What is the probability of the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger being officially announced before January 21, 2025?
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 18%, up from 15% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“The newsfeed presents a series of reports concerning the potential merger between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel and the prospects of its official announcement by January 21, 2025. Various reputable sources convey that the merger is entangled in significant political and regulatory scrutiny. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is currently reviewing the deal due to national security concerns, which may delay any official announcement. Furthermore, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and stakeholders like Cleveland-Cliffs have been vocal about their positions, adding complexity to the situation. Nippon Steel aims to close the deal by the end of 2024, despite facing opposition from labor unions, former President Donald Trump, and potentially political influences involving President Biden. The ongoing review and criticism of its politicization suggest uncertainty over whether the announcement will occur before the target date.”
Fact-checking news summary: Based on the summary, here are the specific facts along with their evaluations:
1. **The merger between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel is entangled in significant political and regulatory scrutiny.**
– **Check:** This is plausible, as large international mergers often face political and regulatory scrutiny.
– **Correct:** True
– **Relevant to Outcome:** True
2. **The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is currently reviewing the deal due to national security concerns.**
– **Check:** CFIUS generally reviews mergers involving foreign entities that could affect U.S. national security, making this situation believable.
– **Correct:** True
– **Relevant to Outcome:** True
3. **Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has been vocal about his position on the merger.**
– **Check:** Shigeru Ishiba is not the current Prime Minister of Japan; as of October 2023, the Prime Minister is Fumio Kishida. This statement is factually incorrect. [Editor’s note: this fact check is erroneous. Shigeru Ishiba IS the current Prime Minister of Japan]
– **Correct:** False
– **Relevant to Outcome:** True (if the Prime Minister’s position impacts the merger)
4. **Stakeholders like Cleveland-Cliffs have been vocal about their positions on the merger.**
– **Check:** It is reasonable that companies like Cleveland-Cliffs, involved in the steel industry, would have a stance on the merger.
– **Correct:** True
– **Relevant to Outcome:** True
5. **Nippon Steel aims to close the deal by the end of 2024.**
– **Check:** Companies involved in mergers often set target dates for deal closure, making this plausible.
– **Correct:** True
– **Relevant to Outcome:** True
6. **There is opposition from labor unions, former President Donald Trump, and potentially political influences involving President Biden.**
– **Check:** Opposition from various entities is common in mergers, though specific involvement by Trump and Biden would require current evidence; however, such political figures can indeed influence perceptions.
– **Correct:** Potentially True (General opposition plausible, specifics about Trump and Biden require more evidence)
– **Relevant to Outcome:** True
7. **The ongoing review and criticism suggest uncertainty over whether the announcement will occur before January 21, 2025.**
– **Check:** This statement logically follows from the described scrutiny and opposition, indicating uncertainty.
– **Correct:** True
– **Relevant to Outcome:** True
Overall, while most facts directly relate to the potential announcement timing of the merger, accuracy in names and roles, like the Prime Minister, requires careful verification.
Fact-checked summary:
The proposed merger between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel faces significant political and regulatory scrutiny, which could impact its timeline. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is reviewing the deal due to national security concerns. Stakeholders like Cleveland-Cliffs have expressed their positions on the merger. Nippon Steel aims to close the deal by the end of 2024. The ongoing review and criticism underscore uncertainty surrounding whether the merger announcement will occur before January 21, 2025.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.25. The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.25 reflects historical precedence where large international mergers facing national security reviews are often delayed or blocked. In this case, CFIUS scrutiny and stakeholder opposition present significant hurdles that have historically been challenging to overcome swiftly. Additionally, the ambitious timeline set by Nippon Steel increases the probability of delays.
Some potential divergent considerations that might effect the base rate:
Factors that could diverge from the base rate include successful lobbying by both companies to alleviate national security concerns and effectively address stakeholder opposition. If significant progress in negotiations or strategic concessions occurs, the likelihood of resolution before the deadline could increase. Conversely, heightened geopolitical tensions or escalated stakeholder opposition could further decrease the probability.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– CFIUS approves the merger despite national security concerns. Unlikely
– Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel address political and regulatory concerns effectively. Uncertain
– Stakeholder objections, including those from Cleveland-Cliffs, are resolved. Possible
– Both companies finalize and announce the merger before January 21, 2025. Possible
Querying Perplexity… (Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude… (Error: Claude is not returning an array)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.15 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere… (Error: Cohere is not returning an array)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.2 – confidence: 5)
Median from LLMs: 0.18
Base rate: 0.25 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.03
Confidence: 5.5
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.1
Reverse Mellers: 0.27
Theory of Mind: 0.3 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 1
Close Type: A (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 2
Model value (not submitted): 0.18
We queried Mistral, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews).
A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The prediction concerning the merger between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel hinges on several critical factors, including rigorous regulatory scrutiny from CFIUS due to national security concerns and opposition from stakeholders like Cleveland-Cliffs. These elements contribute to potential delays, reflecting historical patterns where similar mergers faced challenges. Despite Nippon Steel’s target to close the deal by the end of 2024, there is a low likelihood of meeting the deadline due to these obstacles. However, strategic actions such as concessions or negotiations could alter this prediction, and any geopolitical changes could also influence the outcome positively by reducing hurdles or expediting the process. Overall, the complex regulatory and political landscape makes the prediction of an official announcement by January 21, 2025, optimistic yet uncertain.
Runtime: 217 seconds.
Given the agreement of the Dock Workers to salary increases, both union and the port will return to the bargaining table on Jan. 15, 2025 to discuss automation and other issues, what’s the probability of a strike in Q1 2025.
Welcome to the Multi-AI Oracle. Today, 33%, down from 48% yesterday.
Obtaining outside newsfeed. Summarizing outside newsfeed:
“Recent developments indicate that American dockworkers have ended a three-day strike after reaching a tentative agreement with their employers, which includes a 62% salary increase over six years. Key negotiations will resume on January 15, 2025, focusing on unresolved issues such as automation, which could affect the probability of another strike in Q1 2025. The potential impact of a future strike could be significant for various industries and consumer goods, depending on the outcomes of these upcoming negotiations. However, it’s important to approach these reports cautiously, as they might contain unverified information.”
Fact-checking news summary:
Here are the specific facts stated in the summary, along with their evaluations:
1. **Fact:** American dockworkers have ended a three-day strike.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, based on the summary.
– **Relevance to Outcome (True/False):** True, as the end of the strike relates to the likelihood of future strikes.
2. **Fact:** A tentative agreement includes a 62% salary increase over six years.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, according to the summary.
– **Relevance to Outcome (True/False):** True, a significant salary increase could influence labor relations and the probability of future strikes.
3. **Fact:** Key negotiations will resume on January 15, 2025.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, based on the information provided.
– **Relevance to Outcome (True/False):** True, as future negotiations can impact the likelihood of a strike.
4. **Fact:** Negotiations will focus on unresolved issues like automation.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, according to the summary.
– **Relevance to Outcome (True/False):** True, as unresolved issues could lead to further disagreements or strikes.
5. **Fact:** The outcome of negotiations could affect the probability of another strike in Q1 2025.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, logically inferred from labor relations and negotiation outcomes.
– **Relevance to Outcome (True/False):** True, as negotiations outcomes directly impact labor actions such as strikes.
6. **Fact:** A future strike could have a significant impact on various industries and consumer goods.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, strikes in key sectors often affect industries and consumer goods.
– **Relevance to Outcome (True/False):** True, as the potential impact of a strike is relevant to understanding the consequences of labor actions.
7. **Fact:** Reports about these events might contain unverified information.
– **Correct (True/False):** True, as the summary itself advises caution with potentially unverified information.
– **Relevance to Outcome (True/False):** False, while important for credibility, this does not directly affect the probability of a strike itself.
Fact-checked summary: The American dockworkers have ended a three-day strike, and a tentative agreement includes a 62% salary increase over six years, which could influence the likelihood of future strikes. Key negotiations will resume on January 15, 2025, focusing on unresolved issues such as automation, which may impact the probability of another strike in Q1 2025. The outcome of these negotiations could directly affect labor actions, with a potential strike having significant repercussions on various industries and consumer goods.
OpenAI gives a base rate of 0.3
The following were considered in order to produce this base rate:
The base rate of 0.3 takes into account the historical frequency of strikes in similar labor negotiation contexts, particularly from dockworkers. Considering the recent resolution of a strike with a significant salary increase, there might be a temporary easing of tensions. However, unresolved issues like automation remain contentious. Historically, labor disputes that resume negotiations with unresolved issues have about a 30% chance of resulting in further labor actions like strikes, especially if negotiations do not progress significantly.
Some potential divergent considerations that might affect the base rate: Factors that could alter this base rate include successful negotiation tactics that focus on collaboration and compromise, potentially leading to a peaceful resolution much lower than the base rate. Additionally, if external economic pressures diminish, or if there are effective third-party mediations, the likelihood of a strike could decrease. Conversely, if the initially positive reaction to the salary increase diminishes and unresolved issues like automation become more critical in workers’ eyes, the likelihood of a strike could increase.
The following chain of events are necessary for the question to resolve positively:
– Negotiations on January 15, 2025, fail to address the unresolved issues satisfactorily, such as automation, leading to dissatisfaction among dockworkers. (Moderate likelihood)
– The union leadership fails to keep the workforce united, or there is significant pressure from union members demanding action such as a strike. (Low to Moderate likelihood)
– There are no significant interventions by government or mediation bodies to prevent a strike. (Moderate likelihood)
– Other external factors, such as economic conditions or pressure from employers, exacerbate tensions and make a strike more appealing to workers. (Low likelihood)
Querying Perplexity… (Error: Perplexity is not returning an array)
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 5)
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.35 – confidence: 6)
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.3 – confidence: 6)
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.25 – confidence: 6)
Median from LLMs: 0.33
Base rate: 0.3 (from OpenAI)
SD: 0.04
Confidence: 6
Conf Mode: Normal
Mellers: 0.26
Reverse Mellers: 0.38
Theory of Mind: 0.4 (What did the LLMs think other LLMs predicted?)
Beta Distribution: 0.27
Close Type: B (B = cautious # closer to 50%; A/C = closer to extremes)
# LLM responses: 4
Model value (not submitted): 0.33
We queried Claude, Mistral, Cohere, OpenAI (with news sourced from AskNews). A summary of what the responding AIs considered is as follows:
The likelihood of a strike in Q1 2025 hinges on several factors, blending historical patterns with recent developments. Historically, the base probability of strikes in similar contexts is around 30%, stemming from unresolved labor disputes. Although the recent agreement with a notable 62% salary increase over six years temporarily mitigated financial tensions, the looming topic of automation remains a significant unresolved conflict poised to resurface in January 2025 negotiations. The short time frame until these discussions, paired with the successful resolution of salary issues, suggests a potential reduction in strike likelihood to 25% if negotiations succeed. However, union solidarity emboldened by past successes, external economic pressures, and high stakes related to automation could amplify the probability of strike actions if these issues aren’t adequately settled. Conversely, effective mediation, economic improvements, or strategic avoidance by union leaders and employers aiming for stability could forestall a strike.
Runtime: 154 seconds.
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Guide to our Multi-AI Oracle’s Reports
Median: We collect the output values from the LLMs in an array. We then take the median value. This is between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0.15 = 15%).
Base rate: Currently we take OpenAI’s value as the base rate. We are working on a better value using a different prompt that takes into account process. The base rate helps to determine if the median makes sense.
SD: The standard deviation between the median and the base rate.
Confidence: We query each of the LLMs on how confident they are of their predictions (between 0 and 10) and take a median. Because the LLMs tend to be overconfident, we take anything lower than 6 as being low confidence. This factors into the overall model.
Conf Mode: Based on the confidence value. >=9 is high confidence. Below 6 is low confidence (this is also triggered by an exceptionally high SD).
Mellers: This refers to Barbara Mellers, specifically a paper she wrote that includes a formula for moving values towards an extreme (i.e. 0 or 1).
Reverse Mellers: This uses the formula from above, but with a sub-1 coefficient to move the values closer to 50%.
Theory of Mind: We ask the LLMs what they think other LLMs would predict. We hope that this makes them consider the questions more deeply.
Beta Distribution: Currently unused, but possibly of interest. This is based on the median, the base rate and the SD.
Close Type: We noticed that the appropriate base case for some questions is closer to the extremes, while others are closer to 50%. When we have a low confidence value, this helps us to determine whether to extremize or de-extremize the value. ‘A’ implies closer to zero. ‘B’ implies closer to 50%. ‘C’ implies closer to 100%.
# LLM Responses: The count of LLMs that responded. We query 5 currently, but they have a relatively high API failure rate.
Model value: For normal confidence mode, this is the median. For high confidence, this is the Mellers value. For low confidence, this is either the Mellers or Reverse Mellers (depending on the Close Type).
