What’s the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 25%, down from Friday’s 37%, but up from the day before that of 20%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The anticipated merger between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel faces potential delays, with regulatory and political challenges likely postponing an official announcement until after January 21, 2025. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States has extended its review until December 2024, underscoring ongoing regulatory hurdles. Politically, the merger is a contentious subject in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris expressing concerns, adding complexity to the approval process. Analysts suggest that the combination of regulatory scrutiny and political factors may delay closing the merger by the end of 2024, contributing to the uncertainty regarding the timeline. As the situation develops, it remains important to approach these reports with caution, recognizing the possibility of unsubstantiated claims or propaganda within the coverage.”
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Resolution of regulatory challenges by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States before December 2024.
– Political resolution or compromise regarding the merger during the 2024 U.S. presidential election period.
– Clearance of any other legal or procedural hurdles preventing the merger before January 21, 2025.
– Reaching an agreement on terms between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel despite existing challenges.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.4 – confidence: 6)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere(Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 4)
Median from LLMs: 0.25
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.09
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.12
Reverse Mellers: 0.37
Theory of Mind: 0.35 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.7
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.25
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI. A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The consensus among the AI analyses is that the likelihood of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025, is low due to significant regulatory and political barriers. The ongoing review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, extended until December 2024, along with the political complexities of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where both President Biden and Vice President Harris have expressed concerns, are key obstacles. These factors suggest that the timeline may exceed the deadline, with unresolved legal and procedural challenges adding to the delays. However, some AI analyses note that unforeseen developments, such as a political shift, diplomatic agreements, or breakthroughs in the regulatory process, could potentially expedite proceedings, though these remain speculative and unlikely in the current context.
Runtime: 171 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 55%, up from Friday’s 35%.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
.”As of October 28, 2024, the dockworkers’ situation involves a temporary suspension of their strike, which allows them to continue working until January 15, 2025, amid ongoing negotiations. This suspension is based on a preliminary agreement that includes wage increases. However, critical issues such as automation and other working conditions remain unresolved, as discussions between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance are set to continue. The union is particularly concerned about the potential threat automation poses to jobs and is pressing for significant wage increases and job protections. There’s a possibility of a strike in Q1 2025 if these negotiations do not satisfactorily address the union’s demands, particularly regarding automation.”
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– The negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance fail to resolve the key issues such as automation and job protections.
– The union does not receive satisfactory assurances or provisions regarding wage increases and job security.
– There is no intervention or new development that prevents the union from proceeding with a strike, such as a governmental or third-party mediation offering an acceptable resolution by January 15, 2025.
Querying Perplexity (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 7)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.65 – confidence: 6)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.6 – confidence: 7)
Querying Cohere(Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.6
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.12
Confidence: 6.5
Conf Mode: Low
Mellers: 0.67
Reverse Mellers: 0.55
Theory of Mind: 0.5 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.01
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.55
We queried Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, OpenAI.
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The temporary suspension of the dockworkers’ strike until January 15, 2025, following a preliminary agreement on wage increases, leaves major issues like automation and job security unresolved. This suggests a moderate likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025, as automation poses a significant threat to job security. Historical patterns of labor disputes and the current economic and political climate further increase the potential for a strike if these critical issues are not satisfactorily addressed. However, there are reasons to believe a strike could still be avoided. Progress made on wage negotiations might foster goodwill, and both parties could be motivated to prevent a strike due to economic pressures and public opinion. Furthermore, government intervention or third-party mediation could facilitate a resolution, and the timeframe allows for negotiations to progress positively before Q1 ends.
Runtime: 134 seconds.
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Bots vs Staff Forecasts
BestWorld’s staff of Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel are forecasting the US Steel/Nippon Steel Merger in competition with Jeremy’s Multri-AI Oracle. Their version has two sub-questions:
(1) Will the US Steel / Nippon Steel merger be approved by the White House before Jan. 21. 2025?” Brian’s latest forecast is 80%; Carolyn’s is 70%. Michal’s is 35%.
(2) If yes, when will US Steel investors relations announce the final outcome of the acquisition with Nippon Steel?
a. Before November 5, 2024
b. Between November 6 and December 31, 2024
c. January 1 to 20, 2024
d. After January 21, 2024
Brian’s latest forecasts are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Carolyn’s are 0%, 20%, 20%, and 60%.
Our spreadsheets below:
Our past forecasts below:
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median from the bestworldbots: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
