What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Jeremy’s Multi-AI Oracle is forecasting 35%, up from yesterday’s 30%. This contrasts with our staff forecasts, averaging 72.5%.
==============================
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle.
===============================
Question: What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Obtaining outside newsfeed.
Summarizing outside newsfeed.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 3)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 4)
Median from LLMs: 0.35
Base rate: 0.35 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.07
Confidence: 5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.25
Reverse Mellers: 0.42
Beta Distribution: 0.49
# LLM responses: 5
Model value (not submitted): 0.42
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI.
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The proposed merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel is encountering major obstacles due to national security concerns highlighted by the Biden administration and scrutiny from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The review process has been extended, leading to expectations that a decision might not be reached until after the U.S. elections, adding further uncertainty to the timeline. Despite the strong support for the merger from U.S. Steel shareholders, political opposition, including from the United Steelworkers union, and potential government intervention present significant challenges. The complexities and political implications of the merger, coupled with a relatively short timeframe until January 21, 2025, make it likely that the merger will not be announced before this deadline. However, the outlook could change if the involved parties manage to effectively address the national security concerns, or if shifts in the political landscape following the elections create a more favorable environment for the merger.
Runtime: 120 seconds.
Bestworldbot News
Today bestworldbot is #53 out of 54 competitors. A likely explanation for bestworldbot’s huge fall on the leaderboard from #17 on Sept. 10 is that we tried extremizing its forecasts. With most human forecasters, extremizing is usually effective. However, we now believe that extremizing made bestworldbot worse. Oh, well, that’s research, some things work, some don’t.
The Human Team
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel also now are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 78%; Carolyn’s is 70%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 2%, 50%, 28%, and 20%.
Carolyn’s are 1%, 20%, 30%, and 49%.
Below are their forecasting spreadsheets.
Bots vs Staff Forecasts
Oct. 2, 2024
Oct. 1, 2024
Sept. 30, 2024
Sept. 27, 2024
Sept. 26, 2024
Sept. 25, 2024
Sept. 24, 2024
Sept. 23, 2024
Sept. 18, 2024
Sept. 17, 2024
Sept. 16, 2024
Sept. 13, 2024
Sept. 12, 2024
Sept. 11, 2024
Sept. 10, 2024
Sept. 9, 2024
Sept. 6, 2024
Sept. 5, 2024
Sept. 4, 2024
Sept. 3, 2024
Sept. 2, 2024
Aug. 30, 2024
Aug. 29, 2024
Aug. 28, 2024
Aug. 27, 2024
Aug. 26, 2024
Aug. 23, 2024
Aug. 22, 2024
Aug. 21, 2024
Aug. 20, 2024
Aug. 19, 2024
Aug. 16, 2024
Aug. 15, 2024
Aug. 14, 2024
Aug. 13, 2024
Aug. 12, 2024
Aug. 9, 2024
Aug. 8, 2024
Aug. 7, 2024
Aug. 6, 2024
Aug. 5. 2024
Aug. 2, 2024
Aug. 1, 2024
July 31, 2024
July 30, 2024
July 29, 2024
July 26, 2024
July 25, 2024
More about our previous staff vs bot competition here.
Our bots vs humans experiments
Our concluded FED rate increase competition.
All our current bot projects.
