast? 1 (0 or 1)
News is relevant, topical and unbiased? 1 (0 or 1)
Question classification: scenario_based_forecast
Expected time (days) until question close: 180
(Carolyn’s note: The Multi-AI Oracle has trouble counting.)
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate was assessed considering the likelihood of achieving the necessary events for resolution, historical instances of similar conflicts resolving, and the current intensity and internationalization of the conflict.
Ideally, the news feed would contain the following sorts of information for a better forecast:
Additional data on the internal political dynamics within SAF and RSF, insights into the strategy of foreign powers involved, and real-time tracking of humanitarian conditions would enhance the forecasting accuracy.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Factors such as increased foreign intervention, unexpected political changes in Sudan or neighboring countries, or a significant shift in military tactics could alter the base rate.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively: (Carolyn’s note: The bot is interpreting “positively” as meaning an end of the civil war in 2025.)
– The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) achieve complete military control over major cities like Khartoum and Omdurman. Low
– The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) establish a sustainable parallel government or gain international recognition. Very Low
– A significant diplomatic intervention or effective peace negotiations mediated by international powers. Moderate
– A halt to foreign backing for both SAF and RSF leading to reduced military engagement. Low
– Achievement of a sustained ceasefire agreed upon by both SAF and RSF. Moderate
Querying Claude (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.15, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.25] – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.04, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.25, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.3, “More than 12000”: 0.3] – confidence: 5)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: [“Less than 1000”: 0.01, “Between 1000 and 3000”: 0.05, “Between 3000 and 5000”: 0.1, “Between 5000 and 8000”: 0.2, “Between 8000 and 12000”: 0.29, “More than 12000”: 0.35] – confidence: 6)
Question Type: Multiple Choice
Confidence: 6
# LLM responses: 3
Model value:
* Less than 1000: 1% (Carolyn’s note: Although currently there are reports of over 1000 fatalities in 2025 so far, sometimes these numbers are adjusted downward due to new information)
* Between 1000 and 3000: 5%
* Between 3000 and 5000: 10%
* Between 5000 and 8000: 25%
* Between 8000 and 12000: 29%
* More than 12000: 30%
The ongoing conflict in Sudan, primarily between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), remains intense, with significant fatalities reported, particularly in regions such as Khartoum and Darfur. The conflict is characterized by military gains by both sides, sustained foreign support, and unsuccessful peace negotiations, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis with high casualty rates predicted to continue into 2025. However, potential factors could alter this grim outlook, such as successful peace agreements, international diplomatic interventions, or a shift in external support dynamics. Moreover, improved humanitarian access and support may mitigate the conflict’s impact by reducing indirect deaths and resource exhaustion could decrease the intensity of fighting.
Past forecasts on Sudan’s conflict fatalities —>
Guide to Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports (some of these only apply to older versions)
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Revers
Background on VIEWS: Near the end of 2024, the latest forecasting competition of the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was launched. On Dec. 4, 2024, during a telecon, a group of machine forecasting experts involved in VIEWS observed Jeremy’s demonstration of his Multi-AI Oracle. Although it was too late for Jeremy to sign up as a VIEWS competitor, they urged him to run a side competition for everyone’s benefit. Jeremy chose their Sudan conflict deaths question.
Background on the Sudan conflict, as evaluated by the team of Jeremy Lichtman and Carolyn Meinel:
(1) The importance of the Sahel, a region in Africa that includes Sudan:
Why the Sahel Actually Matters (Possibly To You, Too)
(2) April 29, 2024: Today, a Russian diplomat is negotiating gold mining with the Sudanese Minister of Minerals.
(3) June 3, 2024: Today the African Union Announced Plans to Mediate in Sudan’s Civil War
(4) Sept. 11, 2024 Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
Carolyn has checked Sudan’s news sites below to ensure that they are still in operation. However, given the widespread violence in Sudan, any of these could go offline without warning.
https://www.alnilin.com/
https://www.alrakoba.net/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/ar/
https://www.altaghyeer.info/en/
https://www.alttahrer.com/
https://www.alzaeemsd.com/
https://www.assayha.net
https://www.cover-sd.com/
https://kushnews.net/
https://rakobanews.com
https://www.sudanakhbar.com/
https://sudanjem.com/
https://suna-sd.net/en
https://sudantimes.net/
https://www.sudantribune.net/
https://www.sudantribune.com/
https://sudaneseonline.com/
https://www.sudanile.com/
https://sudanow-magazine.net/
https://www.sudaress.com/
https://www.tagpress.net/
Below, a screenshot from VIEWS forecasting conflict fatalities in Sudan through January 2028. Below that, satellite images of the devastation in Sudan.
Below, before and after pictures of the devastation of the civil war in Sudan.
